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251. The future of work: Towards a progressive agenda for all

Author:
Claire Dhéret, Simona Guagliardo, and Mihai Palimariciuc
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
The world of work is changing, fast. Globalisation, coupled with the fragmentation of production and value chains, ageing societies, and digitalisation are all having a transformative impact on European labour markets and are putting pressure on our social welfare systems. The challenges that these disruptions pose are tremendous, and policymakers are still unsure of how to address the implications of the changing nature of work. In this Issue Paper, the result of the European Policy Centre research project “The future of work – Towards a progressive agenda for all”, authors Claire Dhéret, Simona Guagliardo and Mihai Palimariciuc take an in-depth look at how labour is evolving throughout Europe and put forward a set of policy recommendations for the EU, which despite its limited competences, can still be the driving force behind a progressive agenda for the future of work. Their analysis focuses on four different areas: the impact of new technologies on jobs in various sectors; the rise of ‘atypical’ work; the impact of labour market transformations on the welfare state and social contracts; and the effect of policy responses so far. Based on their findings, they argue that instead of trying to push back against new technologies and forms of work, we must embrace the changes brought on by the fourth industrial revolution. At the same time, the EU must endorse and support policies that align welfare state reform with emerging working structures and the conscious and controlled deployment of new technologies. The overall aim should be to establish an inclusive and competitive European labour market that is reinforced by future-fit social protection systems. Previous industrial revolutions upended traditional structures and led to widespread social malaise and suffering in the short term, despite major socio-economic gains in the long run. Many fear that this latest iteration will leave millions of people in precarious employment or even without jobs altogether. But this is not a given. How the future of work unfolds is still in human hands. With sound decision-making, the EU and its member states can harness the benefits of new technologies, counter the polarisation of labour markets and make sure that no one is left behind.
Topic:
Globalization, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

252. Digital Governance: Is Krishna a Glimpse of the Future?

Author:
Arshi Aadil, Alan Gelb, Anurodh Giri, and Kyle Navis
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The state of Andhra Pradesh is recognized as a leader in using technology to improve the delivery of public services, programs and subsidies. Many of its innovations were piloted in Krishna District, which has been visited by development agencies and delegations from many countries. This paper reports on research to better understand the functioning and effectiveness of its reforms to strengthen state capacity by digitalizing service delivery. Against the wider backdrop of the use of Aadhaar in India, it summarizes Andhra’s reforms, which go beyond those of most other jurisdictions in the measures taken to strengthen accountability, offer choice of service provider, and incorporate feedback loops using the vast amount of data generated by a real-time digital service system as well as beneficiary responses. It reports the results from surveys of beneficiaries who receive food rations through the Public Distribution System (PDS) and/or pensions, and on the response of landowners and tenant farmers to the digitization of land records, another important program. The results suggest strong support for the digitalization of these programs. The way in which the reforms have been implemented has indeed led to substantial improvements in delivery (as seen by beneficiaries) as well as, probably, significant fiscal savings. Is this case, then, a model for other Indian states and for other countries? Perhaps yes from a technology perspective; there are many lessons that apply to a wide range of programs and services and that others can usefully draw on. The picture is more complex from a political economy perspective, as suggested by some of the particular features of Andhra.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Reform, and Digitization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

253. Fuel Subsidy Reform and Green Taxes: Can Digital Technologies Improve State Capacity and Effectiveness?

Author:
Alan Gelb and Anit Mukherjee
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Reforming inefficient and inequitable energy subsidies continues to be an important priority for policymakers as does instituting “green taxes” to reduce carbon emissions. Simply increasing energy prices will have adverse impact on poorer consumers, who may spend substantial budget shares on energy and energy-intensive products even though the rich typically appropriate more of the price subsidy. Equitable pricing reforms therefore need to be accompanied by programs to transfer compensation: depending on the situation, this can be targeted or universal. Successful reforms require measures to raise awareness-of the subsidies and the problems they cause, effective dissemination of the reform to the population, and rapid feedback loops to facilitate mid-course corrections. Digital technology, including for unique identification and payments, as well as general communications, can help build government capacity to undertake such reforms and respond to changes in fuel markets. The paper outlines the use of digital technology, drawing on four country cases. The technology is only a mechanism; it does not, in itself, create the political drive and constituency to push reform forward. However, it can be employed in a number of ways to increase the prospects for successful and sustainable reform.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Science and Technology, Reform, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, India, and Latin America

254. Economic Dominance, Financial Technology, and the Future of U.S. Economic Coercion

Author:
Peter Harrell and Elizabeth Rosenberg
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security
Abstract:
Coercive economic measures, such as sanctions, investment restrictions, trade controls, and tariffs, have become an increasingly important tool of U.S. foreign policy in recent years. Recent years have witnessed a strengthening of U.S. coercive economic measures, which are likely to remain powerful in the near and medium term. Over the longer term, purely commercial factors are likely to support continued U.S. coercive economic power. However, choices by both U.S. policymakers and foreign governments will be the primary determinant of whether coercive economic measures remain powerful tools of U.S. foreign policy over the longer term. Shifts in the nature of U.S. coercive economic power could prompt some shifts in the balance and nature of the type of coercive economic measures the United States deploys.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Science and Technology, Tariffs, and Trade
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

255. NextGen Network Key Takeaways: Prague, Czech Republic

Author:
Aspen Institute
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Aspen Central Europe hosted the Network in Prague in January 2019, with participants from Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Participants emphasized that there should be a focus on mapping where exactly AI can support existing professions, create new ones, but most importantly streamline the education system towards current trends and lifelong learning. It is essential to speed up the adoption of AI in Europe, as well as connect it with major challenges in society, such as tackling climate change or innovating healthcare, where, for example, AI can be explained by its promoters as a way of delivering better services rather than merely introducing a new technology.
Topic:
Climate Change, Science and Technology, Health Care Policy, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe, Czech Republic, and Central Europe

256. Automation and a Changing Economy: Policies for Shared Prosperity

Author:
Alastair Fitzpayne, Conor Mckay, and Ethan Pollack
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Part I of this report, Automation and a Changing Economy: The Case for Action, explores how automation has impacted and will continue to impact the economic security and opportunity of the American worker. But technology is not destiny. The impact of innovation on the American worker is mediated by policies and institutions. We can choose to create an economy that: promotes technological progress; prepares workers to take advantage of the opportunities technology presents; supports those who are negatively impacted by automation return to stable work; and shares technology’s gains more broadly. These goals are achievable with the right support, but the policy structures currently in place are inadequate. This part of the report, Automation and a Changing Economy: Policies for Shared Prosperity, outlines a policy agenda for addressing these challenges and opportunities. Doing so requires an all-of-the-above approach, from targeted, specialized interventions to those with systems-level impact; from place-based policies to national-level reforms to safety net programs. The paper identifies four objectives that guide its recommendations
Topic:
Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Automation, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

257. Automation and a Changing Economy: The Case for Action

Author:
Alastair Fitzpayne, Conor Mckay, and Ethan Pollack
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Technology fuels our economy, captures our collective imaginations, and promises extraordinary possibilities. It permeates almost all aspects of our lives. From electrification and the internal combustion engine, to search engines and smartphones, technology has changed how we travel, access information, buy products, and communicate with each other. As technology changes our personal lives, it also changes work. For generations, economic change has replaced products, jobs, and industries with innovative new models. The American economy has transitioned from agrarian to industrial, service to digital, and with each evolution, America has prospered even as it grappled with the profound challenges of change. The American ideal embraces the promise that economic progress can create an inclusive society in which prosperity is broadly shared. Work is more than simply a way to earn a living. It gives structure, dignity, and purpose to our lives. For this reason, workers should not be treated as a cost of doing business but recognized for their productivity and creativity. For too many Americans, the promise of work is not being kept. New technologies are creating great wealth for some, but we are simultaneously experiencing historic income and wealth inequality. Without robust policies and strong institutions, new innovations risk exacerbating the economic insecurity and political and civil divides that we are experiencing today. Emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence, machine learning, and advanced robotics, have the potential to automate many tasks currently performed by workers. Historically, automation has been an important ingredient driving economic growth and progress. Automation has enabled us to feed a growing population while allowing workers to transition from subsistence farming to new forms of work. Automation helped move us from a craft system to mass production, from blue-collar to white-collar to “new-collar” work—with better work, higher wages, more jobs, and better living standards. Similar to past innovations, these new technologies offer the potential to help us meet human needs while supporting new jobs and industries never before imagined. However, automation can also have negative effects on individuals and communities. Those who lose their jobs suffer economic, social, and psychological hardship. Communities that relied on single industries that have been automated have struggled to recover. New jobs are being created, but their geographic distribution and skill requirements often make them inaccessible to the individuals and the communities where those whose jobs were lost. This dislocation has played a role in exacerbating America’s economic, political, geographic, and social divides. The answer to the dislocations that can result from automation should not be to stifle innovation. Policies and reforms should encourage both the development of new technologies and the promise of work. Workers need access to the opportunities technology creates. Policymakers and employers can help by providing access to skills training, ensuring the availability of good jobs, and improving the systems that are in place to help those who will transition from declining to growing occupations. While there are many unanswered questions about what the future holds, this report attempts to explain how automation impacts the labor market and how to better prepare American workers to benefit from the changes to come.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Automation, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

258. From Battlefront to Cyberspace: Demystifying the Islamic State’s Propaganda Machine

Author:
Asaad Almohammad and Charlie Winter
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This report offers a unique contribution to the literature by examining the Islamic State’s production, dissemination, and evaluation of propaganda in the months running up to its territorial collapse. Utilizing a range of materials collected in eastern Syria during the first nine months of 2018, namely audio-visual records and interviews, the authors inspected the administrative structure undergirding the group’s Central Media Directorate. Key responsibilities of this entity included interdepartmental oversight and monitoring, as well as media production and distribution. Focusing primarily on infrastructure concerning security and production, the study examines how the Islamic State cultivated a high degree of operational security, fluidity, and effectiveness. By assessing these trends during a period of existential external and internal pressure, the report demonstrates how the group ensured the continuance of its influence operations. Beyond highlighting the utility of its guiding methodology and the operational value of its findings, this investigation enabled the authors to outline how the Islamic State might traverse the post-proto-state phase of its history. Among other things, the report draws attention to the increasing ascendency of diwan al-amn al-‘am (Directorate of General Security), especially regarding its role in instilling operational opacity, maintaining archives, and managing personnel. Taken altogether, the findings show how the Islamic State sought to navigate through critical trade-offs, such as efficiency and security, particularly in the context of its media operations.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Communications, Media, Islamic State, Propaganda, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and Global Focus

259. April 2019 Issue

Author:
Aaron Edwards, Paul Cruickshank, Stephen Hummel, Douglas McNair, F. John Burpo, James Bonner, Audrey Alexander, Bennett Clifford, and Caleb Weiss
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The murder earlier this month of journalist Lyra McKee in Northern Ireland on the night before Good Friday illustrates the fragility of peace in a region in which terrorist violence has persisted. In our cover article, Aaron Edwards writes that this was “the latest in a series of incidents that have raised the specter of a surge in terrorist violence in Northern Ireland.” In examining the evolution of the threat from militant groupings on both sides of the sectarian divide, he notes there has been a “blurring of the concepts of terrorism and criminality that challenges orthodox perspectives on the security landscape in Northern Ireland.” Our interview is with Edmund Fitton-Brown, the Coordinator of the ISIL (Daesh)/Al-Qaida/Taliban Monitoring Team at the United Nations. This issue features the concluding article of a two-article series focused on IED and WMD network convergence. The first article, published in our February 2019 issue, warned there was a high risk that profit-minded suppliers within vast, transnational IED networks may expand in the future into WMD proliferation. In the second article, Major Stephen Hummel, Lieutenant Colonel Douglas McNair, Colonel F. John Burpo, and Brigadier General James Bonner examine in greater detail the ways this could happen. Audrey Alexander and Bennett Clifford examine the threat posed by Islamic State-affiliated hackers and hacking groups. Through “analysis of several U.S. prosecutions of Islamic State-affiliated hackers and their networks, proficiencies, and activities,” they argue that “very few of these actors demonstrate advanced hacking or cyberterrorism capabilities.” Caleb Weiss examines the evolution of the threat posed by the Islamic State in Somalia, noting the group, “which is believed to only number in the low hundreds of fighters, appears to have significantly expanded its operations across Somalia, albeit from a relatively low base.” He argues the resulting reignition of tensions with the much larger al-Qa`ida affiliate al-Shabaab means “it is far from clear whether the Islamic State in Somalia will be able to sustain its operational expansion.”
Topic:
Science and Technology, Terrorism, United Nations, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Al Shabaab, and Doxxing
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Ireland, and Somalia

260. July 2019 Issue

Author:
Matt Bryden, Premdeep Bahra, Paul Cruickshank, Graham Macklin, Joana Cook, Gina Vale, and Robin Simcox
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In our cover article, Matt Bryden and Premdeep Bahra trace the evolution of the jihadi terrorist threat in East Africa over the last three decades. They argue that al-Shabaab’s January 2019 attack on the Dusit D2 luxury hotel compound in Nairobi, Kenya, “brought together three strands of al-Shabaab’s organizational DNA: its Somali provenance, its ideological affiliation with al-Qa`ida, and its growing cohort of trained, experienced East African fighters. The successful combination of these traits in a single operation suggests that al-Shabaab’s longstanding ambition to transcend its Somali origins and become a truly regional organization is becoming a reality, representing a new and dangerous phase in the group’s evolution and the threat that it poses to the region.” Our interview is with Catherine De Bolle, the Executive Director of Europol, who previously served as Commissioner General of the Belgian Federal Police between 2012 and 2018. Graham Macklin outlines what is now known about the Christchurch terrorist attacks. He writes: “In the space of 36 minutes on March 15, 2019, it is alleged that Brenton Tarrant, an Australian far-right extremist, fatally shot 51 people in two mosques in Christchurch in the deadliest terrorist attack in New Zealand’s history. What was unique about Tarrant’s attack—at least insofar as extreme-right terrorism is concerned—is that he livestreamed his atrocity on Facebook and in doing so, highlighted the Achilles heel of such platforms when faced with the viral dissemination of extremely violent content.” Joana Cook and Gina Vale provide an updated assessment of the numbers of foreign men, women, and minors who traveled to or were born in the Islamic State, examine the proportion that have returned ‘home,’ and outline the continuing challenges foreign women and minors affiliated with the Islamic State pose to the international community. Robin Simcox assesses the terrorist threat from “frustrated travelers” in Europe by examining the 25 plots (eight of which resulted in attacks) by such individuals since January 2014.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Terrorism, History, Counter-terrorism, Women, Internet, Islamic State, Youth, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, New Zealand, and East Africa