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32. Progress and Implications of the China-Korea FTA
- Author:
- Li Si-qi, Tu Xin-quan, and Liu Bin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- The article focuses on the China-Korea FTA, analyzing the background of China-Korea bilateral economic relations, the characteristics of the China-Korea FTA and more importantly, the implications and future prospect of this free trade pact. So far, the China-Korea FTA is considered to be the most comprehensive compared with China's previous FTAs and may be the largest in trade terms among all the FTAs concluded by Korea and China, playing a positive role in advancing economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. However, with lots of exceptions to tariff elimination and market access, as well as a 20-year transition period, the present version of the China-Korea FTA is far from the best in terms of the depth of liberalization and the scope of obligations on trade and investment rules. The recent bilateral diplomatic tensions due to the decision of deploying the THAAD missile system by the Korean government may also jeopardize bilateral economic ties between China and Korea, and further increase uncertainties of the China-Korea FTA. It remains to be seen whether the Chinese and Korean governments will handle this issue smoothly under the present sensitive political atmosphere and achieve substantial progress in follow-up FTA negotiations on services and investment.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, and Korea
33. Intra-Regional Foreign Direct Investment In SADC: South Africa and Mauritius Outward Foreign Direct Investment
- Author:
- Onelie B. Nkuna
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
- Abstract:
- This paper looks at intra-SADC (Southern African Development Community) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and focuses on Mauritius and South Africa’s outward FDI. Data from 1999 to 2010 are collated and qualitative analyses conducted. The study reveals that Mauritius’ outward FDI was mainly in the service sector and largely went to Madagascar, Seychelles and Mozambique, which were also the country’s main trading partners, except for Botswana. Meanwhile, South African investments were mainly in Mauritius, Tanzania and Mozambique, while the country’s main trading partners were Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Swaziland and Angola. The study also found the following to be potential drivers of Mauritian and South African outward investments, and hence intra-SADC FDI flows: geographical proximity, market access, liberalized markets, stable macroeconomic and political environment, natural resource availability, and policy and institutional framework. Graphical analyses and simple correlations reveal that trade and FDI are positively correlated for Mauritius and South Africa’s outward investment, suggestive of a complementarity relationship.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Foreign Direct Investment, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, and Mauritius
34. Etre cachemiri à New Delhi. L’expérience du nationalisme à distance (Being a Kashmiri in Delhi. Experiencing Long-distance Nationalism)
- Author:
- Charlotte Thomas
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- Armed combatant and leader of the Hizbul Mujahideen Burhan Wani was killed by the Indian Army in July 2016. This killing triggered a new phase of insurgency in Kashmir. In the Valley, the local populace started mobilizing against the Indian State in the name of azadi, (freedom). In such volatile context, the production of the national sentiment of the Kashmiris is documented from a distanciated perspective. Frontiers of the national group are explored from New Delhi, as well as the logics of differentiation and otherification of the Kashmiri group towards the Indian one. Kashmiri nationalism therefore more clearly appears in a negative definition (what a Kashmiri is not) than in a positive definition (what a Kashmiri is). The slight and incremental slip of the meaning of azadi demands is at the heart of Kashmiri nationalism. From an original demand for greater autonomy within the Indian Republic, demands of azadi now refer to the independence of the Valley – yet there are nuances that will be studied. They also convey an utter rejection of “Indianess” whether national or citizen. In that respect, New Delhi’s negating the political aspect of the mobilizations that are taking place in the Kashmir Valley has dramatically fuelled the national sentiment of the Kashmiris. The current insurgency that started in July 2016 has sped up the pace of the process. Despite the escalating tensions in the Valley, New Delhi keeps refusing to consider the political dimension of the local social movements, be they violent or peaceful. That is the reason why, beyond Kashmir and Kashmiris themselves, studying the political demands of the Kashmiri population does shed a light on the functioning of the Indian nation and the Indian state.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Sovereignty, Terrorism, War, Territorial Disputes, Sociology, Material Culture, Political Science, Regional Integration, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
35. Regards sur l’Eurasie - L’année politique 2016
- Author:
- Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, François Dauceé, Laure Delcour, Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, Aude Merlin, Xavier Richet, Kathy Rousselet, and Julien Vercueil
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, Sovereignty, War, International Security, Regional Integration, and State
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Belarus, and European Union
36. Integration in the European Union as a Double-Edged Sword for the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Elena Makrevska Disoska
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- By analyzing the impact of the economic crisis on the Western Balkan (WB) countries, the paper concludes that their export, inflow of remittances, and FDI have suffered due to the crisis. Regarding the rapid credit growth in years before the crisis, it spurred an increase in imports, which in the context of relatively uncompetitive economies, led to increased current account deficits despite significant remittances and FDI inflows. The impact of the crisis in the region can be explained mainly by their degree of European integration. But, the European Union (EU) is more uncertain to embrace the economically weaker countries, causing loss of EU credibility. It seems that the EU integration is a double-edged sword for the WB: in good times EU delivers its prosperity, but at a time of crisis, it is creating instability.
- Topic:
- Economics, European Union, Regional Integration, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans
37. Cuba-US Relations: Normalization and its Challenges
- Author:
- Margaret Crahan, Soraya M. Castro-Mariño, William M. LeoGrande, Soraya M. Castro-Mariño, Jorge I. Domínguez, Claudia Marín Suárez, Susan Eckstein, Jesús Arboleya Cervera, Margaret Crahan, Alberto R. Coll, Geoff Thale, Bárbara Garea Moreda, Ramón Pichs Madruga, Julia Sagebien, Eric Leenson, Robert L. Bach, Ashley Miller, Ted Piccone, Carlos Ciaño Zanetti, Mike Kopetski, John H. Coatsworth, Philip Brenner, and Colleen Scribner
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- This volume is a result of the dialogue between experts on Cuba-U.S. relations initiated by the Centro de Investigaciones de Política Internacional of the Instituto Superior de Relaciones Internacionales (CIPI/ISRI). Aimed at bringing together scholars and policymakers, among others, with expertise on the topic, the annual meetings in Havana have for years stimulated in-depth discussions by participants primarily from Cuba, the United States, and Latin America. The exchanges represent a wide range of perspectives and even of vocabularies. For example, the Cubans use the word blockade when referring to the U.S. embargo of the island and tend to hear “regime change” when U.S. officials refer to “democracy promotion”. In one respect there has been considerable consensus—that U.S. policy toward Cuba since the 1960s was a failed policy as the Obama administration eventually concluded and many experts have argued. The 2014 annual CIPI/ISRI meeting was in full swing on December 17, 2014 when rumors began to circulate that President Raúl Castro and President Barack Obama were going to make statements at mid-day concerning Cuba-U.S. relations. Tension mounted and at noon there was standing room only in the conference auditorium as the two Presidents announced on TV their commitment to the normalization of relations that had been ruptured in 1961. The room erupted in cheers, sobs, and the singing of the Cuban and U.S. national anthems. The experts were shocked. In panel after panel during the previous two days, they had speculated that there might be some relaxation of tensions, but no one predicted the initiation of a move toward normalization and the resumption of formal diplomatic relations. In the midst of the celebration Wayne Smith, who as a young Foreign Service officer had been tasked with closing the U.S. embassy in Havana in 1961, entered the auditorium and soon chants of “WAYNE—WAYNE” echoed throughout and he was pushed forward and asked to speak. Wayne had been honored the night before for his work to resolve U.S.-Cuban conflicts beginning when he resigned as the Chief of the US Interest Section in 1982 over differences with the Reagan administration’s policies toward Cuba. From that time forward he fought for a reconceptualization of U.S. policy toward Cuba as a scholar-advocate. Wayne simply said that the night before December 17, 2014 he had prayed that normalization would occur before he died and that his prayers had been answered. The moment catalyzed what many conference participants were feeling—a sense that after more than fifty years of hostilities the long road toward normalization could begin. It is the objective of this book to analyze the first two years of the process toward normalization of Cuba-U.S. relations from December 17, 2014 to January 2017. The majority of the chapters are revised and updated versions of papers presented at the 2015 CIPI/ISRI conference. A few of the chapters were commissioned afterwards to cover such topics as sanctions and claims. This volume does not attempt to modify the opinions or conclusions of the authors. Rather it lets the differences stand in an effort to better comprehend what has kept the two neighboring countries apart for so long and the nature of the challenges facing the process toward normalization. The authors analyze the causes of over fifty years of hostile relations interspersed with fitful negotiations that were marked by lack of trust, misperceptions, and miscues, as well as the challenges the process toward normalization currently faces. Since D17 (December 17, 2014) a bilateral Cuba-U.S. commission has been established, as well as technical working groups, in order to devise new agreements and stimulate the unravelling of the substantial accumulation of laws, regulations, and directives in both countries that have slowed the process toward normalization. Progress in introducing new regulations and directives has been slow and arduous. While some advances have been made particularly in terms of easing restrictions on travel to Cuba, as well as encouraging commerce and communications, much remains to be done. In addition, major impediments exist—the principal one being the U.S. embargo/blockade of Cuba which requires action by the U.S. Congress to remove. There are also major issues relating to U.S. preferential treatment of Cuban immigrants, continuing U.S. sanctions, as well as legal claims by both parties for expropriated properties and damages. The identification of mutual interests and agreements to cooperate has been apparent in Cuba-U.S. exchanges on security and environmental issues, among others. Both the Cuban and U.S. negotiators have admitted over the last two years that the process is difficult. Among the challenges are developing a common vocabulary regarding issues of sovereignty. Other questions are related to the direction of each country’s foreign policy particularly given domestic developments in both countries, for example, the level of political and ideological polarization in the United States and the actions that President Donald Trump and a Republican Congress might take beginning in January 2017. Add to this the stated intention President Raúl Castro to end his term as head of state in early 2018 and unknowns abound.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diaspora, Bilateral Relations, Immigration, Sanctions, Regional Integration, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Cuba, Latin America, Caribbean, North America, and United States of America
38. Economic Integration in the Middle East
- Author:
- Shahrokh Fardoust
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- The region has incurred huge economic and social losses from poor economic management and conflicts requiring massive military outlays. A policy shift is needed to deploy its substantial human, natural, and financial assets more efficiently through adopting economic and social policies that lead to more rapid and inclusive economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa. The four most powerful players in the region—Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, and Turkey—need to spearhead regional political and economic stabilization to address the root problems. Major regional infrastructure projects in energy, water, and transport are needed to better integrate their economies and expand intra-regional and world-wide trade. This policy paper argues that the major regional players should each follow a coherent long-term development strategy requiring four prongs plus cooperation: Reduce regional tensions and end conflicts through diplomacy and by recognizing that the current approaches are impeding investment and economic growth. Undertake significant economic and institutional reforms at home to remove binding constraints on growth, revitalize the private sector, improve financial access by small and medium-sized businesses, and improve the quality of education. Focus on well-targeted policies and structural reforms that would lead to significant reductions in youth employment and increased female labor force participation; and introduce cuts in military expenditures as regional tensions subside, and reallocate public investment savings to clean energy and infrastructure investments. Increase inter- and intra-regional cooperation and trade, initiate regional projects in partnership with the private sector in areas such as tourism, air and ground transport, regional energy and water, regional health and education, and research hubs. To support these initiatives, a regional development and reconstruction program supported by a 'mini-Marshall Plan' is urgently needed.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Reform, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt
39. Impact of China Slowdown on India
- Author:
- Geetima Das Krishna and Ankit Bhardwaj
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Policy Research, India
- Abstract:
- After three decades of double-digit growth, China is slowing as it is rebalancing its economy from export-driven to less-volatile domestic consumption driven economy. The paper looks at the impact of China slowdown on India through different channels. Even though India is usurping China as the fastest growing major economy in the world, Indian economy being a fifth of the Chinese economy and also less material intensive can hardly substitute for China as a global growth driver. China has emerged as the largest trading partner of India but India’s trade still remains less vulnerable to Chinese slowdown directly as India’s services exports account for as much as 50% of India’s overall exports (merchandise and services). On the other hand, China’s total FDI investment in India has been miniscule $1.2 billion till September 2015 and India’s infrastructure sector, with its massive investment needs, can be the natural destination for Chinese investments. India reaped the indirect benefit of lower commodity prices in terms of narrower CAD, softening inflation, lower interest rate, increased government fiscal bonanza, all of which contributed to greater macro-stability in India. It was also found that a 50bps decline in China’s growth rate is likely to lower India’s growth by 30bp in the short run.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Economic growth, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, and Asia
40. Schizophrenic Subregionalism? Method and Madness in India’s Border Fencing Project
- Author:
- Nimmi Kurian
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for Policy Research, India
- Abstract:
- A problematic set of binaries stands at the heart of India’s narrative on borders, one that has rendered its political signaling contradictory as well as virtually unintelligible. India’s border fencing project is a stark metaphor of this conflicted discourse, perching uneasily as it were between the feel-good narrative of rethinking borders as bridges on the one hand and an almost pathological fear of open borders on the other. This binary is what characterises India’s schizophrenic subregionalism, a discourse virtually in morbid fear of itself. The paper argues that this twisted logic runs the risk of turning against itself to subvert India’s subregional project itself. Its political fate is also critically linked to the larger question of how India perceives its role in the region and the extent to which it prioritises subregional integration as a regional public good.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Border Control, Regional Integration, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Asia