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931. How do Canadian Hours Worked Respond to a Technology Shock?

Author:
Robert J. Vigfusson, Lawrence J. Christiano, and Martin Eichenbaum
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper investigates the response of hours worked to a permanent technology shock. Based on annual data from Canada, we argue that hours worked rise after a positive technology shock. We obtain a similar result using annual data from the United States. These results contradict a large literature that claims that a positive technology shock causes hours worked to fall. We find that the different results are due to the literature making a specification error in the statistical model of per capital hours worked. Finally, we present results that Canadian monetary policy has accommodated technology shocks.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

932. Precautionary Savings and the Wealth Distribution with Illiquid Durables

Author:
Joseph W. Gruber and Robert F. Martin
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We study the role an illiquid durable consumption good plays in determining the level of precautionary savings and the distribution of wealth in a standard Aiyagari model (i.e. a model with heterogeneous agents, idiosyncratic uncertainty, and borrowing constraints). Transactions costs induce an inaction region over which the durable stock and the associated user cost are not adjusted in response to changes in income, increasing, on average, the volatility of non-durable consumption. The volatility of total consumption is then a function of the share of the durable good in the utility function and the width of the inaction region. We are particularly interested in parameterizations which increase the precautionary motive for saving through an increase in "committed expenditure risk." We find, for an empirically relevant share of durable consumption and for all transaction costs below an upper threshold, that the level of precautionary savings is increasing in the transaction costs. Transaction costs have only a modest impact on the degree of wealth dispersion, as measured by the Gini index, as the associated increase in savings is close to linear in wealth. While we are unable to match the dispersion of wealth in the data, we increase the dispersion over a single asset model (Gini index of .71 for financial assets and .37 for total wealth) and we are able to match the relative dispersion of financial to durable assets, i.e. we find financial assets much more unequal than durable assets. We also match the ratio of housing wealth to total wealth for the median agent. We calibrate the model to data from the PSID, the CES, and the SCF.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology

933. Sponsors, Communities and Standards: Winning in the Local Area Networking Business

Author:
Martin Kenney and Urs von Burg
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Economics has treated technological standards creation as an outcome of network externalities and decisions on the demand side. They pay little attention to the supply side, where firms make strategi choices on which standard to support. These choices can ignite a contest between adherents to the different proposed standards. This case study examines the contest btween the Ethernet and Token Ring standards for local area networking. We find that the critical difference in explaining the success of Ethernet vibrancy was the nature and strategy of the standard's sponsors in assisting the growth of a community of firms supporting the standard.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

934. Secrets or Shields to Share?: New Dilemmas for Dual Use Technology Development and the Quest for Military and Commercial Advantage in the Digital Age

Author:
Jay Stowsky
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
For a brief period in the early 1990's the U.S. Department of Defense pursued an R policy that was explicitly “dual-use,” funding projects aimed at simultaneously developing both military and civilian applications of the same underlying technologies. The policy emerged from more than a decade of bipartisan agitation in Congress and segments of the military-industrial establishment, spurred by a shared belief that more advanced technologies now “spun on” from civilian to military applications than “spun off” in the other direction (US Department of Defense, Office of the Undersecretary for Acquisition, 1987; Gansler, 1989; Alic et al., 1992; Stowsky 1992, 1999). With the end of the Cold War and mushrooming budget deficits constraining defense spending, Pentagon planners saw dual-use development as a strategy for improving efficiency and lowering costs as well as enhancing quality by enabling the construction of sophisticated weapons systems off a more integrated civil-military technology base (US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, 1995; US Department of Defense, 1995).
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

935. Air Force Space Command Strategic Master Plan FY06 and Beyond

Author:
Lance W. Lord
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) develops the Strategic Master Plan (SMP) as the capstone document of the command's Integrated Planning Process (IPP). The SMP presents the AFSPC Vision, outlines a strategy to implement that Vision, and defines a 25-year plan. That plan is integrated across the AFSPC mission areas to provide the space capabilities required to achieve the Vision.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

936. The Truth About Missile Defense: Will Science Make A Difference?

Author:
Philip E. Coyle
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
In political Washington, one can get the impression that everything is “spin”, that there are no real truths. In the news media different views are aired and debated, but one view is said to be no better than another, and certainly political views cannot be proven the way we learn mathematical proofs in school.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

937. Boost-Phase Intercept: Billions Spent, Little Return

Author:
Victoria Samson
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The American Physical Society's July 16 study on boost-phase intercept missile defense programs provides an exhaustive and objective analysis of the science and technology behind the programs. However, it lacks one key element: the cost of boost-phase intercept.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and America

938. Stand-off with North Korea: War Scenarios and Consequences

Author:
Colin Robinson and Stephen H. Baker
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
North Korea's military threat and somewhat peculiar approaches to international relations have been a central difficulty in dealing with the isolated regime during the past decade. In the early 1990s, North Korea, formally known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), was expected by many observers to collapse, just as communist regimes in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union did.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Asia, North Korea, and Soviet Union

939. A First-hand Report: Cuban Biotechnology

Author:
Glenn Baker
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
John Bolton, U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, triggered a furor when on May 6, 2002, he stated, “The United States believes that Cuba has at least a limited offensive biological warfare research and development effort.” Two days later, I was meeting with a representative from the Cuban Interests Section on an unrelated matter when I posed the question, “How would Cuba respond if CDI asked to bring a group of experts down to learn more about these charges?” I had no expectations of hearing any more about it. But less than two weeks later, I was told that not only was there an interest, but that we were invited to bring anyone, come anytime, and visit anywhere we wanted. Clearly, Bolton's comments had struck a nerve in Havana.
Topic:
Security, Human Welfare, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Caribbean, and Havana

940. Effectiveness of Nuclear Weapons against Buried Biological Agents

Author:
Michael May and Zachary Haldeman
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Abstract:
This report describes the results of some calculations on the effectiveness of penetrating nuclear weapons of yield 1 and 10 kilotons against targets containing biological agents. The effectiveness depends in detail on the construction of the bunkers, on how the bio-agents are stored, on the location of the explosions with respect to the bunkers, the bio-agent containers and the surface of the ground, and on the yield of the explosion and the geology of the explosion site. Completeness of sterilization of the bio-agents is crucial in determining effectiveness. For most likely cases, however, complete sterilization cannot be guaranteed. Better calculations and experiments on specific target types would improve the accuracy of such predictions for those targets, but significant uncertainties regarding actual geology, actual target layouts, and knowledge of the position of the explosion with respect to the target would remain. Aboveground effects of the nuclear explosions, all of which would vent to the surface, are estimated. They include intense local radioactivity and significant fallout, air blast, and seismic effects to kilometers distances. It is likely, however, that casualties from those effects would be less than the casualties that would result from the dispersal of large quantities of bio-agents.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States