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92. Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril
- Author:
- Robin Wright and Garrett Nada
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Middle East faces even bigger challenges in 2013 than it did during the first two years of the so-called Arab Spring. So far—a pivotal caveat—the Arab uprisings have deepened the political divide, worsened economic woes and produced greater insecurity. Solutions are not imminent either. More than 120 million people in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen have experienced successful uprisings that ousted four leaders who together ruled a total of 129 years. But more than half of the Arab world's 350 million people have yet to witness any real change at all. Defining a new order has proven far harder than ousting old autocrats. Phase one was creating conditions for democracy. Phase two is a kind of democratic chaos as dozens of parties in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia do political battle (and in some cases physical battle) over constitutions. Ancien regimes have not totally given up, as in Yemen. The cost of change has exceeded even the highest estimates, as in Syria. So most Arabs are probably disappointed with the “Arab Spring” for one of many reasons. Nevertheless the uprisings were never going to happen in one season. This is instead only the beginning of a decades-long process—as most in the West should know from their own experiences.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Post Colonialism, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia
93. Peacebuilding Efforts of Women from Afghanistan and Iraq: Lessons in Transition
- Author:
- Kathleen Kuehnast, Hodei Sultan, Manal Omar, and Steven E. Steiner
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In transitioning countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq, women are increasingly finding their rights limited by state and religious leaders. Cultural and national stereotypes can be quickly overcome by the shared backgrounds, accomplishments, obstacles, and aspirations of women in transitioning countries. Women living in countries in transition value opportunities to network with women from other countries in similar situations. Women leaders from Afghanistan and Iraq have genuine concerns about the challenges facing women in the Arab Spring. Their valuable opinions are based on their own experiences of overcoming those challenges. It is essential that women work together and with men to further women's rights. Women must plan for a transition before it happens and have a strategy of work going into the transition process. Laws empowering and protecting women do not work if they are not enforced. International donors need a long-term view of women's programming, as much of the required work will take time. Donors should consider nonurban areas when working with women, and when possible nonelite partners, as these leaders understand the limitations of local conditions. It is possible for women's groups to find common ground with religious leaders.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Gender Issues, Islam, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
94. Arab Spring, Turkish "Summer"? The trajectory of a pro-Western "moderate Islam"
- Author:
- ees van der Pijl
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- The “moderate Islam” that has developed in Turkey could play a role in shaping the outcome of the Arab revolt that began in 2011. The modern Turkish state established by Atatürk after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire had to find ways to integrate Islam politically. Turkey was a late-industrialising country and the Islamic political current tended to have an anti-Western, antiliberal profile on this account. Two tendencies within Turkish political Islam are distinguished: one connecting religion to economic nationalism, the other primarily cultural and willing to accommodate to neoliberalism. The 1980 military coup geared the country to neoliberalism and cleared the way for this second tendency to rise to power through the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of R.T. Erdo ˘gan. For the West and the Gulf Arab states the export of this model to the Arab countries destabilised in the popular revolt would amount to a very favourable outcome. Gulf Arab capital was already involved in the opening up of state-controlled Arab economies, including Syria. Although the situation is still in flux, by following the Turkish model Muslim Brotherhood governments could potentially embrace political loyalty to the West and neoliberal capitalism.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
95. The reshaping of West Africa after Mu'ammar Qaddafi's fall
- Author:
- Roland Marchal
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Muammar Qaddafi's overthrow was interpreted in the West as the removal of a tyranny and an expression of regional democratisation dynamics. Concerned with their own interests, Western powers have not paid attention to key factors affecting political developments in the wider region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Democratization, Regime Change, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Arabia and North Africa
96. Patterns of Violence in Iraq
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Iraq is in an ongoing struggle to establish a new national identity, and one that can bridge across the deep sectarian divisions between its Shi'ites and Sunnis as well as the ethnic divisions between its Arabs and its Kurds and other minorities. At the same time, Iraq's leaders must try to build a new structure of governance, economics, and social order after a mix of dictatorship, war, sanctions, occupation, and civil conflict that began in the 1970s and have continued ever since.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Post Colonialism, Regime Change, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
97. The Arab World's Education Report Card: School Climate and Citizenship Skills
- Author:
- Muhammad Faour
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The youth of the Arab world have driven much of the popular upheaval that has overtaken the region in the last year. Calling for fundamental political and economic change, they seek to remake their societies into more open, global players. But if that grassroots momentum is to be solidified, real societal reform must take place.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Demographics, Economics, Education, Globalization, Regime Change, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
98. When Victory Becomes an Option: Egypt\'s Muslim Brotherhood Confronts Success
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Egypt\'s Muslim Brotherhood stands on the brink of an impressive electoral victory. After several months of suggesting it would check its own electoral ambitions, the Brotherhood plunged into politics with unprecedented enthusiasm, focusing all of its energies and impressive organizational heft on the parliamentary vote. Now, with the electoral list of its political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party, likely to gain close to (and maybe even more than) half the seats and perhaps cabinet positions as well, the movement is entering uncharted waters.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, Syria, and Egypt
99. Islamic Women's Activism in the Arab World: Potentials and challenges for external actors
- Author:
- Julie Elisabeth Pruzan-Jørgensen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Islamic women's activism may appear a contradiction in terms to many Western audiences accustomed to presentations of Islam as counterproductive to the promotion of women's empowerment and the situation of women more generally. Yet in the Arab world (and beyond) many different groups and individuals – as scholars, as charity and welfare providers, and as religious or political activists – work to empower women based on Islamic arguments and references.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
100. Now or Never: A Negotiated Transition for Syria
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- One year into the Syrian uprising, the level of death and destruction is reaching new heights. Yet, outside actors – whether regime allies or opponents – remain wedded to behaviour that risks making an appalling situation worse. Growing international polarisation simultaneously gives the regime political space to maintain an approach – a mix of limited reforms and escala ting repression – that in the longer run is doomed to fail; guarantees the opposition' s full militarisation, which could trigger all - out civil war; and heightens odds of a regional proxy war that might well precipitate a dangerous conflagration. Kofi Annan' s appointment as joint UN/Arab League Special Envoy arguably offers a chance to rescue fading prospects for a negotiated transition. It must not be squandered. For that, Russia and others must understand that, short of rapidly reviving a credible political track, only an intensifying military one will remain, with dire consequences for all.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria