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301. Data Quality for Measuring Political Protest and Government Change

Author:
Charles Lewis Taylor
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
For analyzing protest and government change, data need to be both reliably measured and valid for the task at hand. Data fundamentalists insist that nothing less than total capture of every event that has taken place is sufficient for analysis. That scenario is, of course, an impossibility. Rather, methods to measure the statistical probability that a sample is appropriate for its targeted universe allow empirical analysis to proceed.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Protests, Data, and Event Indicators
Political Geography:
Global Focus

302. The Arab Spring and Democratization in China

Author:
Youngjin Kim
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Since the fall of Tunisian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in early 2011, the outbreak of the “Arab Spring” has reasserted the universality of democracy. The question then of whether a “Jasmine Revolution” would occur in China has drawn the attention of foreign and domestic observers as well as raised the concern of the Chinese government. Today, even at the official level, the scope of debate on so called “Western-style” democracy is very limited in China regardless of the political standing of any politician whether conservative or progressive. It would be impossible to imagine in this case that there could be any debate over democracy that would lead to sweeping political reforms in the Chinese Communist Party. While on the other end of the political spectrum, a grass roots movement for democracy is also unlikely to develop. Most of the core figures involved in the democratic movement are either in exile overseas, under heavy restrictions at home, or have lost their momentum as time has passed by. Furthermore, possibly the greatest obstacle to any democratization movement in China is the reluctance of the middle-class. While often considered as a powerful driver for democratization in the rest of the world, it would be difficult to expect them to play the same role in China. Simply, the middle-class is the greatest beneficiaries of state-led economic growth and is unlikely to take part in any rapid political transformation. In this regard, the Chinese middle-class is far more conservative than that of any other country. To what extent then would a “Jasmine Revolution” be possible? There are four possible scenarios on the prospect for democratization in China. First, continued high economic growth is destined to bring about democratization. From the perspective of functionalism, improved standards of living as well as expansion of higher education, media, and an increasing consciousness of human rights will make democratization feasible within a certain period. However, such a viewpoint has some limits in that it blindly applies the experiences of the West and a few countries in East Asia to China without any consideration for its distinct history and social conditions. Second, there is the possibility for democratization due to impending social challenges mounting in China. In other words, if a combination of social problems builds up, the Chinese government would be unable to manage them under in its current repressive way. In this situation, the government would have to introduce democratic measures, such as freedom of speech and direct elections, to a substantial extent. Such a prospect though is unlikely to happen in the near future since high economic growth, increases in consumer expenditure, and the elevation of China’s international status will continue for a while, unless a major economic crisis were to occur in China or in neighboring countries. Even if such a crisis were to occur and the Chinese government implements measures for political reform, a soft-landing through democratization would not be guaranteed. Rather, it is highly probable that the unresolved problems would weaken the political control of the government and lead to political disorder. Third, a kind of flexible authoritarianism may be sustained for a long time. China has secured its legitimacy among the population through rapid economic growth, social welfare, administrative efficiency, and an assertive foreign policy. Simultaneously, it has maintained the stability of its system through strict control, systematization, and mass mobilization. Such a flexible authoritarian government is considered a prime alternative to Western-style democracy by the Chinese leadership and pro-government scholars. From such a viewpoint, it would seem unlikely to expect democratization in China for the time being. Lastly, there is a possibility that China would experience political chaos and division, a scenario that covers neither gradual democratization nor flexible authoritarianism. Authoritarian governments unable to actively promote reforms in the political system often fail to meet the social demands which have accumulated as marketization expands. Continued corruption and incompetence in the government leads to public dissatisfaction and might bring about the collapse of the system as in Eastern Europe. In Eastern Europe, countries had implemented ‘shock therapy’ solutions to fix the problems of the socialist system. However, such rapid changes, in some cases, caused severe chaos rather than bring about a smooth transition to democracy. This hard landing scenario cannot be excluded in regarding the future of democratization in China. From a realistic perspective, even though China cannot avert the flow of democratization in the end, top-down democratization or limited democratic reform led by the Chinese Communist Party is more likely as Chinese civil society has yet to fully mature. Nevertheless, as political reforms would weaken the Chinese Communist Party and increase social instability, top-down democratization is likely to be restricted. And this limited reform might even fail to solve social problems ahead. In this case where there is no alternative social force for the Communist Party and its leadership, the direction for the development of Chinese politics will be unpredictable and could bring about unexpected results. China will therefore go through a difficult transition period due to intricate conflicts among domestic political forces.■
Topic:
Social Movement, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Middle East, and Asia

303. Initial Impact of the Democratic Protests in the Arab World for the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
Boryana Aleksandrova
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
This report explores the correlation between the democratic protests in the Arab world and the Middle East negotiation process. In this sense, the content concentrates primarily on the development of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiation track as the central line of the IsraeliArab relations. Impressive in its domestic political nature and decisive in its immediate ruling consequences, has the dissent in Northern Africa and beyond produced any effect on the already long-lasting Israeli-Palestinian antagonism and its regulation? Can we expect a change in the pat situation, which had been formed at the end of 2010 after the fall of the Tunisian and the Egyptian regimes and the revolts following in the neighbour countries? Where and how are the crossing points between the internal and external negotiation context in the respective regional environment to be defined? Taking into account the specific regional, international/global and local dimensions of the Israeli-Palestinian contention, the answer to the questions above will be pursued by examining the new geopolitical map of the Middle East, the behaviour of the most influential third party for this particular conflict – the government of the United States of America, as well as the unfolding of the local Israeli-Palestinian conflict dynamics before and after the events in the region.
Topic:
Democracy, Geopolitics, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

304. The Smoke That Calls: Insurgent Citizenship and the Struggle for a Place in the New South Africa

Author:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
The origins of this research lay in the wave of xenophobic attacks which swept across South Africa in May 2008. The report looks at xenophobic violence and community protests together, drawing the links both empirically as one form of collective action spawns or mutates into another, and theoretically through the concept of insurgent citizenship. It combines an attempt to understand the repertoires and meanings of collective violence with a wide-ranging analysis of local associational life, local politics and class formation. The report highlights the critical role played by the police in spurring collective violence, and the role of the youth in spearheading xenophobic attacks as well as engaging in battles with the police and destroying public property during community protests. It notes that unless widescale strategies for social and economic inclusion are adopted, social fragmentation and violence is likely to continue.
Topic:
Citizenship, Protests, Violence, Xenophobia, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

305. What the Women Say: The Arab Spring & Implications for Women

Author:
American Bar Association Standing Committee on Law and National Security
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:
As the Arab world rumbles and shakes, women in the region are experiencing the good, the bad and the ugly that comes with instability, transition and crisis. From Tunisia and Egypt to Syria, Libya and Bahrain, women have been present and vocal in the street protest movements, standing shoulder to shoulder with the men, resisting the batons and tear gas, and being killed. While they made major gains in education and civil rights in the 1950s and 60s, Middle Eastern women were marginalized from politics and decision-making throughout recent decades. The current transition period does not bode well either. The political developments and status of women differ across countries. In the first of ICAN’s What theWomen Say; MENA Region briefs, we highlight common regional trends that threaten basic norms of democracy, equality and affect women’s abilities to participate in and influence the decision-making processes – nationally and internationally – that will determine the course of these countries’ futures and their lives.
Topic:
Women, Arab Spring, Protests, and Political Movements
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

306. Undermining Representative Governance: Afghanistan’s 2010 Parliamentary Election and its Alienating Impact

Author:
Noah Coburn and Anna Larson
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
Instead of bringing citizen and state closer together, the 2010 parliamentary election increased the distance between many Afghans and their government. "Undermining Representative Governance" details this finding, showing that a majority of research respondents are being alienated by a process that increasingly appears like a rubber stamp on the control of established powerholders. This is because the pervasiveness of ambiguity and instability throughout the election process made it seem more like a long and sometimes violently negotiated political process, rather than an exercise to select genuine representatives. This was exacerbated by fraud and the wrangling over the release of results, establishment of a special court, and inauguration of the new parliament. Overall, this has compounded an existing distrust of national institutions. The report draws on in-depth interviews in Kabul, Balkh and Paktya Provinces and includes various accounts of election drama, which demonstrate different and sometimes surprising ways that Afghan elections relate to local politics. It concludes that sustained and vigorous reform driven by both the Afghan government and international actors is now necessary if the election system is to broadly serve the Afghan people. However, genuine change seems very unlikely because the instability of the current system instead means that it serves the interests of the powerful.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Protests, Rigged Elections, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

307. Turkey: Misperceptions and the Healing Touch of Democracy

Author:
Doğu Ergil
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Mass demonstrations in late April brought out hundreds of thousands of people in Ankara and perhaps a million people one week later in Istanbul, an awesome scene on both occasions. Demonstrations of lesser scale are underway in smaller cities like Canakkale and Manisa—a trend to continue until early elections scheduled for July 22. The demonstrations were comprised of mainly women and middle-class urban people who chanted their allegiance to secularism and a modern way of life, which they believed to be endangered by the religious leanings of the incumbent government. But is this a legitimate fear? The same government, led by the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi or AKP), has been in place since its electoral victory in 2002 and no substan- tial alteration took place in the basic tenets of the regime. Now, with the prospect of the election of the first Turkish president from this party, anxieties are high. The fear that such a danger is imminent has to be sociologically accounted for.
Topic:
Social Movement, Democracy, Protests, and Oppression
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia