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1701. The Inefficient Use of Power: Costly Conflict with Complete Information

Author:
Robert Powell
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Recent work across a wide range of issues in political economy as well as in American, comparative, and international politics tries to explain the inefficient use of power — revolutions, civil wars, high levels of public debt, international conflict, and costly policy insulation — in terms of commitment problems. This paper shows that a common mechanism is at work in a number of these diverse studies. This common mechanism provides a more general formulation of a type of commitment problem that can arise in many different substantive settings. The present analysis then formalizes this mechanism as an “inefficiency condition” which ensures that all of the equilibria of a stochastic game are inefficient. This condition has a natural substantive interpretation: Large, rapid changes in the actors' relative power (measured in terms of their minmax payoffs) may cause inefficiency.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
America

1702. New Horizons in United States Relations with South Asia

Author:
Christina Rocca
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
Good afternoon and welcome. Those of you who have received the invitation will know what Ms. Rocca is engaged in and what her background is. I simply want to express my personal appreciation and delight that we are able to host Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs Christina Rocca this afternoon. Ms. Rocca has specialized in issues relating to some of the most complex cultures and political conflicts affecting United States foreign policy right now, and as you might have noticed, her range goes from the Middle East, to Central Asia, to the Caucasus, to South Asia—and I know she has many stories she could tell us that we would love to hear.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, Caucasus, and Middle East

1703. India's National Security Challenges

Author:
V.P. Maki
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
Welcome everyone to this special lecture. It is for me a particular pleasure, as Director of the Center for the Advanced Study of India, to introduce our distinguished speaker this afternoon: General Ved Malik. It is difficult to introduce General Malik because his achievements are so many-and they all speak for themselves - so please forgive me if I go over material that you already know. One cannot but help mention that he has served as India's Chief of Army Staff during 1997 to 2000 and as Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee of the Indian Armed Forces during 1999-2000—and that he has received India's highest national award for distinguished military service.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, National Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
India and Southeast Asia

1704. CERI: Political Opposition, Nationalism and Islam among the Uygurs in Xinjiang Abstract

Author:
Rémi Castets
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
With a substantial Uyghur population, Xinjiang (East Turkistan) is, after Uzbekistan, the second largest Muslim Turkic-speaking area of settlement area in Central Asia. Annexed by China fairly late, this territory has a tumultuous history punctuated by foreign interference and separatist insurrections. Through strict control of the regional political system and a massive influx of Han settlers, the communist regime has managed to integrate this strategic region and its large oil deposits into the rest of China.
Topic:
Nationalism, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
China, Central Asia, Asia, and Uzbekistan

1705. CERI: The European Union's New Neighbours. Identity-based Strategies and Politics in the Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova

Author:
Alexandra Goujon
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Since May 1, 2004, the Ukraine and Belarus have become the European Union's new neighbours. Moldova is bound to follow suit with Romania's entrance, scheduled for 2007. Enlargement of the EU to the East has sparked debates on what relations the EU should have with its new border states that are not slated for membership in the near future. The discussion has led to the design of a European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) that blends a regional approach based on shared values with a process of differentiation taking into account the specific characteristics of each country involved. Since their independence, the Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova have developed different identity-based strategies that the new ENP hopes to address while avoiding the creation of new divisions. These strategies in fact oppose those who wish to incorporate European values into their country's political model and those who, on the contrary, reject these values. The relationship between identity and politics is all the more crucial for the EU's eastern neighbours since it involves practices with a low level of institutionalization, in the areas of nation-building, the political system as well as foreign policy. A comparative approach confirms the idea that the EU's new neighbours constitute a regional specificity due to their common past as Soviet republics and their geostrategic position. It also points up the differences between these states as they gradually transform into discrete political spaces with nationalized modes of identification and politicization.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Romania

1706. CERI: Eighteen months into Lula's presidency, how is Brazil faring?

Author:
François d'Arcy
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
This study, which examines the chances of success of the government of Luiz Ináci Lula da Silva, takes as its starting point the idea that the main obstacle resides in the structure of the Brazilian political system. Being unable to reform that system, President Lula has skilfully adapted to it, but not without having to forge certain unusual alliances. He has, nevertheless, honoured the campaign promises which brought him to power after three unsuccessful attempts in a row, maintaining anti-inflationary policies and strict budgetary discipline, and respecting commitments given concerning public debt and privatised companies. This macroeconomic policy – which follows on from that of Fernando Henrique Cardoso – dominated his government's first year in office, slowing the implementation of new policies addressing social issues and sustainable development. So far, the latter policies would appear to point more to continuity than to radical change, a fact which will, doubtless, contribute greatly to their success.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

1707. The mysteries of Vietnamese "socialist democracy". Evolution of the people's assemblies and of the legal system since the launch of the Dôi moi

Author:
Matthieu Salomon
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Since the 1980s – and, more symbolically, since the 6th Communist party Congress - Vietnam has been engaged in reform, which is referred to as "dôi moi", i.e. renewal. While their aim is, first and foremost, to change the rules governing economic activity, these reforms have, since the 1990s, also been associated with political, institutional and legal change. Influenced, on the one hand, by endogenous constraints arising out of the necessary adaptation of the politico-legal environment and of the evolution of the power-legitimation processes and, on the other hand, by exogenous constraints born of the desire for integration into the international community and economy, the discourse of the Vietnamese authorities and the country's fundamental political texts have both been modified. It seems undeniable that, despite its weightiness and areas of permanence, the Vietnamese politico-legal system is, de facto, slowly evolving and becoming "normalised". The intention here is not to suggest that Vietnam is undergoing a "democratic transition" bringing it closer to a western model of reference. The aim of the regime may be defined thus: "to consolidate the single-party system while satisfying the demands for modernisation". By means of an analysis of the system of people's assemblies elected by the population and of the legal - i.e. juridical and judicial - system, this study attempts to provide an insight into the regime's capacity for politico-legal innovation and, notably, into its capacity to structure new arenas for debate. It examines the complex evolutions which have affected the rules and players of this too-often-neglected aspect of a changing Vietnam.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

1708. CERI: The socio-political effects of forced migrations linked tomajor hydraulic projects in China. The example of the Three Gorges dam.

Author:
Florence Padovani
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
The study of the population movements caused by the major Chinese hydraulic projects reveals the true extent of the change which has come about in relations between the State and society in China. The construction of the Three Gorges dam-which led to considerable controversy both within China and beyond - is a prime case in point.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1709. Policy Learning, Policy Diffusion and the Making of a New Order

Author:
Covadonga Meseguer
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This chapter surveys the role of learning as mechanism of policy diffusion in the context of the creation of a new political order. I discuss policy learning against the background of recent research on the diffusion of deregulatory and regulatory policies, and attempt to distinguish learning from other mechanisms of diffusion. I then survey the challenges entailed in testing this mechanism and set out my particular approach: a rational version of learning. I also report the results of preliminary efforts to test learning as applied to the diffusion of regulatory policies. I conclude that learning cannot be rejected as a plausible mechanism of the diffusion of policies, although it shares its explanatory role with less rational mechanisms of diffusion, in particular policy emulation. Further research and analysis is needed to test learning in either its rational or its bounded version, and in doing so to delve into the politics of learning.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and Politics

1710. El Islamismo como teoría política y de relaciones internacionales.

Author:
José Alberto Moreno
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The Islamism is the sum of theories and religious doctrines who fought for a harsh Quoranic interpretation and Shari'a (Islamic Law) applying, with the aim to transform the society to an idealistic return of the prophet Muhammad's time and manners. The present paper has a double objective: diffuse the main arguments of some scholars from this political thought and categorized the Islamism through intellectual periods and religious schools (Sunnism and Shiism).
Topic:
Development, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Religion