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1761. Global Matrix: A conceptual and organisational framework for researching the future of global governance

Author:
Daniel Gros, Richard Youngs, Michael Emerson, Christian Egenhofer, Nathalie Tocci, Giovanni Grevi, and Jean-Pierre Cassarino
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Conceptually, Global Matrix advances in a systematic and structured inter-disciplinary (matrix) framework a research agenda for examining the stance of major world actors on the key policy dimensions to world politics (political ideologies, economics, migration, climate change, security and world view); drawing out evidence of cross-cutting linkages (between sectors and among major actors); and evaluating the evolution and adequacy of existing multilateral institutions in relation to the emerging multi-polarity, and formulating recommendations.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Organization, and Governance
Political Geography:
Japan, South Africa, Brazil, and Korea

1762. Strategic Oil Stocks and Security of Supply

Author:
Giacomo Luciani and François-Loïc Henry
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Holding strategic oil stocks is at first sight an obvious tool to address potential disturbances in supplies. Rationally defining the desirable size of stocks and designing rules for their predictable use is an elusive task, however. A key conceptual difficulty arises in the distinction between commercial and strategic stocks, because a physical shortfall in the oil supply will inevitably lead to an increase in prices. But if strategic stocks are utilised when prices increase they become indistinguishable from commercial stocks. This paper reviews the legislation in force in the US and the EU on the use of strategic oil stocks as well as the emergency response systems of the International Energy Agency. It finds that such measures have been activated rarely and in dubious circumstances. Alternative approaches are proposed consisting of encouraging companies and major consumers to hold larger stocks and seeking a cooperative agreement with oil-producing countries for mutually beneficial stock management.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1763. Armed Conflicts and Security of Oil and Gas Supplies

Author:
Giacomo Luciani
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The paper offers a systematic analysis of the impact of international or civil wars and violent non-state groups on global oil and gas supplies. Statistical evidence points to the fact that international wars are becoming increasingly rare, while civil wars remain frequent. The paper discusses the cases of the Iraq-Iran war and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, showing the limits to the damage that belligerents were able to inflict on oil installations and illustrating how the world was able to compensate for this damage. The Iraqi insurgency following international intervention to replace the Saddam Hussein regime is discussed together with other cases of civil wars in Nigeria, Angola and Sudan. The analysis supports the conclusion that oil and gas installations appear to be much more resilient to armed conflict than is normally acknowledged. History shows that civil wars have caused limited damage to existing installations, but they have hindered the desired investment in new development and attainment of target production levels. However, it is very obvious that government's inability to overcome or reabsorb violent opposition discourages international oil company investment even if the violence does not affect the areas around oil and gas installations.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Oil, Insurgency, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Kuwait and Nigeria

1764. The Functioning of the International Oil Markets and its Security Implications

Author:
Giacomo Luciani
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The paper discusses the link between security of oil supplies and the functioning of international oil markets. It is argued that wide and frequent variations in price are in themselves a source of insecurity for individual consumers and national economies alike. Furthermore, the impossibility of predicting future prices discourages investment and increases the fragility of the system. The paper puts forward several policy proposals to reduce excessive price fluctuations and improve security of supply at reliable prices.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
North America

1765. The EU and China's engagement in Africa: the dilemma of socialisation

Author:
Liu Lirong
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
China's engagement in Africa has obliged the EU to re-evaluate its own relationship with Africa. Since 2008, in an attempt to resolve the conflicts of norms and interests, the EU has proposed establishing a trilateral dialogue and cooperation mechanism between the EU, China and Africa, which so far has not yielded any substantial results. The differences between China's and the EU's Africa policies are mainly visible in two areas: aid and security. The contradiction between their respective aid policies lies in China's 'no-strings-attached aid' versus European 'conditionality' or emphasis on 'fundamental principles'. The contradiction between their security approaches in Africa lies in China's non-interference policy and the European concept of human security. Promoting common normative values and principles is at the core of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), which is important for the EU's self-construction at present. China's non-interference policy is related to its domestic security and stability and in this context it engages in its own rhetoric. In matters of principle it is difficult for both sides to make compromises or accept limitations imposed by the other.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Europe

1766. The role of EU defence policy in the Eastern neighbourhood

Author:
Ariella Huff
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The launch of the EU's Eastern Partnership in 2009 intended to signal a new, elevated level of EU engagement with its Eastern neighbourhood. Yet there remain several long-simmering and potentially destabilising conflicts in the region, with which EU engagement thus far has been sporadic at best. The Union's use of its Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) in the region and to help solve these disputes has been particularly ad hoc and inconsistent, wracked by inter-institutional incoherence and undermined by Member States' inability to agree on a broad strategic vision for engagement with the area.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

1767. The internal-external security nexus: more coherence under Lisbon?

Author:
Florian Trauner
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Since the entry into force of the Treaty of Amsterdam, the EU has intensified its efforts to establish closer coordination between the internal and external dimensions of the EU's security policies - i.e. between the fields of justice and home affairs (JHA) and foreign and security policy - based on the assumption that this serves the interests of all actors involved. More inward-looking actors, typically from the ministries of the interior and justice in individual Member States, believe that they can strengthen their internal problem-solving capacities if the EU uses its foreign policy instruments and capabilities in a targeted and focused way to improve internal security and to engage third countries in achieving its goals in the JHA domain. At the same time, JHA expertise and actors have become an indispensable resource for traditional foreign policy actors in terms of dealing with today's security challenges and achieving the EU's main foreign policy objectives, such as promoting the rule of law and preventing state failure.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Amsterdam

1768. Joint Interagency Task Force-South: The Best Known, Least Understood Interagency Success

Author:
Evan Munsing and Christopher Lamb
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Joint Interagency Task Force-South (JIATF-South) is well known within the U.S. Government as the "gold standard" for interagency cooperation and intelligence fusion, despite its preference for keeping a low profile and giving other agencies the credit for its successes. It is often cited as a model for whole-of-government problem-solving in the literature on interagency collaboration, and other national security organizations have tried to copy its approach and successes. Despite the plaudits and attention, the way that JIATF-South actually operates has only received superficial analysis. In fact, few people actually understand why JIATF-South works as well as it does or how its success might be replicated.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, War on Drugs, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States

1769. Chinese Military Transparency: Evaluating the 2010 Defense White Paper

Author:
Phillip C. Saunders and Ross Rustici
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The People's Republic of China (PRC) State Council Information Office released the seventh edition of its biennial defense white paper, "China's National Defense in 2010," on March 31, 2011. This document aims to communicate the latest information on China's military development, strategy, capabilities, and intentions. China began publishing defense white papers in 1998, partly as a means of increasing transparency in response to regional concerns about the growing capabilities and actions of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Despite the systematic release of these documents, many of China's neighbors and other regional powers continue to express concerns about China's lack of military transparency. The Chinese maintain that they are becoming more open over time and highlight the importance of transparency about strategic intentions rather than capabilities.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

1770. Analysis of the Threat of Genetically Modified Organisms for Biological Warfare

Author:
Jerry Warner, James Ramsbotham, Ewelina Tunia, and James J. Valdes
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Evaluating the potential threats posed by advances in biotechnology, especially genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and synthetic biology remains a contentious issue. Some believe that, inevitably, these advances will lead to a catastrophic biological attack. Others believe that, despite these advances, the scientific and technical requirements, as well as the fundamental laws of natural selection will prevent such an attack.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Biosecurity
Political Geography:
United States