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91. The Curious Case of GDP Growth

Author:
Rajiv Kumar and Geetima Das Krishna
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), the custodian of Indian statistics, has faced a lot of questioning after the release of the new GDP series with 2011-12 as base. The RBI, Ministry of Finance, IMF, several credit rating agencies have all questioned the validity of the revisions. Some analysts like Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley have gone as far as to assert that these revisions if not corrected will make Indian statics as suspect as Chinese GDP data in the past. This will be a real pity. The extent of the revisions is shown in Table 1 below. With the new base year of 2012-13, GDP growth in FY 14 (2013-14) has been revised upwards to 6.6% at factor cost and a whopping 6.9% at market prices. This represents about 2% increase in GDP growth over the earlier estimate of 5%. Surely, such a large scale revision will or should significantly affect the understanding of the underlying economic phenomenon and lead to a marked policy shift. Contrary to what Surjit S Bhalla (SSB) would have us believe, not even the government is taking the revised estimates seriously enough as reflected in a lack of any change in policy direction.
Topic:
Political Economy, GDP, Economy, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

92. Partisan Gerrymandering and the Construction of American Democracy, Erik J. Engstrom

Author:
Seth C. McKee
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
Three quarters of American political history transpired before the 1960s, and yet virtually all of the research on congressional redistricting examines its effects after the 1962 one-person, one-vote ruling. The commonly held academic opinion that redistricting registers limited effects ignores the very different political setting of the late eighteenth and entire nineteenth centuries, when the absence of judicial oversight and congressional intervention produced an electoral milieu whose signature feature was noholds-barred partisan gerrymandering. The lack of attention to the role of redistricting, as it was practiced throughout most of American history, not only has created scholarly blind spots, but these gaps in knowledge have led political scientists to overemphasize the critical-election narrative of party system change and its attendant effects on congressional policymaking. - See more at: http://www.psqonline.org/article.cfm?IDArticle=19329#sthash.DVpyXMMw.dpuf
Topic:
Political Economy
Political Geography:
America

93. Saudi Arabia: The New Power Structure

Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
King Salman has confirmed his reputation as a religious conservative through the reappointment of traditionalist clerics However he has also made some effort to streamline the Saudi government Recent changes have given considerable power to two men from the next generation: King Salman's son and his nephew The result may be good for hard security measures, but less certain for the soft measures necessary for Saudi Arabia to weather the storm.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Islam, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

94. Thinking Ahead of the Next Big Crash

Author:
George C. Bitros
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the unprecedented 2008 financial crisis, researchers of macroeconomics, finance, and political economy are showing renewed interest in the old but very significant question: Are central banks in large reserve currency democracies—in particular, the U.S. Federal Reserve—prone to creating asset bubbles, and if so, how is it possible to prevent the misuse of the banks' discretionary powers?
Topic:
Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and England

95. WTO 'a la carte' or 'menu du jour'? Assessing the Case for More Plurilateral Agreements

Author:
Bernard M. Hoekman and Petros C. Mavroidis
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
Plurilateral agreements in the context of the World Trade Organization (WTO) allow sub-sets of countries to agree to commitments in specific policy areas that only apply to signatories and thus allow for ‘variable geometry’ in the WTO. Plurilateral agreements share a number of features with preferential trade agreements (PTAs), which are increasingly used by governments to liberalize trade in goods and services. This article discusses the current institutional framework that governs these two alternatives and distinguishes them from the general, non-discriminatory agreements that are negotiated among – and apply to – all WTO members. Current WTO rules make it much more difficult to pursue the plurilateral route than to negotiate a PTA. We review the arguments for and against making it easier for ‘issue-specific’ clubs to form in the WTO and discuss how concerns raised by some WTO members regarding the potential negative impact of plurilateral agreements on the multilateral trading system might be addressed. We take the view that action to facilitate the negotiation of plurilateral agreements in the WTO should be considered and that the potential downsides for the multilateral trading system can be managed.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, World Trade Organization, and Law
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

96. Une puissance parmi d'autres : évolution des enjeux et défis géostratégiques de la France en Océanie (One Among Many: Changing Geostrategic Interests and Challenges for France in the South Pacific)

Author:
Denise Fisher
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
France, which is both an external and resident South Pacific power by virtue of its possessions there, pursues, or simply inherits, multiple strategic benefits. But the strategic context has changed in recent years. China's increased presence; consequent changes in the engagement of the US, Japan and Taiwan; and the involvement of other players in the global search for resources, means that France is one of many more with influence and interests in a region considered by some as a backwater. These shifts in a way heighten the value of France's strategic returns, while impacting on France's capacity to exert influence and pursue its own objectives in the region. At the same time, France is dealing with demands for greater autonomy and even independence from its two most valuable overseas possessions on which its influence is based, New Caledonia and French Polynesia. How it responds to these demands will directly shape the nature of its future regional presence, which is a strategic asset.
Topic:
Political Economy, Natural Resources, Colonialism, Political Science, and Decolonization
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Taiwan, France, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and United States of America

97. L’insécurité énergétique en Amérique du Sud : développement des réseaux et intégration sectorielle entre le Pérou et le Chili (Energy Insecurity in South America : Network Development and Sectoral Integration in Chile and Peru)

Author:
Alvaro Artigas
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
The South American continent has experienced a robust economic growth presently overshadowed by an uneven energy integration that fails to meet both an ever-growing industrial and metropolitan demand. Several integration mechanisms co-exist, but a poor integration layout threatens the energy security of the region and individual countries. Several factors contribute to this. Firstly, the very template of regional integration has failed to deliver a valid set of supranational coordination mechanisms aimed at coordinating and sorting out disputes among individual countries. Secondly, national States tie security to self-sufficiency in the face of mutual distrust, thus rendering potential advantages of market and networks integration a less desirable choice. The example of Chile and Peru integration drive reveals many of these dynamics while showing at the same time the windfalls of a transversal sectoral coordination over diplomatic exchange by individual states. What is the potential for an alternative template where the State will play a less intrusive role while consigning territorial disagreements backstage?
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Natural Resources, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Chile, and Peru

98. The Political Economy of International Migration: Three Important Perspectives

Author:
Mojúbàolú Olufúnké Okome
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
The publication of this issue is foreshadowed by the tragic drowning of hundreds of migrants, including Africans, in the Mediterranean Sea (BBC News 2015, Rosen 2015, Walsh, Almasy and Botelho 2015, Traynor 2015, Fottrell 2015). The sheer size of these drownings have once again caused popular horror and contemplation on causes and consequences of migration. The projection by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) that these deaths could increase to over 30,000 just in 2015 is anxiety provoking and shocking (AlJazeera News 2015, Brian and Laczko 2014). The drownings have also caused increased focus on the policies of popular destination countries and regions and critiques of the harshness of these regimes as well as calls for more humane migration policies, research and documentation of the root causes of migration, and heartrending accounts of migrants’ motives and harrowing experiences (Clegg 2015, Barker 2014, Kassam 2014). As well, they have caused intensified media attention to the circumstances that propel migration from various African countries and the choice of destinations in Europe. These conditions and circumstances are hardly new. Neither are the tales of woe that attend the serious decision to abandon familiar misery of migrants’ homelands in hopes of somehow experiencing the miracle of success in unknown climes (Sy 2006, Ndege 2006, Morris 2005, Bailey 2005, Travis August, Kingsley 2015).
Topic:
Migration, Political Economy, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

99. Cultural Differences and the Economic Performance of Minorities and Immigrants

Author:
Gil S. Epstein and Erez Siniver
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
The economic outcomes of a minority group may be adversely affected by the cultural differences between it and the majority group. On the other hand, cultural differences may lead a minority group to concentrate in enclaves, which can offset to some extent the negative effect of cultural discrimination. We examine how the relative size of a minority group and cultural differences between groups can affect economic outcomes. We begin by specifying a simple theoretical framework and then characterize an economy with four ethnic groups that differ culturally and in size. We then test the effect of these differences on economic outcomes. The results indicate that the difference in earnings between native Jews and Ethiopian immigrants and between native Jews and Israeli Arabs is due to taste-based discrimination.
Topic:
Migration, Political Economy, Immigration, Culture, and Immigrants
Political Geography:
Africa, Israel, and Ethiopia

100. Egypt's Post-Mubarak Predicament

Author:
Ashraf El-Sherif
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Three years after the uprising that ousted Hosni Mubarak from power, Egypt continues to grapple with an authoritarian state. Throughout the rise and fall of the Muslim Brotherhood, authoritarian forces remained the key political players. Democratic alternatives have not capitalized on cracks in the system. Prospects for the Brotherhood's political reintegration and a democratization of political Islam are bleak. As long as credible alternatives fail to gain traction, the old state will persist and Egypt's central challenges will remain unresolved.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Political Economy, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt