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101. Egypt's Judges in a Revolutionary Age

Author:
Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Egypt's tumultuous uprising of 2011 was about many things, but among the most central was a demand by legions of political activists and large crowds of mobilized citizens that public authority in the country be reconstructed to operate in a clearly accountable manner, fully governed by the rule of law. Egyptian judges might therefore be expected to look upon the post-uprising environment as a time when they can finally realize a vision that they have been articulating for a generation in the face of an imperious and impervious presidency: A state ruled by law in which they will be insulated from political pressures and private interests, providing full autonomy to individual judges and to the judiciary as a body to issue decisions that will be respected and implemented by all the agencies of the Egyptian state.
Topic:
Democratization, Regime Change, and Law
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

102. Digital Media in the Arab World One Year After the Revolutions

Author:
Jeffrey Ghannam
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
The Arab region is experiencing a profound media shift. The year following the start of the Arab revolutions–in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and violent uprisings in Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain–was followed by continued repression and threats to the exercise of free expression online and offline. But the year also saw great strides in the numbers of Arabs across the region turning to social media platforms and the ascendancy of online engagement. This report traces and analyzes the enabling of tens of millions of individuals–as well as established news outlets–to attract wide global followings with Facebook and Twitter updates and YouTube videos about rapidly changing events. The widely diverse and pluralistic online communities in the Arab world are creating and sharing content, calling into question the future of the many state-owned or self-censored media that provide less in the way of engagement that Arab audiences have come to expect.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Science and Technology, Mass Media, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia

103. Dallying with Reform in a Divided Jordan

Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Something is brewing in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. It is not so much that protests have been spreading since 2011; the country has experienced these before and so far they remain relatively small. It is, rather, who is behind them and from where dissatisfaction stems. East Bankers – Jordanians who inhabited the area before the arrival of the first Palestinian refugees in 1948 – have long formed the pillar of support for a regime that played on their fears concerning the Palestinian-origin majority. That pillar is showing cracks. The authorities retain several assets: popular anxiety about instability; U.S. and Gulf Arab political and material support; and persistent intercommunal divisions within the opposition. But in a fast-changing region, they would be reckless to assume they can avoid both far-reaching change and turmoil. Ultimately, they must either undertake the former one or experience the latter.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Democratization, Regime Change, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Jordan

104. Security Sector Reform in Tunisia

Author:
Querine Hanlon
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In the year since its revolution, Tunisia has achieved what no other Arab Spring country has managed: peaceful transition to democratic rule through national elections widely viewed to be free and fair. The legacy of the previous regime remains, however: a complete lack of transparency, no real parliamentary or government oversight, and unchanged rules of engagement and training. Reorienting the mandate and institutional culture of security institutions is imperative. Most in need of reform are the police and gendarme and the Ministry of Interior. Tunisia's internal security services are feared by the population and are themselves fearful of fulfilling their basic police tasks. How the ministry and its forces engage with citizens and with the executive and the legislature is also in urgent need of reform. Restoration of police services will help restore the confidence of the police and the public trust in the government. Tunisia needs no lessons about subordinating the military to civilian control. Security sector reform is critical if Tunisia's transition to democracy is to succeed in the long term.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Economics, Poverty, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

105. Lost in Transition: The World according to Egypt's SCAF

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since it assumed power after Hosni Mubarak's ouster, the performance of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has been, at times, head-scratching. Extolled in the wake of the uprising as the revolution's protector, many have come to view it as an agent of the counter-revolution. It often has been obstinate, before abruptly yielding to pressure. It values its long ties with Washington, from which it receives much assistance, but seemed willing to jeopardise them by targeting U.S.-funded NGOs. Suspected by Islamists of seeking to deprive them of opportunity to govern and by non-Islamists of entering a secret pact with the Muslim Brotherhood, it finds itself in the worst of both worlds: an angry tug-of-war with liberal protesters and a high-wire contest with Islamists. It displays little interest in governing, wishing instead to protect privileges, but erratic behaviour threatens even that. On the eve of presidential elections that have become a high-stakes free-for-all, the SCAF should take a step back and, with the full range of political actors, agree on principles for a genuine and safe political transition.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

106. Arab League's Syrian Policy

Author:
Müjge Küçükkeleş
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Suspension of Syria's Arab League membership in November 2011 could be characterized as a turning point in Arab league's 66-year old history. By condemning the Syrian and Libyan regimes for disproportionate use of violence against their own people, the Arab League has somewhat found rightful the demand of Arab people. the League has signaled with these decisions that it would move away from ideas of Arab nationalism and Arab unity in pursuit of further integration with the international system. On the other hand, the authoritarian state systems of most of the member states of the League make it difficult to regard Arab League decisions as steps supporting democracy. The League's ''democratic stance'' is an outcome of the pressure of revolutions as much as of harmony of interests among the member states. Even though strengthening democracy in the region seems like an unrealistic desire of member states, these decisions push each member towards thinking about change and thus pave the way for democratic reform process. The study at hand consists of two parts. The first part addresses the League's policy proposals, decisions, and reactions regarding the Syrian crisis and concentrates on what these all policy measures mean for the League as a regional organization. The second part examines regional dynamics that play a crucial role in the current crisis by looking at different positions of regional and global actors on the Syrian crisis.
Topic:
Political Violence, Regional Cooperation, Regime Change, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arabia, and Syria

107. The advent of 'Islamic' democracy in MENA

Author:
Khalil al-Anani
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The Arab Spring has reshaped the political landscape in MENA region. According to this new EuroMeSCo Brief by professor Khalil al-Anani, Middle Eastern and North African politics are now marked by the rise of Islamist parties either from the far right (Salafis and ex-jihadis), the center (the Musltim Brothers in Egypt) and the progressive and liberal Islamists in Tunis and Morocco. Khalil al-Anani highlights that Islamists were alienated under the despotic regimes and that after the Arab Spring they have significantly transformed its ideology, strategies and rhetoric, entering the political game. This transformation takes place in an increasingly competitive and fragmented political scene in which some Islamist parties have tended to adopt more pragmatic programs whereas others are still preoccupied with identity politics. Regarding foreign policy, an emerging commonality among Islamists can be identified: to seek a balanced relationship with western countries based on mutual respect and interests. Professor Khalil al-Anani concludes that Islamists will not necessarily become liberal but that they will have to succumb to the increasing demands of personal and public freedoms around the Arab world.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Middle East

108. Elections in Libya

Author:
George Joffé
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The election of a new national assembly in Libya is good news in several respects after a decidedly difficult transition from the elation that accompanied the collapse of the Gaddafi regime last October to the realities of reconstructing the Libyan state. Perphaps the first piece of good news is the simple fact that it actually took place and did so in a relatively peaceful atmosphere. Secondly, the electoral process has been judged by outside observers to have been free and fair. And, finally, the outcome seems to have been a victory for moderation, rather than an outright win for Libya's Islamist movements - unlike the situation elsewhere.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arab Countries and North Africa

109. The Arab Spring: How soon will foreign investors return?

Author:
Nathan M. Jensen, Persephone Economou, Paul Antony Barbour, and Daniel Villar
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The events of the Arab Spring have dramatically increased the risk perceptions of foreign investors. In directly affected countries, these events led to disruptions in economic activity including plummeting tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, all of which negatively impacted economic growth. While the economic impact was uneven across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, for the region's developing countries the growth rate assumption underpinning survey analysis in the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency's (MIGA's) World Investment and Political Risk Report for 2011 was 1.7%. How much will these developments affect future FDI?
Topic:
Political Violence, Regime Change, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

110. Tunisie : lutter contre l'impunité, restaurer la sécurité

Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Dans un contexte arabe marqué par des transitions bâclées ou sanglantes, la Tunisie fait encore figure d'exception. Depuis le 14 janvier 2011, ce n'est pas seulement la tête de l'ancien régime, symbolisé par l'ancien président Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, qui est tombée. C'est tout un système qui se trouve bouleversé, principalement dans le cadre d'un consensus relativement large. Mais les défis qui pourraient menacer ces progrès existent. Parmi ceux-ci, deux en particulier sont étroitement liés : restaurer la sécurité et mener une véritable lutte contre l'impunité. Pour le nouveau gouvernement d'union, dénommé Troïka et emmené par le mouvement islamiste An-Nahda, la clé demeure dans un dialogue large, permettant de réformer les forces de sécurité sans trop les provoquer, rendre justice aux victimes de la dictature sans céder à la chasse aux sorcières, et garantir une justice efficace tout en tenant compte des limites du système judiciaire en place.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Government, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arabia and North Africa