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71. Between Giants: The Sino-Indian Cold War in the Indian Ocean

Author:
David Brewster
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Strategic competition between India and China in the Indian Ocean is growing and has the potential to profoundly impact the stability and security of the region. The Indian Ocean is becoming the scene of a sustained contest that in some ways resembles strategic competition during the Cold War. This will include pressure on Indian Ocean states to align themselves with one side or another within an increasingly unstable and complex strategic environment.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Political stability, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, Asia, and Indian Ocean

72. China in Xi’s “New Era”: The Return to Personalistic Rule

Author:
Susan L. Shirk
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
After Mao Zedong died, Deng Xiaoping and his colleagues sought to prevent “the overconcentration of power” by introducing fixed terms of office, term limits, and a mandatory retirement age; delegating authority from the Communist Party to government agencies; and holding regular meetings of Party institutions. All these moves were designed to decentralize authority, regularize political life and check dictatorial power. The centerpiece of the institutionalization project was the practice of regular peaceful leadership succession followed by Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. Regular premortem leadership succession was a rare achievement in a communist system and the most important source of China’s “authoritarian resilience.” Yet today, Xi Jinping is taking China back to a personalistic dictatorship after decades of institutionalized collective leadership. He has clearly signaled his intention to remain in office after his normal two terms end in 2022. This article analyzes the reasons why the institutional rules and precedents laid down since Deng Xiaoping’s time failed to prevent the emergence of another strongman leader like Mao Zedong.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Political stability, and Institutionalism
Political Geography:
China and Asia

73. 2018 Summit on the Future of Europe Back to Square One

Author:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The Summit on the Future of Europe is an initiative of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies (CES) at Harvard University. Since 2014, this annual conference has convened scholars and public leaders to debate critical challenges facing Europe. The 2018 Summit convened at Harvard on November 7, 2018 and was a partnership of CES, the Harvard Kennedy School’s Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship, the diaNEOsis Research and Policy Institute, the European Stability Initiative (ESI), Central European University (CEU), and Real Colegio Complutense (RCC) at.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Political stability, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

74. From Urban Fragility to Urban Stability

Author:
Stephen Commins
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The growing share of Africa’s urban residents living in slums is creating a further source of fragility. In response, some cities are implementing integrated urban development strategies that link local government, police, the private sector, and youth to strengthen social cohesion and enhance stability.
Topic:
International Affairs, Urbanization, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Africa

75. In the eye of the storm? (In)stability in Western Iraqi Kurdistan

Author:
Erwin van Veen and Hamzeh al-Shadeedi
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Iraqi Kurdistan has done well for itself in recent decades by carving out a largely autonomous region free of most governance and security interference from Baghdad. The alliance of convenience between the two pre-eminent Kurdish parties (PUK and KDP) effectively seized a number of opportunities to consolidate and expand Iraqi Kurdistan, such as the international no-fly zone (1991), the US intervention (2003), the crafting of a new constitution for Iraq (2005) and, arguably, even the rise of the Islamic State (IS) (2014). Yet, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) also faces a triple crisis. Politically, this includes the exclusive and increasingly repressive rule of the KDP and PUK in a context of mediocre governance, as well as strained relations between Erbil and Baghdad over the disputed territories. Economically, it includes a general downturn combined with serious financial disputes with Baghdad. Socially, it includes deteriorating popular satisfaction with the quality of rule and life in Kurdistan. In this report Erwin van Veen and al-Hamzeh al-Shadeedi analyse four factors that could drive future (in)stability in western Iraqi Kurdistan: 1) geopolitical tensions; 2) further clashes over the disputed territories; 3) growing dissatisfaction with the KDP and 4) protracted displacement. On balance, it does not consider the risk of immediate crisis or violence as being very high, but the report does note that many elements are in place that could easily trigger violent incidents with the potential of escalation. For each factor, the report proposes restraining factors, developments to monitor and trigger events. While international influence on the domestic politics of Iraqi Kurdistan is limited, coupling an offer of international (UN) mediation to facilitate resolution of the disputed territories with the development, or strengthening, of a dedicated fund that can rapidly initiate the reconstruction of the Greater Mosul area (including some of the disputed territories) would be a valuable intervention to further the peaceful development of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Topic:
Governance, Political stability, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

76. Kazakhstan: Presidential Succession and Political Instability in a Neopatrimonial State / Kazajstán: sucesión presidencial e inestabilidad política en un Estado neopatrimonial

Author:
Rubén Ruiz Ramas
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
The refusal of Nursultan Nazarbayev, both to designate his future successor and to strengthen the institutions that can take responsibility for this task, fuel the potential for conflict attached to the future context of succession. The horizon of the transfer of power concerns Nazarbayev, who in July 2018 reaches 78 years old. The sources of concern are related not only to Nazarbayev’s family safety but also to the risk of confrontation among the elite networks and their social, ethnic and regional power basis. A kind of political instability vulnerable to escalation to major threatens to the national and even regional security. On the one hand, this article aims to analyse the structural vulnerability of Kazakhstan to a context of presidential succession product of its nature as an authoritarian regime and a neopatrimonial state. On the other hand, the paper also tackles the preparation of that context by the authorities and the options available to deal with the transfer of power. To this end, the paper begins with an analysis of the neopatrimonial state heterogeneity in Central Asia, followed by a section focused on the specific nature of the authoritarianism and neopatrimonialism in Kazakhstan. Finally, it elaborates the Kazakh context of succession, and the several options of transfer of power and the likely actors involved in them are examined.
Topic:
Politics, Authoritarianism, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kazakhstan

77. Communist Parties In Russia, Ukraine and Moldova: Struggling with popular demands

Author:
Jussi Lassila and Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The appeal of left-leaning ideas is on the rise in Russia, Ukraine and Moldova. Nonetheless, the main left-wing parties, particularly the communists, remain stuck in the past and at odds with the interests of the electorate. The communists have gradually transformed from opposition forces and political competitors into conformists of the ruling elites. This new function dictates their key interest in maintaining the stability of the system, which also leads to growing dissent among the parties’ members. Embeddedness in the existing political system is preventing the Left from self-reforming and impeding their transformation into modern national social-democratic projects. Yet Moldova has shown that in the new political context old ‘Leninists’ can reinvent themselves and become the most popular political project in the country.
Topic:
Communism, Political stability, Political Parties, and Participation
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

78. Post-ISIS Challenges for Stabilization: Iraq, Syria and the U.S. Approach

Author:
Jonas Parello-Plesner
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
The fight in Iraq and Syria against the brutal terrorist organization Islamic State (ISIS) has been led by an unprecedented international coalition, with the U.S. as the galvanizing diplomatic and military component. ISIS was defeated militarily in Iraq at the end of last year, but even today small pockets remain as a fighting force in Syria. As the war is won, peace must be secured. Key to that effort is post-conflict stabilization through restoration of essential services and a gradual return of governance. As the U.S. National Security Strategy puts it, “instability and weak governance threaten U.S. interests.” In Iraq and Syria, reasserting stability is vital so that terrorist organizations do not find fertile ground again. This report draws some lessons from Iraq and Syria on stabilization efforts and the path forward. The backdrop is the evolving U.S. approach to stabilization under the Trump administration. On June 19, 2018, the administration published the final version of the Stabilization Assistance Review report, which provides an inter-agency definition of stabilization, including a more hard-nosed approach to sharing the burden with partners in accordance with President Trump’s priorities. The review also draws demarcation lines between humanitarian assistance, stabilization, and reconstruction. Stabilization is short-term and transitional, and thus also limits the time frame for U.S. engagement. However, the U.S. no longer provides public funding for reconstruction to avoid nation-building, which the administration has declared to be off limits.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Reconstruction, Islamic State, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

79. Universities are rising from ruins of war

Author:
Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Since the 1960s, successive governments in Baghdad considered the Kurdish-majority areas of Iraq a war zone, and deprived them of investment. So when, in 1992, Kurds elected their first parliament and government, the politicians inherited a half-ruined country, with more than 4,000 destroyed villages and just one small university to serve a traumatised population of more than 4 million. Educationally, the biggest priority for the Kurdistan regional government (KRG) was to rapidly expand school capacity. New universities and technical institutes with diverse programmes were also established de novo. Currently, 14 public and 15 private universities are fully operational, accommodating 165,414 students in 2016, compared with 10,166 in 1992. Investing in quality was the next big challenge. In 2010, the Kurdish government that I was part of introduced a comprehensive system of quality assurance and accreditation, including a performance assessment of all staff and institutions that later became the basis for the annual ranking of KRI universities. Previously, no such system had existed in Iraq, and standards were on the decline – especially after the Iraqi regime change in 2003. Continuing political, security and economic crises, as well as poorly designed policies, corruption and over-politicised administrations were partly to blame. As in other Middle Eastern countries, the Iraqi and KRI governments make all senior university appointments and manage university budgets. This inevitably permits external interference in academic affairs, at the expense of quality and efficiency. There have been serious attempts to move towards making universities totally independent from government, but it has not been easy to accomplish. However, we have succeeded in making the KRI university admissions system electronic and transparent, to ensure equal opportunity. Curricula and teaching methods have been modernised, with greater emphasis on critical thinking, scientific debate, mastering information technology and learning other languages, particularly English and Arabic. The rapid proliferation of educational institutions and the subsequent increase in student populations threatened to outpace the system’s ability to prepare an adequate number of teaching staff. This is where research-intensive universities and other centres of excellence in Europe and America helped. In 2010, it was mandated that all PhD candidates should spend up to 18 months in international centres abroad. And the KRG launched a $400 million programme to send more than 4,500 talented graduates to study for higher degrees at prestigious universities abroad. Meanwhile, existing faculty were given incentives to take sabbatical leave, spend time in prestigious universities abroad and to co-publish with colleagues there. Such arrangements can be mutually beneficial. While the local academics and institutions have great needs in terms of connectivity, sense of direction and research leadership, they can offer scientific material, data and unique insight into their local issues. Academic leaders of post-conflict countries need first-hand exposure to best practice in higher education and research. They need to understand how independent universities work in a democracy. They need help to become research-active and to produce high-impact publications. They need to think globally and act locally, solving their countries’ problems through collaborative research. Countries such as KRI are resource-rich and can sustain the funding of their side of collaborations. In addition to its full-fee paying scholarship and sabbatical programmes, the KRG also pledged in 2010 to match-fund external grants for research projects in the KRI. These have led to numerous joint projects, publications and supervision of research students. Many of the external supervisors have become external examiners and assessors of university performance in the KRI. The current security and economic crises have slowed progress, but this is a transient phase. These investments must be maintained as the situation eases. Without strong higher education, Kurdistan will never stand tall even as it moves towards full nationhood.
Topic:
Development, Education, Political stability, and Higher Education
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

80. Economic Analysis of Papua New Guinea

Author:
David Osborne, Robert Harden, and Christopher Hoy
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This paper analyses the PNG economy by considering (1) macroeconomic stability; and (2) fiscal policy and debt.
Topic:
Debt, Political stability, Economic growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
AustralAsia and Papua New Guinea