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1481. Iran and the New Geopolitics of Oil - an Annotated Bibliograhy

Author:
Luke Patey
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Since its revolutionary birth in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has had a turbulent existence in international relations. From the US hostage crisis to the Iran-Iraq War to the current provocative development of its nuclear program, the short history of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been characterized by its volatile foreign politics. In fact, this is a feature very much resemblant of the country's tumultuous past, born from both its immense energy resources and its geo-strategic location. Regardless if Iran was under the rule of a Shah or the ultimate power of an Ayatollah, since the discovery of oil in the early 1900s, Iran's generous natural endowments have created an intimate link between itself and geopolitical competition.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Iran

1482. The Role of Militias and Other Paramilitaries in African (un)Civil Wars

Author:
Bjørn Moller
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Recent violent conflicts in Africa have seen extensive use of very irregular armed forces by governments. Examples include the use of Kamajors in Sierra Leone, Janjaweed and other militias in Sudan and Interahamwe militias in the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. The paper, originally written for a seminar on Threatened Trust. The transformation of the state and fading civil security at the Centre for African Studies, Institute for Social Anthropology, University of Basel, Basel, 9-10 January 2006, analyses the historical background of such phenomena, the strategic benefits and drawbacks of the resort to such forces, the consequences for the conduct of armed conflicts and the implications thereof for the civilian populations. Finally, it points to a number of complications caused by the presence of such forces for peace settlements and post-conflict peacebuilding, including DDR (disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration) of former combatants and security sector reform.
Topic:
Civil War and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

1483. Political Islam in Kenya

Author:
Bjørn Moller
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
In the paper, commissioned by Hussein Solomon and Akeem Fadare for their forthcoming anthology on Political Islam and the State in Africa, the focus placed on the political role of Islam in Kenyan politics. Prevalent fears (e.g. in the United States) of the country becoming a hotbed of Islamist radicalism and terrorism are critically examined against the background of the various categories of Kenyan Muslims, their general position in Kenyan society, their grievances, organisation and occasional role in various conflicts. This is all set against a background of Kenyan history, where the role of other religions (Christianity and traditional religion) is also highlighted. The paper concludes with some tentative recommendations for how the (mainly latent) conflicts might be defused.
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and United States

1484. Interim Return and Palestine: On Politics, Terminology and Structural Invisibility

Author:
Riina Isotalo
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Taking its cue from the literature on return migration and repatriation processes as well as the Palestinian refugee problem, this paper looks first at the issue of return to place of origin or not. Return migration to the West Bank and Gaza Strip is then considered in the light of this schema, and stipulations of the politicisation of a transnational paradigm and the structural invisibility of return migration are highlighted. The present paper argues that in the Palestinian context, return is a political issue for all parties concerned and that Palestinian return migration has been structurally invisible. The paper concludes that politicisation of a transnational paradigm should be acknowledged in studying Palestinians' transnational mobility and relations because otherwise the fact that some transnational practises might aim at permanent return can pass unnoticed.
Topic:
Development, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gaza

1485. Multiculturalism in Denmark and Sweden

Author:
Ulf Hedetoft
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Danish controversies over multiculturalism and integration can be enlightened by a fresh look at the ostensibly polarised differences on these questions between Denmark and its closest neighbour Sweden. Danish integration policies appear to be assimilationist in effect, if not in intent, while Sweden has openly pursued an official multiculturalism towards its ethnic minorities for over thirty years. Differences rooted in history and political tradition are real, but there appears to be some evidence of convergence today. Multiculturalism in Sweden looks increasingly unviable as a compromise, and vulnerable to the current political atmosphere, while in Denmark local policy implementation and pragmatic international adaptation to 'diversity management' belie the hostile tone of national politics. Both countries are wrestling with the adaptation of long standing traditions and institutional forms – particularly those of the welfare state – in a difficult international environment. The convulsions over multiculturalism are typical of the adaptive politics and symbolic difficulties of small states in the face of wider global transformations.
Topic:
International Relations, Demographics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Denmark, and Sweden

1486. After Enlargement: Europe's New Migration System

Author:
Adrian Favell
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Policy makers underestimate the importance of underlying demographics and labour market dynamics on future East-West migration in Europe. Flows have generally been demand driven, and have therefore been drawn by European nations with the most open and informal labour markets – such as Britain, Ireland, Italy and Spain –rather than more highly regulated welfare states such as Denmark. They are also more likely to be circular and temporary than one way immigration. I discuss the desirability of the apparently inevitable trend in Europe towards a more US style international labour market that strongly parallels the migration system between the US and Mexico. The underlying trend in Europe is towards the emergence of a more regionalised system, in which West European societies come to rely on East European movers to fill secondary labour market needs in the service economy, rather than more racially or ethnically distinct non-European immigrants.
Topic:
Development, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

1487. The Danish ugly duckling and the Mohammed cartoons

Author:
Ulla Holm
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Abroad, Denmark is for the time being considered an ugly duckling in international politics because of the publication of the cartoons on Mohammed. This perception of Denmark has shocked the political establishment and the population, because Denmark has had until now a very good reputation in international politics. This brief argues that the construction of Danish national identity as a homogeneous, harmonious ethnic entity makes it difficult for Danish governments to conduct foreign policy that takes into consideration other cultures. The Danish vision of being morally superior to other countries because of its welfare state and egalitarian politics enhances this attitude to other countries. The question is therefore how Denmark may become a swan again.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe

1488. How Not to Make Peace: "Conflict Syndrome" and the Demise of the Oslo Accords

Author:
Robert L. Rothstein
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The failure of the Oslo Accords has been attributed to a variety of factors, including deficiencies in the accords themselves, failures of implementation, and the play of domestic politics. These are all critical factors that describe what happened, but they do not explain why each side behaved as it did—that is, why each side made choices that would only increase the likelihood of the accords' failure. To understand why each side behaved as it did, we must first understand the “conflict syndrome” that affected the negotiating and decision-making process—a syndrome that is, to varying degrees, present in many protracted conflicts. While the conflict syndrome is never the sole cause of failure in any given peace process and does not affect every conflict in the same way, the significant role it often plays in perpetuating conflict is frequently ignored or undervalued.
Topic:
International Relations, Peace Studies, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Oslo

1489. Remembering George Kennan: Lessons for Today?

Author:
Melvyn Leffler
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Kennan's thinking and policy prescriptions evolved quickly from the time he wrote the “Long Telegram” in February 1946 until the time he delivered the Walgreen Lectures at the University of Chicago in 1950. His initial emphasis was on the assessment of the Soviet threat. With new documents from the Soviet archives, we can see that the “Long Telegram” and the “Mr. X” article contained both brilliant insights and glaring omissions. After he was appointed by Secretary of State George C. Marshall to head the newly formed Policy Planning Staff, Kennan's thinking evolved from a focus on threat assessment to an emphasis on interests. Believing that the Soviet threat was political and ideological, and not military, Kennan stressed the importance of reconstructing Western Europe and rebuilding western Germany and Japan. The key task was to prevent the Kremlin from gaining a preponderance of power in Eurasia. Kennan always believed that containment was a prelude to rollback and that the Soviet Union could be maneuvered back to its prewar borders. Eventually, the behavior of the Kremlin would mellow and its attitudes toward international relations would change. The United States needed to negotiate from strength, but the object of strength was, in fact, to negotiate—and compromise. It was important for the United States to avoid overweening commitments. American insecurity stemmed from a mistaken emphasis on legalism and moralism. The United States could not transform the world and should not seek to do so. Goals needed to be modest, linked to interests, and pursued systematically. Kennan would have nothing but disdain for a policy based on notions of a “democratic peace.” But the empirical evidence of social scientists cannot be ignored. Should the pursuit of democracy no longer be seen as a value, but conceived of as an interest?
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Japan, America, Europe, Eurasia, Asia, Soviet Union, Germany, and Chicago

1490. From Dayton to Brussels: Constitutional Preparations for Bosnia's EU Accession

Author:
Jason Crosby and Don Hays
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The citizens of Bosnia are united in wanting EU accession and its benefits. However, the constitution as it stands will greatly inhibit Bosnia's ability to move toward accession. Under the current constitution, ethnically based political parties still can thwart the state and prevent Bosnia from entering the EU. The constitution vests power in two entities, the Federation and the Republika Srpska, granting most governmental functions to them and only the most limited powers to the central government. Despite numerous state-building reforms, it is questionable whether the state can implement the broad range of measures the EU requires for accession. With the high representative's departure scheduled for June 2007, the state's capacity to implement the accession requirements becomes critical. A recent report by the Venice Commission outlines the reforms necessary to prepare the state for the accession process. Only Bosnia's politicians can undertake the fundamental changes required for accession. In response to this challenge the leaders of the major political parties undertook a consensus-driven process facilitated by representatives of the Institute, the Public International Law and Policy Group, and the Dayton Project. The goal was to produce a package of constitutional amendments by October 2005 to strengthen the state. Over twelve months, representatives developed amendments clarifying group rights, individual and minority rights, and mechanisms for protecting the “vital national interests” of Bosnia's constituent peoples. They also included reforms to strengthen the government and the powers of the prime minister, reduce the president's duties, and streamline parliamentary procedures. The parties presented their agreement to parliament, and on April 26, 2006, the package failed by two votes to achieve the necessary two-thirds majority. To answer the question of where Bosnia-Herzogovina (BiH) goes from here, the parties decided to wait until after elections in October 2006 to resubmit the package to parliament, in hopes that its political alignment will change enough to ensure passage.
Topic:
Development and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Eastern Europe