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1671. From Warlords to Peacelords - Local Leadership Capacity in Peace Processes

Author:
Gordon Peake, Cathy Gormley-Heenan, and Mari Fitzduff
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Initiative on Conflict Resolution and Ethnicity
Abstract:
The starting point for the research upon which the report is based has been our interest in the phenomenon of political leaders in conflict and peace building. In particular, this report has considered leadership in three countries that have attracted infamy for the protracted nature of their brutal conflicts - Afghanistan, Kosovo and Sierra Leone. Each country is now considered to have emerged from conflict and to be at formal 'peace'.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, Kosovo, and Sierra Leone

1672. Radical Departure: Toward A Practical Peace in Iraq

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
Progress toward a stable peace in Iraq and the withdrawal of US troops begins with the painful recognition that America's recent troubles are largely self-inflicted. This is due principally to the adoption of mission objectives that far exceed what is necessary or pragmatic.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, and Middle East

1673. Radical Departure: Toward A Practical Peace in Iraq

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
The key to enabling total US troop withdrawal from Iraq within 400 days is achieving a political accord with Sunni leaders at all levels and with Iraq's neighbors - especially Syria and Iran. The proximal aim would be to immediately lower the level of conflict inside Iraq by constricting both active and passive support for the insurgency, inside and outside the country. This would allow the United States to shift resources to the training mission and to adopt other de-escalatory measures - most importantly: a withdrawal time line. The strategic price of this diplomatic initiative would be a return to self-governance in Sunni areas, a guaranteed level of representation for these areas in the national assembly, an end to broad-brush measures of de-Baathification, an amnesty for most indigenous insurgents and for most former Baathists, and a de-escalation of the US confrontation with Syria and Iran regarding a range of issues. In conjunction with these diplomatic initiatives, the United States would announce a tentative time line for withdrawal of its troops from Iraq -- associated with training milestones. Also: US forces would end major offensive sweeps inside the country, adopt a defensive posture, and shift the emphasis of their activity to training Iraqi security forces. Finally: the Iraqi government would re-activate portions of the old army -- partly as a confidence-building measure, but also in order to (i) rob insurgent organizations of their recruiting base, (ii) augment the power of the new Iraqi security forces, and (iii) produce a better ethnic balance in the new forces (which are currently dominated by Kurds and Shiites). As new forces increase in capacity, US forces would be removed, further reducing a stimulus of insurgent action. Four hundred days - 57 weeks - is sufficient time to complete several Iraqi training cycles, including field exercises for many units at the battalion and brigade levels. Some division level training also can occur. Given sufficient resources (24,000 training personnel), 100,000 Iraqi security personnel can receive remedial training and another 80,000 new personnel can be trained and exercised during this period. Together with the full provision of all appropriate equipment, this development effort can yield Iraqi security forces that are several times more capable than those it controls in mid-2005. After thirteen months, the only foreign military assets remaining in Iraq would be a small monitoring and training mission with a security detail: less than 10,000 foreign civilian and military personnel in all. US troops should constitute no more than one-third of the military component -- that is, approximately 2,000 troops. This mission should be conducted under a three-year UN mandate and joint NATO-international command. In addition, the United States might maintain a 25,000-person rapid reaction task force in the region, but outside either Iraq or Saudi Arabia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

1674. Monitoring the presidential debates: Post-debate panels did not focus on hard issues

Author:
Senja Post
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Media Tenor International
Abstract:
After the third debate, network and cable news commentators and their expert guests differed in their opinions on who did better, after having been largely in agreement after the first and second debate. Media Tenor's Slant -o- meter analyzed the commentary following the debate on six TV channels. While ABC and NBC were moderate in their ratings of Kerry and Bush, CBS, FOX, CNN and PBS commentators were more vocal about their dislikes for one or the other of the candidates. Fox News presented the most favorable coverage of George W. Bush's performance and the most negative comments on John Kerry. While positive reports on Bush exceeded negative reports by almost 43%, the coverage of Kerry had an overall negative balance of 15%. Similarly, PBS's commentary featured 6.6% more positive than negative statements on Bush, while , on balance, comments on Kerry were 13% more negative.
Topic:
Government, Human Welfare, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

1675. Monitoring the Presidential Debates: Real-time Content Analysis Bush and Kerry Score with Clear-Cut Proposals

Author:
Senja Post, Markus Rettich, and Roland Schatz
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Media Tenor International
Abstract:
In tonight's TV debate, neither of the candidates managed to gain an upper hand in the overall discussion. There were no significant surprises on how each candidate views the issues that were addressed. Based on Bob Schieffer's excellent moderation, the debate was able to create a very clear image (almost 80% of the content was issue–focused) on the different approaches Kerry and Bush will use in tackling challenges in healthcare, economics, social issues and domestic security.
Topic:
Government, Human Welfare, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

1676. Monitoring the Presidential Debates: How the debates Affected the Candidates' Image on TV News

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Media Tenor International
Abstract:
Compared to last week's commentary, ABC increased its positive coverage of Bush, NBC was more balanced and CBS reduced the level of positive commentary on Kerry. CNN again rated both candidates positively (but Kerry much more so than Bush) while PBS broadcast a more negative evaluation of Bush and Kerry. On the whole, Kerry came across in a more positive light, but is very interesting to look at the difference between the major networks vs. cable networks and the public broadcasters. On NBC and CBS, Kerry was seen as the clear 'winner.' In the other news outlets, both candidates were rated either positively or negatively.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

1677. Report on First 2004 Presidential Debate

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Media Tenor International
Abstract:
And the winner is . . . Kerry needed a clear victory in the first TV debate to gain momentum. This was not apparent. The burden on proof was clearly on Kerry to attack Bush's reputation and turn the line of argument to his favor. But the incumbent was equally vigorous in pointing out his achievements – in Iraq, in his support for the troops and in the fight against terrorism. Bush successfully cornered Kerry on flip–flopping issue. Kerry's explanations of his policy standpoints and voting records ultimately proved ineffective in countering Bush's charges of inconsistency. It was Kerry's goal to present himself as a viable alternative – this could not be seen. Therefore: a draw. Which in the end helps Bush, not Kerry.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

1678. Crude Nukes on the Loose?

Author:
Morton Bremer Mærli
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This thesis assesses the threat of nuclear terrorism and identifies strategies for diminishing the risk of such incidents. Never before have the material, the technology, the know-how, and, perhaps, the motivations needed to perform acts of nuclear terrorism been more exploitable.
Topic:
International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, and Terrorism

1679. The Challenge of Poor Governance and Corruption

Author:
Jens Chr.1 Andvig
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper is the author's so-called “Opponent paper” to Susan Rose-Ackerman's proposals for good governance and anti-corruption policies at the Copenhagen Consensus 2004 meeting 24–28 May. There the most promising anti-corruption policies had to compete with other best policies at other fields such as fight against AIDS, malaria, hunger prevention, and so on. He argues that while corruption and governance problems are important and may prevent any other kind of policy to succeed, no really effective anti-corruption policy has so far been proposed, and if it was, we wouldn't know that it did. Hence, it would be unreasonable to make a strong claim for anti-corruption projects against their competitors.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

1680. Majority Rules and Incentives—International voting affects domestic policies

Author:
Bård Harstad
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
A “majority rule” defines the number of club-members that must approve a policy proposed to replace the status quo. Since the majority rule thus dictates the extent to which winners must compensate losers, it also determines the incentives to invest in order to become a winner of anticipated projects. If the required majority is large, the members invest too little because of a hold-up problem, if it is small, the members invest too much in order to become a member of the majority coalition. To balance these opposing forces, the majority rule should increase in the level of minority protection (or enforcement capacity) and the project's value but decrease in the ex post heterogeneity. Strategic delegation turns out to be sincere exclusively under this majority rule. Externalities can be internalized by adjusting the rule. With heterogeneity in size or initial conditions, votes should be appropriately weighted or double majorities required. The analysis provides recommendations for Europe's future constitution.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe