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1181. Reading Khamenei: The World View of Iran's Most Powerful Leader

Author:
Karim Sadjadpour
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
There is perhaps no leader in the world more important to current world affairs but less known and understood than Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. Neither a dictator nor a democrat—but with traits of both—Khamenei is the single most powerful individual in a highly factionalized, autocratic regime. Though he does not make national decisions on his own, neither can any major decisions be taken without his consent. He has ruled the country by consensus rather than decree, with his own survival and that of the theocratic system as his top priorities.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East

1182. Transitions from Charismatic Rule: Theories of Leadership Change and Cuba's Post-Fidel Succession

Author:
Bert Hoffmann
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
For theories of political succession and charismatic authority, the almost half‐century long rule of Fidel Castro presents an extraordinary test case since Fidel in July 2006 handed over power 'temporarily' to his deputy and brother Raúl. On the background of Max Weber's work on charismatic rule, the paper analyzes the way in which the Cuban leadership has responded to the succession question and identifies four aspects in which it differs from the succession problems typically attributed to charismatic rule: Cuba's longstanding exceptionalism regarding the 'second man' behind the leader; the succession during the life‐time of the leader with a sui generis modus of 'cohabitation' between the outgoing and the incoming leader; the routinization of charisma which domestically allows a bureaucratic succession model with the Communist Party, rather than any individual, being postulated as Fidel Castro's heir; and as a correlate to the latter, the ritual transmission of Fidel's charisma to a heir beyond the nation‐state, Venezuela's Hugo Chávez, as the new charismatic leader to continue Fidel Castro's universal revolutionary mission.
Topic:
Communism, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

1183. Why Reform Fails: The 'Politics of Policies' in Costa Rican Telecommunications Liberalization

Author:
Bert Hoffmann
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
As the 'Washington Consensus' reforms are losing momentum in Latin America, the Inter- American Development Bank (IDB) is calling for shifting the focus from the content of policy choices to the political process of their implementation. As this paper studies the paradigmatic case of telecommunications reform in Costa Rica it underscores the importance of these 'politics of policies'. The analysis finds, however, that the failure of repeated liberalization initiatives was not only due to policy-makers' errors in steering the project through 'the messy world of politics' (IDB); instead, as liberalization remained unpopular, policy content indeed mattered, and only the interaction of both explains the outcome. Particular attention is drawn to the political feed-back effects, as the failed reform, precisely because it had been backed by bi-partisan support, became a catalyst for the disintegration of the country's long-standing two-party system.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
America, Washington, Latin America, and Central America

1184. Political Party and Party System Institutionalisation in Southeast Asia: A Comparison of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand

Author:
Andreas Ufen
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
It is generally acknowledged that a higher degree of party and party systems institutionalisation is positively correlated with the consolidation of democracy. It is, thus, useful to compare different levels and types of institutionalisation. In this article the distinction made by Levitsky ("value infusion' vs.'behavioural infusion') with reference to party institutionalisation will be employed. Moreover, institutionalised party systems are characterized, according to Mainwaring and Torcal, by 'stability of interpary competition'. The empirical research of this paper finds that the early organisational consolidaton of social cleavages, such as in Indonesia, enhances institutionalisation. Furthermore, the relation between central and local elites appears to be essential strong bosses or cliques undermine institutionalisation in the Philippines and in Thailand respectively. Most Indonesian parties are better institutionalised than those in the Philippines and Thailand with reference to 'value infusion'. In addition, the party system in Indonesia is better institutionalised in terms of 'stability of interpary competition'.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

1185. Crafting Political Institutions in Africa. Electoral Systems and Systems of Government in Rwanda and Zambia Compared

Author:
Alexander Stroh
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Scholars of institutional design attribute large importance to the choice of new institutions. The comparative analysis of how Rwanda and Zambia crafted their new electoral systems and the systems of government regards procedural, structural and rational choice variables which may influence the option for particular solutions. External influences and the type of transition are determinants that can decide which actors make their interests prevail. The degree of innovation or conservatism of new institutions is mainly a result of the speed of the process and the kind of actors involved. However, rational reflections on how to produce legitimacy and minimize personal risks which take into consideration the state of conflict in the country decide on the speed and on innovative outcomes. The structured analysis of only two cases uncovers already that it is rather difficult to realise the transfer of design recommendations into reality.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Rwanda, and Holland

1186. Gero Erdmann and Matthias Basedau: Problems of Categorising and Explaining Party Systems in Africa

Author:
Gero Erdmann and Mattias Basedau
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Starting from controversial findings about the relationship between party systems and the prospects of democratic consolidation, this article argues that problems can only be properly addressed on the basis of a differentiated typology of party systems. Contradictory research results do not pose an 'African puzzle' but can be explained by different and inadequate approaches. We argue that a modified version of Sartori's typology of party systems provides an appropriate method for classifying African party systems. Based on Sartori's framework, a preponderance of predominant and dominant party systems is identified. This can partly be explained by the prevailing authoritarian nature of many multiparty regimes in Africa as well as by the ethnic plurality of African societies. High ethnic fragmentation is not transformed into highly fragmented party systems. This phenomenon can be attributed to the most frequent 'ethnic congress party' which is based on an ethnic elite coalition.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa

1187. Sufism in Central Asia: A Force for Moderation or a Cause of Politicization?

Author:
Martha Brill Olcott
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Sufism is a mystical form of Islam that has flourished in the Muslim world for centuries. Sufism has placed a distinctive stamp on the way the religion has been practiced in many Arab countries, in parts of Africa, in Turkey, and especially in Central Asia.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Africa, Central Asia, Turkey, Kuwait, and Arabia

1188. Fighting on Two Fronts: Secular Parties in the Arab World

Author:
Amr Hamzawy and Marina S. Ottaway
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Secular parties in the Arab world—a broad range of political organizations that vary in their political orientation from liberal positions to vaguely socialist programs—are facing a crisis. Caught between regimes that allow little legal space for free political activity on one side and popular Islamist movements that are clearly in the ascendancy throughout the Arab world on the other, they are struggling for influence and relevance, and in some cases even for survival.
Topic:
Politics, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Arabia

1189. Evaluating Political Reform in Yemen

Author:
Sarah Phillips
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since the Republic of Yemen was created in 1990 through the unification of the northern and southern states, the Yemeni regime has very consciously framed its policies in the language of democracy, while simultaneously muzzling initiatives that might help facilitate democratic consolidation. There has been a marked increase in the level of popular political activity, but the country's power structures have proven resilient to political reform.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

1190. Pushing Toward Party Politics: Kuwait's Islamic Constitutional Movement

Author:
Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Kuwait's Islamic Constitutional Movement (ICM), founded in 1991, is a relatively new political actor in Kuwait. Yet by the standards of regional Islamist movements, it is one of the most experienced in parliamentary and electoral politics. The ICM can claim some real electoral and programmatic successes, but any move beyond marginal or incremental achievements rests largely on its ability to build on the success of an ad hoc and diverse coalition of Islamist, liberal, and populist political forces. In short, if the ICM navigates difficult waters, it may be able to achieve many of its goals while demonstrating the broader potential of an Islamist electoral movement as part of a coalition pressing for liberalizing political reform. Kuwaiti political history suggests strong reasons for skepticism-the opposition has never been able to maintain a united front for long, and the Kuwaiti government has tools at its disposal to disperse, placate, and even exclude dissenters. But the opportunities beckoning the movement and other opposition political forces are stronger than they have ever been.
Topic:
Development, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kuwait