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2022. Ein al-Hilweh: Lebanese Tinder Box
- Author:
- Jonathan Schanzer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Last week's bombing of a coffee shop and car-bombing attack against a Fatah figure in Ein al-Hilweh, a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, are the latest developments in a wave of recent violence in the camp. Al-Sharq al-Awsat has reported no less than nineteen bombings in Ein al-Hilweh since the end of September 2002. Asbat al-Ansar (League of partisans) – a predominantly Palestinian terrorist group based in the camp, with established links to al-Qaeda – is seen as the culprit behind this violence. In an apparent move to ignite heightened Arab-Israeli tensions, the group has destabilized the camp and surrounding areas. Mounting tensions in this long-neglected and impoverished camp could undermine Lebanese stability, aggravate its refugee crisis, and enfeeble America's efforts in the "war on terror."
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- America, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries
2023. Revisiting the 12 Myths of Central Asia
- Author:
- Martha Brill Olcott
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- NEARLY TEN YEARS HAVE PASSED since the countries of Central Asia received their independence. This impending anniversary is a good opportunity to look at how these states are managing the state-building process, and in particular what symbolic or ideological defenses they are offering for their actions. States need little protection from their successes but are always seeking ways to explain away their various failures. This paper looks at the “myths” that the leaders of the five Central Asian states are using to explain away the very disappointing results in both economic and especially political reforms and shows how U.S. policy makers have bought into some of these myths as well.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Central Asia, and Asia
2024. Going Too Far: Bush's Pledge to Defend Taiwan
- Author:
- Ted Galen Carpenter
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- When he pledged to do whatever was necessary—even use U.S. military forces—to help Taiwan defend itself, President George W. Bush seemingly replaced Washington's long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity” with a policy of strategic clarity. Although the president and his advisers subsequently retreated from his initial rhetorical stance, both China and Taiwan are likely to believe that Bush's original statement accurately reflects U.S. policy. That creates an extremely dangerous situation for the United States.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Washington, Taiwan, and Asia
2025. The Rogue State Doctrine and National Missile Defense
- Author:
- Ivan Eland and Daniel Lee
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Clinton administration underestimated the technological ability of several of the “rogue” states to develop long-range missiles and politicized its intelligence estimate. However, missile threats to the United States from any one of those states also depend on the intentions of that state and political developments that might affect those intentions.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
2026. Instability in the Philippines: A Case Study for U.S. Disengagement
- Author:
- Doug Bandow
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- As the world becomes a less dangerous place for America, U.S. officials work more desperately to preserve America's pervasive international military presence. This policy is evident in the Philippines, with which Washington recently concluded a Visiting Forces Agreement.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Washington, Asia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia
2027. Making the World Safer for Incumbents: The Consequences of McCain-Feingold-Cochran
- Author:
- John Samples
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Russell Feingold (D-Wis.), joined by Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.), have introduced legislation adding new regulations on campaign finance. Their proposed law bans “soft money” going to political parties, restricts advertising by for-profit corporations and labor unions, and greatly increases the ambit of federal election law.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
2028. Instability in the Philippines: A Case Study for U.S. Disengagement
- Author:
- Doug Bandow
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- As the world becomes a less dangerous place for America, U.S. officials work more desperately to preserve America's pervasive international military presence. This policy is evident in the Philippines, with which Washington recently concluded a Visiting Forces Agreement.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia
2029. At the Crossroads of Post-Communist Modernisation: Russia and China in Comparative Perspective
- Author:
- Linda Jakobson and Christer Pursiainen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- “Modernity ends when words like progress, advance, development, emancipation, liberation, growth, accumulation, enlightenment, embetterment, avant-garde, lose their attraction and their function as guides to social action.” By this definition, Russia and China are both still undertaking extensive modernisation – though by very different means. Why have Russia and China chosen such different paths for their post-communist transitions? How do their strategies differ, and how are they interrelated? When – at what junctures - were the crucial choices made?
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and Asia
2030. Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 1999-2000
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Both the number and intensity of humanitarian emergencies, as well as the number of people in need, will remain at about the same high level or even increase somewhat by December 2000- testing the capacity and willingness of the international donor community to respond adequately. According to the US Committee for Refugees, roughly 35 million people are in need of emergency humanitarian assistance. There are twenty-four ongoing humanitarian emergencies and new or renewed emergencies could appear in the Balkans, Sub-Saharan Africa, Russia, and/or Central America. Humanitarian conditions throughout the former Yugoslavia, Haiti, Iraq, and North Korea will continue to have a particularly significant impact upon regional stability, as well as on the strategic interests of major outside powers. Conditions are likely to worsen in Angola, Colombia, Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Republic of Serbia within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), excluding the province of Kosovo. The current drought in the Horn of Africa may induce a famine as severe as that of the mid-1980s. The humanitarian situations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DROC) and Sierra Leone are unlikely to improve significantly even if pending peace accords hold, and could worsen considerably if such accords were to fail. In addition to the emergencies cited above, several other major countries and regions may experience conflict, political instability, sudden economic crises, or technological or natural disasters- leading to new or renewed humanitarian emergencies: Resumed hostilities between India and Pakistan that expanded beyond the borders of Kashmir, as they did in previous conflicts, would displace a million or more people on both sides of the border. The countries of Central America and the Caribbean that were battered by hurricanes in 1998- especially Honduras, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, and Haiti-remain vulnerable to weather-induced disasters. Internal ethnic conflict would create substantial humanitarian needs in The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). The possibility of additional sudden economic emergencies also cannot be discounted. In Russia, drought threatens the grain harvest, and unless the outlook improves, Moscow will again need large-scale food assistance. Despite Nigeria's turn toward democracy, escalating conflict in the oil-rich Niger River Delta region could lead to widespread refugee flows into neighboring countries. The possible effects of widespread Y2K-related difficulties could aggravate current humanitarian emergencies or lead to new emergencies. The overall demand for emergency humanitarian assistance through December 2000 may exceed the willingness of major donor countries to respond. Overall funding for ongoing emergencies has probably temporarily spiked upward owing to Hurricane Mitch and Kosovo. Nevertheless, the focus on the Balkans could detract attention and resources from other regions with extensive humanitarian needs. Absent major new emergencies, the longer-term funding trend is likely to continue downward, increasing the shortfall. Government funding is likely to decline fastest for long-lasting conflicts where attempts at political resolution continue to fail.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Balkans, and Central America