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11. Future Challenges for Israel’s Iron Dome Rocket Defenses

Author:
Ari Kattan
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
After Hezbollah fired thousands of rockets at northern Israel during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War, the Israeli government began a crash program to find a technological solution to the rocket threat. The result was Iron Dome, which shot down its first rocket on April 7, 2011, and saw large-scale combat during wars in 2012 and 2014. The system has been hailed in Israel and worldwide as a success, with the Israeli military claiming a 90 percent interception rate. Some American defense commentators have even touted Iron Dome as evidence in favor of ballistic missile defense. However, serious questions remain about Iron Dome’s true technical efficacy, both in terms of its past performance and how it is likely to perform in the future under different conditions. Because so much about Iron Dome is classified, information provided by the Israeli military cannot be independently verified. Analyses performed by outside experts—both those questioning Iron Dome’s efficacy and those defending the Israeli government’s claims—are inconclusive. Assuming for the sake of argument that Iron Dome did, in fact, perform as advertised during its previous engagements, it is far from certain that it will be as successful in future engagements, where the volume of rocket fire will be higher and the rockets more accurate. This paper argues that Israel may have already reached “peak Iron Dome,” and the system’s military and political benefits will decrease in future wars until another technological breakthrough is made on rocket defense. This is not to say that Iron Dome was not worth the cost and should not have been procured. But expectations about Iron Dome from the Israeli military, Israeli civilians, and interested parties abroad should be tempered. If they are not, Iron Dome’s decreased success rate in future wars may pose political problems for Israel domestically and give Israel’s adversaries a decisive propaganda victory.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Missile Defense, Hezbollah, Propaganda, and Anti-Semitism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

12. November 2018 Issue

Author:
Ali Soufan, Paul Cruickshank, Nuno Tiago Pinto, Damon Mehl, and Michael Munoz
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In our cover article, Ali Soufan profiles Major General Qassem Soleimani, the long-serving head of Iran’s Quds Force who the U.S. government has accused, among other things, of support for terrorism and involvement in a 2011 plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States. Soufan outlines how Soleimani has masterminded Tehran’s efforts to project its power across the Middle East using a unique strategy of blending militant and state power, built in part on the model of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Soufan argues that with nationalist sentiment on the rise in Iran in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and the ongoing regional tussle with Saudi Arabia, Soleimani’s popularity would make him the natural front-runner if Iran chooses to adopt a military presidency. Our interview is with Patrick Skinner who during the decade after 9/11 worked in counterterrorism for the CIA in Afghanistan and Iraq. Last year, he began working as a police officer in his hometown of Savannah, Georgia, in an effort to make a difference closer to home. Skinner reflects on how lessons learned from his time as a CIA case officer and as a local police officer could apply to counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategy and tactics overseas. Drawing on thousands of pages of judicial documents and investigative files, Nuno Pinto outlines the alleged key role played by two Portugal-based extremists in a transnational Islamic State network whose alleged attack plans were thwarted by arrests in Strasbourg and Marseille in November 2016. The case raises concerns that European countries in which security services are less geared up to confront terrorist activity are being used as logistical hubs by jihadi terrorists. In the wake of the Islamic State’s deadly attack on Western tourists in Tajikistan in July 2018, Damon Mehl examines the threat the group poses to the country. With the Islamic State having lost almost all of its territory in Syria and Iraq, Michael Munoz looks at how the group’s propaganda efforts may evolve in the future.
Topic:
Intelligence, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Propaganda, and Qassem Soleimani
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Tajikistan, France, and Portugal

13. The Abuse of Obligatory Presidential Broadcast in Latin America

Author:
Andrés Cañizález
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
When Venezuelan opposition leader Jesús Torrealba held a much anticipated rally in September 2016, only one television channel, Globovisión, was willing to broadcast it. By then, the 24-hour news channel stood alone as the one major broadcaster daring enough to air critical coverage of the government. he speech was particularly newsworthy because Torrealba that day was planning to call for nation-wide protests in favor of a referendum on President Nicolás Maduro. The Venezuelan constitution allows for what is essentially a recall by plebiscite if citizens can marshal enough signatures in favor of one, but the country’s electoral commission, Torrealba alleged, was stonewalling the process in spite of the opposition’s success at collecting the signatures. He had hoped his speech could provoke demonstrations of irrefutable public support for the referendum. After only a few minutes at the podium, however, the transmission of his speech was interrupted without warning.1 President Maduro had ordered a blanket broadcast across all radio and television stations–what is known in Spanish as a cadena nacional. These presidential broadcasts resemble a US Oval Office address in style, but in Venezuela the law obliges both state‑owned and private media to carry the transmissions, which have lasted as long as eight hours. When Maduro invoked this law to interrupt Torrealba’s speech, Venezuelans had no choice but to listen to Maduro or simply switch off their TVs and radios. This is not an isolated event. The abuse of presidential broadcast laws, which was first witnessed in Venezuela under Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, has become a source of concern in several countries in the region, including in Argentina and Ecuador.2 This report looks at how obligatory presidential broadcasts have risen with a wave of populist authoritarian governments in Latin America, and how the abuse of such transmissions, coupled with other efforts to suppress independent press, has been a significant detriment to democratic deliberation. By looking at legal restrictions on this practice in the region, the report also provides some insight into how the abuse of obligatory presidential transmissions could be curtailed.
Topic:
Government, Media, Propaganda, and The Press
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, Latin America, Venezuela, and Ecuador

14. La Tiranía de los Pequeños Números: el Factor Individual en la Propaganda Yihadista

Author:
Manuel R. Torres Soriano
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
El propósito de este artículo es analizar el impacto del factor individual sobre la actividad propagandística del terrorismo, tomando como objeto de estudio los grupos de inspiración yihadista. Se mantiene la tesis de que la principal variable que influye en la acción comunicativa de estas organizaciones es la personalidad y habilidades de los individuos que desempeñan estas funciones. Este sesgo personal es fruto de las limitaciones estructurales del terrorismo, entre las que destaca el reducido número de personas que componen su militancia. Se analiza como la actividad propagandística se ve constreñida igualmente por la insuficiente cualificación de los propagandistas, su desconexión con el liderazgo del grupo, y la elevada rotación originada por la insatisfacción que producen estas tareas.
Topic:
Terrorism, Communications, Insurgency, Al Qaeda, Propaganda, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Cuba's Parallel Worlds: Digital Media Crosses the Divide

Author:
Anne Nelson
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
The Cuban government’s heavy-handed censorship practices are well documented, and evident in the virtual absence of independent print and broadcast journalism. Yet recently, many Cubans have shown themselves remarkably well informed about the outside world, in ways that cannot be explained by their traditional media offerings. This newfound benefit is the result of a parallel world of digital media, supported by ingenious Cuban workarounds. In “Cuba’s Parallel Worlds: Digital Media Crosses the Divide,” Anne Nelson analyzes the findings of two years of research, including extensive field work and on-the-ground surveys across the island. Nelson explores how the Cuban population has overcome restrictive information policies and limited infrastructure to access news and information. Indeed, the spread of technology on the island may be creating a new opening for long-stalled media development efforts. We are pleased to share this fascinating research in hope that it will not only inform the development of a more open and vibrant media ecosystem in Cuba, but also offer lessons for other countries struggling with similar conditions.
Topic:
Media, Propaganda, Repression, The Press, and Freedom of Press
Political Geography:
Cuba, Caribbean, and North America

16. Beyond Propaganda: Soviet Active Measures in Putin’s Russia

Author:
Steve Abrams
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
This paper investigates the role of Soviet-style “active measures” as an element of modern Russian “political warfare.” These techniques were commonly used during the Soviet-era, encompassing a broad range of influence activities, including: covert media placement, forgery, agents of influence, “friendship” societies, front organizations, and more. Today, in Putin’s Russia, these active measures are once again in use, updated for digitally interconnected “global information space.” The paper begins with an introduction to active measures, then discusses their role in Soviet foreign policy and the attempts by the American “Active Measures Working Group” to counter them. The paper then describes how the Soviet active measures playbook has been updated for the modern era, using three case studies as examples. The paper concludes with a discussion on strategy, reproducing a number of recommendations from key publications.
Topic:
Media, Information Age, Propaganda, and political warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

17. After the Arab Spring: How the Media Trashed the Transitions

Author:
Marc Lynch
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
The media played a key role in mobilizing the Arab uprisings of 2010-11, but played a far more negative role in the transitions which ensued. Rather than constituting new public spheres for the negotiation of new identities and institutions, or acting as watchdogs on the emergent regimes, the media in most Arab states contributed to social polarization, popular discontent, and the resurgence of old regimes. While the potentially destructive role of media can be found in all attempted democratic transitions, the Arab cases had several unique characteristics, including the prominent role of transnational broadcasting, the new social media environment, and divisive questions about Islamist movements. This article traces the role of the media in the Arab transitions across three distinct levels: transnational broadcasting, domestic public and private broadcasting, and social media. All three played destructive roles, with transnational television becoming a weapon for proxy wars by regional powers, national media being captured by old elites and private interests, and social media encouraging polarization and informational clustering. Very similar patterns emerge in Egypt and Tunisia, the two key potential democratic transitions following the Arab uprisings.
Topic:
Social Movement, Media, Arab Spring, Propaganda, and The Press
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Tunisia, and Egypt

18. rom Poisonous Weeds to Endangered Species: Shenghuo TV, Media Ecology and Stability Maintenance

Author:
Wanning Sun
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
he most common framework through which we under- stand media communication and political/social stability in China is that of hegemony and control. This characterization may have served us well in documenting how the mandate for stability often results in censorship, regulation and restriction, but it has two major faults: First, the focus on crackdowns, bans and censorship usually tells us something about what the party-state does not like, but does not convey much about what it does like. Second, it often obscures the routine ways the party-state and the market work together to shore up ideological domination and maintain stability. In this analysis of the policies, economics and content of a broad range of television programmes, I suggest that we look at the media and communication as an ideological-ecological system in order to arrive at a more nu- anced understanding of the relationship between China’s media prac- tices and its ongoing objectives.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Media, Propaganda, and State Media
Political Geography:
China and Asia

19. China’s Responsiveness to Internet Opinion: A Double-Edged Sword

Author:
Jonathan Hassid
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Despite its authoritarian bent, the Chinese government quickly and actively moves to respond to public pressure over mis- deeds revealed and discussed on the internet. Netizens have reacted with dismay to news about natural and man-made disasters, official corruption, abuse of the legal system and other prominent issues. Yet in spite of the sensitivity of such topics and the persistence of China’s censorship apparatus, Beijing usually acts to quickly address these problems rather than sweeping them under the rug. This paper dis- cusses the implications of China’s responsiveness to online opinion. While the advantages of a responsive government are clear, there are also potential dangers lurking in Beijing’s quickness to be swayed by online mass opinion. First, online opinion makers are demographical- ly skewed toward the relative “winners” in China’s economic reforms, a process that creates short-term stability but potentially ensures that in the long run the concerns of less fortunate citizens are ignored. And, second, the increasing power of internet commentary risks warping the slow, fitful – but genuine – progress that China has made in recent years toward reforming its political and legal systems.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Media, Propaganda, and State Media
Political Geography:
China and Asia

20. Winning Hearts and Minds? Cadres as Microbloggers in China

Author:
Ashley Esarey
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
China’s local governments are facing a crisis of public con- fidence and have struggled to handle political dissent and popular protests. In an attempt to promote political stability, local officials around the country have utilized Twitter-like microblog sites (, weibo) to upgrade their capability to influence citizens and engage in rapid information management. Through the analysis of microblog- ging by prominent propagandists whose identities and professions are known to the public, this article finds some evidence that microblog- ging could be helping cadres to win hearts and minds, although such microblogging poses new risks to the state as netizens challenge propagandists and state policies in exchanges that reveal political pluralism and disapproval of state policies. While venting on weibo may enable people to blow off steam, the reluctance (or inability) of official microbloggers to engage their critics in meaningful dialogue suggests the limited utility of official microblogging as a means of furthering political stability through the improvement of state–society relations.
Topic:
Protests, Propaganda, Local, and Oppression
Political Geography:
China and Asia