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1281. Nepal's Constitutional Process

Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With the formation of an interim legislature incorporating mainstream parties and Maoists, Nepal's peace process hinges on writing a constitution that permanently ends the conflict, addresses the widespread grievances that fuelled it and guards against the eruption of new violence. Most political actors have accepted the Maoist demand for a constituent assembly (CA) tasked with framing a new dispensation, although royalists are worried over the future of the monarchy, which has in effect been suspended. The major challenge is to maintain leadership-level consensus while building a broad-based and inclusive process that limits room for spoilers and ensures long-term popular legitimacy. Recent unrest in the Tarai plains illustrates the dangers of ignoring popular discontent. Key political actors need to prepare more seriously for the CA. Led by the newly established United Nations mission in Nepal (UNMIN), the international community should pressure all sides to abide by their stated commitments and global norms and provide technical assistance to the electoral process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Asia, Nepal, and United Nations

1282. Venezuela: Hugo Chá¡vez's Revolution

Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After eight years in power, President Hugo Chávez won an overwhelming re-election in December 2006. Flush with oil revenues, bolstered by high approval ratings and at the start of a six-year term, he expresses confidence about advancing what he calls his Bolivarian Revolution, named after Simón Bolívar, the country's independence hero, and installing his still only vaguely defined “Socialism of the 21st Century”. There are concerns in Venezuela and much of the hemisphere, however, that to do so the ex-colonel and one-time coup leader may be willing to sacrifice democratic principles. He is not yet a dictator and for the most part has not tried to act in a dictatorial manner, but the trend toward autocracy is strong. If he continues to build personal power at the expense of other institutions and militarise much of the government and political life, there will be serious risks for internal conflict, especially if the oil boom that cushions the economy falters.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America and Tanzania

1283. Bolivia's Reforms: The Danger of New Conflicts

Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bolivia's first indigenous president, Evo Morales, will complete a year in office on 22 January amid rising civil unrest. His government and its opponents are locked in confrontation over institutional reforms that would rewrite the constitution, end an inequitable land tenure system and return economic power to the state. Extremists are coming to the fore in both camps in a crisis that differs from previous ones because the stakes involve a proposal for a very different national model that the traditional elites see as a fundamental threat to their survival. Unless menacing rhetoric ends and dialogue, mediation and compromise begin immediately, widespread violence may result in 2007.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

1284. China and Taiwan in the South Pacific: diplomatic chess versus Pacific political rugby

Author:
Graeme Dobell
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The competition between China and Taiwan for diplomatic recognition is destabilising island states in the South Pacific, making Pacific politics more corrupt and violent. Solomon Islands offers the clearest evidence of what happens to an island state that becomes a battleground in this contest. Australia is in the front line in the South Pacific. Australia is budgeting billions of dollars for aid and governance in the South Pacific over the decade. Australia's aims in the region will bring it into sharper conflict with the interests being pursued by China and Taiwan.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

1285. American Trade Politics in 2007: Building Bipartisan Compromise

Author:
I.M. Destler
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
As Democrats took over the United States Congress in January 2007, many trade advocates trembled. Over the past decade, votes on trade liberalization had broken increasingly along partisan lines. Trade promotion authority (TPA)—indispensable for negotiating new trade agreements—passed by just one House vote in December 2001, with just 21 out of 210 Democrats in favor. In July 2006 the Central American Free Trade Agreement—Dominican Republic (CAFTA-DR) won by just two votes, with a minuscule 15 of 202 Democrats voting “aye.” By one accounting, voters in November 2006 had replaced 16 trade-friendly House Republicans (and five similar Senate Republicans) with tradeskeptical Democrats. No seats in either house moved in the free trade direction (Evenett and Meier 2006).
Topic:
Development, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
America

1286. Exit Polls: Refugee Assessments of North Korea's Transition

Author:
Stephan Haggard, Marcus Noland, and Yoonok Chang
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Results from a survey of more than 1,300 North Korean refugees in China provide insight into changing economic conditions in North Korea. There is modest evidence of slightly more positive assessments among those who exited the country following the initiation of reforms in 2002. Education breeds skepticism; higher levels of education were associated with more negative perceptions of economic conditions and reform efforts. Other demographic markers such as gender or provincial origin are not robustly correlated with attitudes. Instead, personal experiences appear to be central: A significant number of the respondents were unaware of the humanitarian aid program and the ones who knew of it almost universally did not believe that they were beneficiaries. This group's evaluation of the regime, its intentions, and accomplishments is overwhelmingly negative—even more so than those of respondents who report having had experienced incarceration in political detention facilities—and attests to the powerful role that the famine experience continues to play in the political economy of the country.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
China, North Korea, and Korea

1287. Do Markets Care Who Chairs the Central Bank?

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper assesses the effects of central bank governor appointments on financial market expectations of monetary policy. To measure these effects, we assemble a new dataset of appointment announcements from 15 countries, and conduct an event study analysis on exchange rates, bond yields, and stock prices. The analysis reveals a significant reaction of exchange rates and bond yields to unexpected appointments. The reactions are not unidirectional, and thus do not suggest new governors suffer from a generic credibility problem. Federal Reserve chairman appointments stand out in terms of their unusually pronounced effects on financial markets.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Politics

1288. The End of Democratic Solidarity in the Americas?

Author:
Roger Noriega
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Not long ago, the governments of the Americas recognized the value of working together to consolidate the historic, promising trend toward democracy. Now, with democracy being dismantled in several nations and being assailed by authoritarian Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez Frías, Latin American countries seem to have abandoned the fraternal ideal of inter-American solidarity. The United States and the Organization of American States (OAS) can both do more to salvage the regional commitment to democracy, but unless Latin American and Caribbean governments are willing to stand together to defend their principles, the end of democratic solidarity is in sight.
Topic:
Democratization, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, America, Latin America, Caribbean, and Venezuela

1289. Let Cuba Be Cuban Again

Author:
Robert F. Noriega
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
As Fidel Castro shuffles off the world stage, many non-Cubans are pondering the future of a nation that has spent nearly fifty years trapped under the rubble of the dictator's demented experiment. Too many outsiders, however, are disoriented by the myths that the regime has spun over the past five decades to make the island seem complicated, bedeviled, dangerous, and unapproachable. Castro realized that if the world came to comprehend Cuban reality, then even the intelligentsia might notice something wrong with the way he ran the place.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Cuba and Central America

1290. The Wrong Kind of Bipartisanship?

Author:
Frederick M. Hess
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB) is due for reauthorization in 2007. In the nick of time, a bipartisan conventional wisdom has emerged that conveniently excuses the shortcomings of this awkwardly assembled law.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Education, and Politics