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2521. The Philippines: Counter-insurgency vs. Counter-terrorism in Mindanao

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
U.S.-backed security operations in the southern Philippines are making progress but are also confusing counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency with dangerous implications for conflict in the region. The “Mindanao Model” – using classic counter-insurgency techniques to achieve counter-terror goals – has been directed against the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and has helped force its fighters out of their traditional stronghold on Basilan. But it runs the risk of pushing them into the arms of the broader insurgencies in Mindanao, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). The U.S. and the Philippines need to revive mechanisms to keep these conflicts apart and refocus energies on peace processes with these groups. That imperative has become particularly acute since the Malaysian government announced withdrawal, beginning on 10 May, from the International Monitoring Team (IMT) that has helped keep a lid on conflict since 2004. If renewed attention to a peace agreement is not forthcoming by the time the IMT mandate ends in August, hostilities could quickly resume.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and Philippines

2522. Chechnya Weekly: Russian Commander: Chechen Rebels Supported by Local Population

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The commander of the Combined Group of Forces in the North Caucasus, Major General Nikolai Sivak, said in an interview published in the newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda on May 20 that 17 servicemen have been killed in the region so far this year, which is an increase over the same period last year, Interfax reported. “Unfortunately, we were unable to reduce the losses compared to last year,” he told the military newspaper. “Since the beginning of this year up to 27 April, 17 people have died; last year [2007] 15 people died during the same period.” Sivak said that 32 militants had been killed since the start of 2008. "Last year the figure was about the same," he said.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2523. Chechnya Weekly: Attacks Reported in Ingushetia, Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Unidentified gunmen fired on a car in which soldiers were traveling in the village of Verkhnie Achaluki in Ingushetia's Malgobeksky district on May 29, killing two servicemen on the spot and wounding two others. One of the wounded servicemen later died in the hospital, bringing the total number of servicemen killed in the attack to three. The press service of the Investigative Committee for Ingushetia told Interfax that the servicemen were traveling through Ingushetia on the way to their base in Mozdok, North Ossetia, at the time of the attack. Russian Interior Ministry troops were involved in a shootout with militants in Ingushetia's Sunzhensky district on May 24. A local police source told RIA Novosti that no troops were injured in the clash and that there was no information about fatalities among the “illegal armed group” members involved in the clash. “Troops clashed with a group of nine gunmen, about one kilometer from the town of Gandalbos, and then about three kilometers from the town another clash occurred with another group of militants numbering about 30,” the source told the news agency. The source said that the militants were fired on with artillery as they retreated. A spokesman for the Ingush Interior Ministry said that the ministry had no information confirming that those armed encounters had taken place. The same spokesman said, however, that two Interior Ministry troops were wounded on May 23 when an unidentified explosive device went off in the Sunzhensky district. “They were both hospitalized and the doctors say their lives are not in danger,” the spokesman said.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2524. Beyond the Fragile Peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea: Averting New War

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Ethiopia-Eritrea impasse carries serious risk of a new war and is a major source of instability in the Horn of Africa, most critically for Somalia. Following Ethiopia's refusal to accept virtual demarcation of the border by the now disbanded Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC), Asmara unilaterally imple­men­ted it and forced out the UN peacekeepers (UNMEE), significantly raising the stakes and shattering the status quo. Its insistence on recovering terri­tory the Commission awarded it – Badme in particular – could lead to unilateral military action by either side but is only one of several war scenarios. The Security Council and key individual states (the U.S., in particular) must recognise the dangers of their inaction and advance a reconfigured political process with new determination if there is to be a change in the calculations of the parties, who appear to be dangerously content with trying to maintain a level of simmering but unpredictable hostility.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

2525. Discourses on Violence in Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Nicaragua: Youth, Crime, and the Responses of the State

Author:
Peter Peetz
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The paper analyzes the social construction of youth violence in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and El Salvador on the one hand, and the related security policies of the three states, on the other. In each country, there is an idiosyncratic way of constructing youth violence and juvenile delinquency. Also, each country has its own manner of reaction to those problems. In El Salvador youths are socially constructed as a threat to security, and the state implements predominantly repressive policies to protect citizens against that threat. In Nicaragua and Costa Rica, where the social discourse on youth violence is less prominent, the state's policies are neither very accentuated nor very coherent, whether in terms of repressive or nonrepressive measures. There are strong relations and mutual influences between the public's fear (or disregard) of youth violence and the state's policies to reduce it.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Civil Society
Political Geography:
Latin America and Central America

2526. North Caucasus Weekly: Chechen Rebels Carry Out a Series of Attacks

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Chechen rebels burned a Russian armored vehicle in the town of Bamut on June 16, the Associated Press reported on June 17. The news agency quoted the Chechen Interior Ministry as saying that a group of rebel fighters fired rocket-propelled grenades at the armored vehicle and that its crew managed to get out unhurt, but that a resident was wounded in the crossfire. RIA Novosti on June 17 quoted a Chechen law-enforcement officer as saying that three unidentified assailants had fired grenade launchers and automatic rifles at two Russian military vehicles in Bamut and that one vehicle had been burned out and a local resident injured in the attack.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2527. Chechnya Weekly: Ingushetia's Opposition Set to Hold “Decisive” Protest

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Ingushetia's opposition is set to hold what Newsru.com described as a “final and decisive” republic-wide protest in Nazran and other cities on May 6. The website reported on May 5 that the main demands of the protest are the freeing of political prisoners, the resignation of Murat Zyazikov as Ingushetia's president and the return of Ruslan Aushev to that post. The opposition has already gathered more than 50,000 signatures on a petition calling for Aushev's return as president.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

2528. Chechnya Weekly: Five Rebels Killed in Ingushetia; Opposition Postpones Protest

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Security forces in Ingushetia killed five militants during a special operation conducted in the city of Karabulak on June 11. Itar-Tass quoted law-enforcement sources in Ingushetia as saying the militants, who were holed up in a house, were blockaded by security forces, who called on them to surrender. Instead, the militants opened fire, and a battle ensued in which the five rebels were killed. According to the sources, the house in which they were holed up caught fire during the shootout. Itar-Tass quoted a military source as saying that one of the militants was killed when he tried to escape, after which the rest were killed in the battle. The news agency also reported that a woman was among the five dead militants. According to the opposition Ingushetiya.ru website, the woman killed in the battle owned the house where the militants were staying and her son was among those killed. Life.ru on June 11 quoted a law-enforcement source as identifying the slain woman and her son as having the surname Abalakov and saying that they had recently arrived in Karabulak.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2529. China's Thirst for Oil

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
China's need for energy is growing faster than any other country's. Record economic growth results in demand that outstrips domestic supply, leading Beijing to look outward to ensure growth and stability. Concerns about the global oil market have led state firms to buy stakes around the world, often in countries shunned by Western firms. The investments are an important factor in Beijing's foreign policy. They also drive concerns that China's actions fuel or exacerbate conflict in the developing world and cause tensions with other major oil-importing countries as it locks up energy resources. China's energy needs have led it to play a more prominent role in international markets in recent years. This has generated concerns about the potential impact on other countries' energy security, and global and regional security generally. These are largely overstated, but China could take a number of steps, as its policymaking and implementation evolves, which would help create a more cooperative international environment on both energy and wider security issues.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Beijing, and Asia

2530. Guinea: Ensuring Democratic Reforms

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le changement politique et économique réclamé par la population guinéenne au prix de près de 200 morts en janvier-février 2007 est largement compromis. Le limogeage du Premier ministre Lansana Kouyaté le 20 mai 2008 et son remplacement par Tidiane Souaré, un proche du président Lansana Conté, risque de compromettre l'ensemble du processus de réforme. Les déclarations apaisantes du nouveau chef de gou- vernement en faveur de l'inclusion et de la poursuite du « changement » ne doivent pas faire illusion. Le gouvernement Souaré-Conté a toutes les chances de remettre en cause les promesses d'élections législati- ves crédibles en décembre 2008, de compromettre le redressement économique du pays et d'enterrer la commission d'enquête indépendante qui doit identifier et poursuivre les auteurs de la répression sanglante de janvier 2007. Plus que jamais, les acteurs de la société civile, les responsables des partis politiques, les auto- rités religieuses et tous ceux qui souhaitent le chan- gement doivent opposer un front uni à la restauration du pouvoir sans partage de Lansana Conté.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Government, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Africa