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2541. Nepal's New Political Landscape

Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal's Maoists crowned their transition from under- ground insurgency to open politics with a convincing victory in 10 April 2008 constituent assembly (CA) elections. Their surprise win has thrown other parties into confusion, with the major mainstream ones unwilling to recognise their defeat and participate in a Maoist-led government, despite clear pre-election and constitutional commitments to maintaining cross-party unity. The CA nearly unanimously ended the monarchy at its first sitting and gave birth to the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal. However, extended, unedifying haggling over government-formation suggests the consensus-based approach to the constitutional process will be hard to implement. Building a lasting peace and delivering the change voters called for requires all parties to accept the new situation and cooperate under a Maoist-led government, in particular to deal with issues scarcely yet addressed including the security sector, reestablishment of law and order in some districts, land and local government.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Nepal

2542. The Security of Pakistan's Nuclear Facilities

Author:
Ken Berry
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
International concern over the security of Pakistan's nuclear facilities has significantly increased with recent turmoil there. But how justified is this concern? Pakistan carries out a full range of activities relating to nuclear weapons: from mining and milling raw materials; through the production of heavy water, tritium, highly enriched uranium and plutonium; to weaponization. It also has an advanced missile program. Yet little is actually known about the security of all these facilities, apart from the fact that they are guarded by a specially trained force of 10,000 separate from, but under the control of, the military.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Pakistan

2543. North Caucasus Weekly: Attempt on Ramzan Kadyrov's Life Reported

Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov on July 30 denied reports that he had been the target of an assassination attempt. “Those rumors are being generated either by the Wahhabis themselves or provocateurs straining for cheap sensationalism,” Gazeta.ru quoted Kadyrov as saying during a meeting with Chechnya's education and science minister, Anzor Muzaev. The Chechen president insisted that the situation in the republic is peaceful and stable. “Naturally, there is a circle of persons whom this [situation] doesn't suit,” he said. “This sort of verbiage has only one goal—to destabilize the situation in the region. These provocative fantasies are engendered by ideologists of the extremists and their henchmen. Jackals who don't have the guts to go into the woods themselves.” The Chechen president's press service also denied that there had been an attempt on Kadyrov's life, calling the reports “provocations aimed against the Chechen Republic and its president.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and North Caucasus

2544. Societal Adjustments to the Threat of Terrorist Attacks

Author:
Seymour Spilerman and Guy Stecklov
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
Terrorist attacks in the United States and in Western Europe have been rare and the public awareness of the terrorist menace has largely been molded by a few horrific events. In contrast, other countries have experienced chronic terrorism, with attacks on busses, restaurants, coffee shops, and retail establishments. In this paper we assess the impact of terrorism on civilian society in the United States, Northern Ireland, and Israel. We examine the psychological effects, the adaptations made by individuals to enhance their safety, and the consequent adjustments made by institutional actors and by commercial establishments to ensure continued economic viability. We review the various theories of societal adjustments to exogenous shocks, and point out that a very different formulation is required for the case of chronic terrorism than for the societal experience of a one-time attack.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Israel, and Ireland

2545. Resource Scarcity: Responding to the Security Challenge

Author:
Richard A. Matthew
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
For over two centuries, the social effects of natural resource scarcity have been the subject of lively debate. On one side are those who contend that the planet's resource endowment cannot support increased consumption indefinitely. In 1798, for example, Thomas Malthus wrote An Essay on the Principle of Population, in which he argued “that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man.” The imbalance between human needs and food availability, Malthus predicted, would lead to famine, disease, and war. Writing 150 years later, Fairfield Osborn (1948: 200-201) reiterated this concern: “When will it be openly recognized that one of the principal causes of the aggressive attitudes of individual nations and of much of the present discord among groups of nations is traceable to diminishing productive lands and to increasing population pressures?” More recently, updated versions of the “scarcity conflict thesis,” developed by scholars such as Paul Ehrlich (1968), Donella Meadows (1972) and Thomas Homer-Dixon (1999), have been influential in both academic and policy circles around the world.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Demographics, Globalization, and Peace Studies

2546. North Africa: New Challenges, Old Regimes, and Regional Security

Author:
Claire Spencer
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
North Africa is often loosely defined, but for the purposes of this paper, it encompasses the states of the Arab Maghreb Union (Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia) together with Egypt.1 With the exception of Mauritania, this group of states lies on the northern littoral of the African continent, between the Mediterranean Sea to the north and the Sahara to the south. This contiguity, however, has not automatically made for a cohesive region; differences between political and economic trajectories have overridden the social solidarities that still unite the peoples of North Africa.
Topic:
Security, Islam, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, Algeria, North Africa, and Egypt

2547. Save the Arms Embargo

Author:
Peter Wallensteen
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
One of the first measures contemplated by the United Nations when confronting a new security crisis is to institute an arms embargo. Since the end of the Cold War – which liberated international action from the constraints of major power confrontation – there have been 27 such embargoes. In addition to these UN embargoes, there are also unilateral measures: The United States imposes its own arms sanctions on some countries (including Cuba), as does the European Union, sometimes directed at the same targets, notably Burma/Myanmar and Zimbabwe. Are they used at the right moment, and do they have the effects the UN would want? The list of failures is, indeed, long. The most striking is the arms embargo on Somalia, which has been in place since 1992 without any settlement in sight. Is it time to forget about this measure? Or is it time to save the embargo? If it is time to save the embargo, as this brief contends, what lessons can be drawn about the optimal use of embargoes, and under what conditions can they work?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States and Somalia

2548. Are Internationally Agreed Development Goals (IADGs) being implemented in national development strategies and aid programmes? A review of Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) and development cooperation policy statements

Author:
Sakiko Fukuda-Parr
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
Never before has there existed a stronger global consensus on a global development agenda, defined in the Internationally Agreed Development Goals (IADGs) that include specific, quantitative and time bound targets and incorporate the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Yet it is often noted that the IADG endorsements have lacked action due to inadequate 'ownership'. This paper explores this issue empirically by analyzing Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers of 22 developing countries and policy frameworks of 21 bilateral programs. The paper finds that there is a high degree of commitment to IADGs/MDGs as overall policy objectives but that action programs are selective. These policy instruments prioritize narrowed down MDG agenda of economic growth for reducing income poverty, social investments and good governance such as the rule of law, but many neglect the broader agenda of equity, pro-poor growth, employment, hunger, democratic governance and human rights principles. Links with national and donor policy processes can be strengthened by use in programming and evaluation processes. Security is not an MDG but a clear donor priority. Establishing quantitative targets for these goals, especially equity, democratic governance and security should be considered.
Topic:
Security, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Foreign Aid

2549. Fighting the 'Good Fight': An Assessment of Democratic Proposals For a New National Security Strategy

Author:
William D. Hartung
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
Many Democratic Party security policy proposals have been developed in response to the Bush Administration's actions. Ranging from Peter Beinart's The Good Fight to the Democratic Leadership Council's Progressive Policy Institution book to left-leaning think tank proposals, this material contains positives, negatives, and “sins of omission” that need to be fully addressed. The first priority is to broaden the definition of security to include protection from threats to human life, with the military as one of many tools available. Strength should not be equated with spending, but with the application of the right tools to the right problems.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States

2550. Police Corruption, Crime and Crime Reporting: A Simultaneous Equations Approach

Author:
Omar Azfar and Tugrul Gurgur
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
We study the causal relationship between police corruption, crime and crime reporting, using data from the International Crime Victimization Survey. Using a simultaneous equations approach we find a number of intuitive relationships, which are statistically significant. The clearest of these is that crime reporting reduces police corruption.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Economics, and Sociology
Political Geography:
Africa