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511. Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurrent Civil War

Author:
Barbara F. Walter
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
This article seeks to explain why some countries experience recurring civil war while others do not. It argues that renewed war has less to do with the attributes of a previous war, as many people have argued, and more to do with the incentives individual citizens have to join rebel groups at any given point in time. Civil wars will have little chance to get off the ground unless individual farmers, shopkeepers, and workers choose to enlist in the rebel armies that are necessary to pursue a war, and enlistment is likely to be attractive when two conditions hold: the status quo for the average citizen is perceived to be worse than the possibility of death in combat, and there is no non-violent outlet for political change. An analysis of all civil wars ending between 1945 and 1996 suggests that improvements in basic living conditions and in the average person's access to political participation have a significant negative effect on the likelihood of renewed war. Countries that are able to increase the economic well-being of their citizenry, and create a more open political system are less likely to experience multiple civil wars regardless of what happened in a previous conflict.
Topic:
Security, Peace Studies, and Politics

512. The Infrastructure of Peace in Africa: Assessing the Peacebuilding Capacity of African Institutions

Author:
Monica Juma and Aida Mengistu
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
In October 2000, the Ford Foundation requested the International Peace Academy's (IPA) Africa Program to generate a database of institutions managing conflicts and crises in Africa. After consultations, the scope of this project was expanded to comprise an assessment of capacity, and determination of the potential of institutions to respond to crises and conflicts in Africa. This report is the outcome of that exercise and hopes to guide and facilitate the design of the Ford Foundation's funding strategy for peacebuilding in sub-Saharan Africa. However, it is hoped that this report will also serve to stimulate further discussion by the Ford Foundation and IPA staff, with the involvement of other relevant donors, about the challenges and opportunities for supporting peace and development in Africa. To that end, this report landscapes the condition of capacity in Africa, provides a diagnostic overview of institutional layout at the regional, national and local levels and proposes areas of intervention that can bolster and improve performance. It must be noted from the start that this report claims to be neither exhaustive nor comprehensive. Many important organizations engaged in useful peacebuilding work in Africa have not been included in this report due to logistical and time constraints. The organizations included in the report are merely illustrative of some of the peacebuilding work being conducted in Africa, and are mainly concentrated in conflict areas.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa

513. A Framework for Lasting Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration of Former Combatants in Crisis Situations

Author:
Lotta Hagman and Zoe Nielsen
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The successful disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) of ex-combatants are crucial to achieving a lasting peace. While there has been a good deal of international focus of disarmament and demobilization, more analysis and resources are needed in reintegration. DDR programs should be part of an overall integrated recovery strategy that encompasses economic development, security sector reform, the integration of refugees and internally displaced persons, and justice and reconciliation. An effective strategy must take the regional dimensions of the conflict into consideration. Political will and national buy-in are essential to the success of DDR programs. Ex-combatants must be ready to disarm and return to civilian life and the government and communities must be prepared to accept them. The role of the international community can only be to facilitate this process, for example by encouraging the inclusion of DDR programs in peace agreements, and providing money and support for planning, national awareness raising campaigns, and reinsertion packages for ex-combatants. International actors can also monitor programs to ensure that all ex-combatants are treated equally regardless of former affiliations. Strategic planning for DDR can and should start prior to the actual peace agreement in order to establish a division of labor, develop networks and expertise, as well as build confidence and ensure local ownership. A broad-based national commission that ensures the equal treatment of all groups is likely to be the optimal mechanism for planning and implementation. For successful implementation of DDR programs, it is crucial to seek a balance between managing the often very high expectations of ex-combatants and addressing resentment of “favoritism” among the rest of the population. Flexible programming and an effective public information campaign are key in achieving this goal. Issues that require additional consideration include the ambiguous status of female ex-combatants who have not necessarily carried weapons, the role of dependents, health issues such as the spread of HIV/AIDS, funding processes, and coordination priorities.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Peace Studies

514. Economic Priorities for Peace Implementation

Author:
Susan L. Woodward
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
There has been surprisingly little systematic analysis of how economic factors contribute to the success or failure of peace agreements. What is clear however, is that economic factors play a more significant role in the failure of peace agreements than they do in the success of such initiatives; Peace agreements are often very weak on economic aspects. This is problematic because the success of the first phase of peace implementation is largely dependent on three economic factors: sufficiently rapid economic revival to generate confidence in the peace process; adequate funding to implement key aspects of the peace agreement; and, for a sustainable peace, there must be sufficient funding to enable the establishment of government institutions and the transition to a peace-time economy; Five important lessons have emerged from experience in the area of peace implementation over the last decade: The need for broad-based impact assessments At present, assessments tend to measure whether an aid project was implemented as planned, not whether it contributed to a sustainable peace. As a consequence, important opportunities to make informed mid-course adjustments in long-term programs and to develop more effective programs are lost; An early emphasis on employment is critical Active employment is critical to redirecting behavior and encouraging support for the peace process. The success of crucial programs such as those for the demobilization and reintegration of former combatants and the return of refugees and internally displaced persons are also linked to the availability of employment; Invest in Building Institutional and Social Capital Conventional approaches to post-conflict economic recovery tend to emphasize macroeconomic stability at the expense of economic infrastructure. However, in post-conflict settings, the financial and legal institutions so necessary to implement economic policy and ensure good governance are either weak or nonexistent. More attention must be paid to financing the development of basic public sector capacities and social capital. Donor decisions about whom to assist and what to fund have lasting political impacts Donor monies influence government policy, whether directly through the imposition of explicit conditions or in more indirect ways. Lending decisions also influence the political landscape within the recipient county and the behavior of third-party implementers; An international presence introduces economic distortions It is seldom acknowledged that the economic impact of international peace missions runs contrary to the aims of self-government and economic and political sustainability. As a consequence, decisions about implementation and exit are extremely important; There is an urgent need for a new economic strategy that addresses the challenges of post-civil war environments.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements

515. Challenges in Peacekeeping: Past, Present and Future

Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The International Peace Academy (IPA) and the Best Practices Unit of the United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations (UNDPKO) organized a half-day seminar on October 29, 2002, with the generous support of the Government of Norway, to celebrate the 10th anniversary of UNDPKO. Entitled “Past, Present and Future Challenges in Peacekeeping,” the seminar reunited current and previous Under-Secretaries-General and several highly reputed Special Representatives of the Secretary-General (SRSGs) in a review of the last ten years in UN peacekeeping history.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Non-Governmental Organization, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Norway

516. Tiptoeing Through Afghanistan: The Future of UN State-Building

Author:
Simon Chesterman
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Afghanistan represents a radically different model in the panoply of UN peace operations. On paper it resembles earlier assistance missions that provided governance and development support to post-conflict societies. In practice, however, the UN mission remains intimately involved with the Afghan Transitional Administration and therefore with the peace process that put it in place. This disjunction between formal authority and practical influence poses a challenge not only for the specific operation in Afghanistan but also to accepted models of UN peace operations more generally. Most analyses of UN peace operations suggest that the more complex the political environment, the larger the amount of resources required to complete the mandate. On any such measure, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) faces an uphill battle. UNAMA is instead pursuing a high-risk strategy that requires two conceptual leaps from the normal mould of peace operations. The first is that it is possible to blur the normal distinction between negotiating a peace agreement and implementing it. The second is that the UN can make up for its small mandate and limited resources through exercising greater than normal political influence. There is widespread agreement among UNAMA and most of its Afghan partners that expansion of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) beyond Kabul would be an important stabilizing factor in this process. If it is to be done, it should be done urgently, while all parties are still buying into the Loya Jirga process. Given the reaction of the United States and potential troop-contributing nations, however, expansion now appears highly unlikely. Every UN mission and development programme now stresses the importance of local 'ownership'. This may be the first mission where some of the local population themselves are truly taking charge. Development, however, is notoriously supply- rather than demand-driven; donor countries are infamous for pledging one thing and delivering another. Agencies must therefore take this into account when constructing fictional budgetary targets that they know will not be met, making responsible financial planning still more difficult. Compounding these problems is confusion in Afghanistan as to what projects are actually going to be funded and when. This is partly caused by the refusal of some of the largest donors to have their money pooled into a trust fund for the whole of Afghanistan. The Emergency Loya Jirga was intended to encourage Afghans from all parts of the country to 'buy into the peace process'. This phrase was used metaphorically, but should also be understood literally. Encouraging Afghans to see the solutions to their problems as lying in the embryonic institutions of the state is good politics internationally. It is also Afghanistan's best chance for stability and relative prosperity.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

517. Security and Development in Sierra Leone

Author:
Lotta Hagman
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
In Sierra Leone and elsewhere, the fields of security and development are intrinsically linked and cannot be treated as separate spheres. Just as activities by security actors have an impact on development programs, development activities have security implications. More work is needed in defining a common agenda at the intersection of security and development in order to foster strategies in both areas that are mutually reinforcing. On an operational level, making development thinking part of a peacekeeping operation from the outset, both in planning and implementation should be a priority.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa

518. The Political Economy of War and Peace

Author:
Charles Cater
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The focus of the International Peace Academy's annual New York seminar, held at West Point on May 6-10, 2002, was “The Political Economy of War and Peace.” The aim of this policy development seminar was to introduce policymakers and practitioners to the emerging analytical and policy agenda of the political economy of war and peacemaking so that peace missions may be better equipped to deal with the economic legacies of conflict and the resulting challenges for building sustainable peace.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
New York

519. The Politics of Sanctions

Author:
Simon Chesterman and Béatrice Pouligny
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Do sanctions work? The jury remains out on this question, but two preliminary issues bear further examination also. What are sanctions intended to achieve? And do states actually want sanctions to work? These essentially political questions depend on two discrete dynamics that are the subject of this report, which focuses on sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council. The first is the political context of the Council and how the intentions of key actors are channelled into sanctions regimes. The second is the political economy in which those sanctions operate.
Topic:
International Relations, Peace Studies, Political Economy, and United Nations

520. Sharing Best Practices on Conflict Resolution

Author:
John Packer, Augustine Toure, Albrecht Schnabel, and Chandra Lekha Sriram
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The UN does not act alone in conflict prevention. It is important for the UN to identify other actors with comparative advantages in certain aspects of conflict prevention, and to partner wisely with them. These may include regional and subregional organizations as well as local actors such as states or civil society organizations. Increased coordination between the UN and regional, subregional and civil society organizations might enable better linkages between national, regional and international conflict prevention efforts and improve planning at the field and headquarters level. Regional and subregional organizations offer important opportunities for partnering for the UN, but are quite varied in terms of resources, the political will that they can mobilize, and institutional capacity. Development of institutional capacity within nations to manage conflict peacefully can be assisted and encouraged by regional organizations and others. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's High Commissioner on National Minorities may be one example; the work of Organization of African States in democratization and human rights is also instructive. UN and World Bank development activities are increasingly being viewed through a conflict-prevention lens; their evaluations may help in not only identifying early warning signs, but also in developing strategies that mitigate the potential for violent conflict. Such analyses and approaches could be usefully adapted by regional and subregional organizations. The UN Staff College training course in early warning and preventive measures has sought to develop analytic skills in staff such that early warning can be translated into specific policy guidance. Such training will be available to some regional organization staff; the courses might usefully be adapted by such organizations for their own use.
Topic:
Civil Society, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe