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231. A Poisoned Well: Lessons in Mediation from South Sudan’s Troubled Peace Process

Author:
Zach Vertin
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
In 2013, the world’s newest nation—the Republic of South Sudan—descended into civil war. External actors moved quickly to convene peace talks under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), leading to a comprehensive peace deal in August 2015. But the agreement unraveled just a year later, before it could be implemented, and the war metastasized. This paper examines the IGAD-led peace process for South Sudan from 2013 to 2015. Viewed through a prism of mediation best practice, it is a critical assessment of the attempt to negotiate a settlement of the conflict and a distillation of lessons learned. While singular conclusions are hard to draw, the paper concludes that the process may have helped to slow South Sudan’s civil war and provided a platform to confront the fundamental changes required to transform state and society. But inherent flaws meant the peace deal lacked the political will, broad national ownership, and implementing authorities necessary to make it stick. As IGAD member states and international partners now attempt to “revitalize” the peace process, they would be wise to evaluate, and build upon, its lessons.
Topic:
Development, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

232. From the Ground Up: UN Support to Local Mediation in Libya

Author:
José S. Vericat and Mosadek Hobrara
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Libya’s overarching statelessness, and the violence and lawlessness that result, permeate the country, which is plagued by local-level conflicts. However, local mediation efforts have flourished over the last few years. As a senior UN official noted, “Local mediation is the best thing that has happened in Libya since the revolution.” This report examines these local mediation processes to explore the significance of their impact. It focuses on the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and the support it provides internal efforts in Libya to solve local conflicts or the mediation of such disputes. It also describes and analyzes how Libyans themselves are able to address and resolve local conflicts, or at least contain their escalation. The report offers a number of lessons based on the challenges UNSMIL has faced in supporting local mediation efforts in Libya. These include the importance of leveraging soft power, taking a coordinated and long-term approach, linking the local and national levels, ensuring sovereignty and local ownership, intervening through local mediators, and expanding beyond traditional political actors.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, Peace, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

233. Local Networks for Peace: Lessons from Community-Led Peacebuilding

Author:
Lesley Connolly, Laura Powers, Senzwesihle Ngubane, Patrick Kanyangara, Kessy Ekomo-Soignet, Nicolas Chamat Matallana, Stephen Kirimi, Hasini Haputhanthri, Masana Ndinga-Kanga, and Webster Zambara
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
In recent years, there have been increasing calls to ensure local ownership of peacebuilding design and practice, to take local knowledge fully into account in designing peacebuilding programs and assessing conflicts, and to strive for the meaningful participation of local peacebuilding actors. In the search for new approaches to connect local-level initiatives to international programs and to move local knowledge from the bottom up, community-led peacebuilding networks may have a key role to play. This volume includes case studies of community-led peacebuilding networks in Burundi, the Central African Republic, Colombia, Kenya, Liberia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and Zimbabwe to identify approaches for more inclusive and integrated peacebuilding. These case studies, written by local peacebuilders working in each of the countries, underscore the organizational, political, and financial advantages and risks to operating as part of a broader network. The aim of this report is to enhance understanding among international peacebuilding practitioners and policymakers of peacebuilding network structures, including their comparative advantages and challenges. In doing so, it aims to guide efforts not only to incorporate local knowledge and expertise into international initiatives but also to identify how these efforts can support and magnify local efforts. By better understanding how local peacebuilding networks operate in their communities, the international community can begin to better understand the challenges local organizations face, how to support and strengthen peacebuilding work on the ground, and how such initiatives contribute to building and sustaining peace.
Topic:
Civil Society, Women, Youth, Networks, Peace, and Community
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, South Asia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Colombia, Liberia, Zimbabwe, Burundi, and Central African Republic

234. The Mission Is Gone, but the UN Is Staying: Liberia’s Peacekeeping Transition

Author:
Daniel Forti and Lesley Connolly
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
From 2003 to 2018, the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) was ever-present throughout the country. The peacekeeping mission’s work, and its transition out of the country, are considered positive examples of how the UN can support countries through conflict and post-conflict phases. Nevertheless, UNMIL’s transition offers many lessons that member states, UN officials, and international partners can learn in order to strengthen future UN peacekeeping transitions. This paper examines the process of Liberia’s transition from a peacekeeping mission to a UN country team configuration, focusing on the period from July 2016 to July 2018. It identifies the political and operational dynamics that drove the transition, examines the policy processes and context within which the transition was executed, and assesses the ability of the UN’s post-mission configuration to sustain peace in Liberia. The paper underscores that member states and the UN Secretariat should change their approach to transitions from racing against deadlines to instead viewing them as processes that begin well before a peacekeeping mission closes and continue for several years after the mission ends. By viewing transitions as long-term, multi-stakeholder activities, member states have the opportunity to ensure that future transitions adopt integrated approaches with adequate political, operational, and financial support.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Peace, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

235. Global Terrorism Index 2018: Measuring and understanding the global impact of terrorism

Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace
Abstract:
The GTI is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) based on data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Data for the GTD is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland. The GTD contains over 170,000 terrorist incidents for the period 1970 to 2017. Deaths from terrorism fell for the third consecutive year, after peaking in 2014. The total number of deaths fell by 27 per cent between 2016 and 2017, with the largest falls occurring in Iraq and Syria. Iraq recorded over 5,000 fewer deaths from terrorism in 2017, while Syria recorded over 1,000 fewer deaths. The fall in deaths was reflected in scores on the GTI, with 94 countries improving, compared to 46 that deteriorated. This is the highest number of countries to record a year on year improvement since 2004 and reflects the increased emphasis placed on countering terrorism around the world since the surge in violence in 2013. The large falls in the number of deaths in Iraq and Syria is mainly the result of ISIL’s continuing decline. The number of deaths from terrorist attacks attributed to ISIL fell by 52 per cent in 2017, with total incidents falling by 22 per cent. There was a corresponding decrease in the lethality of attacks, highlighting the weakening capacity of the organisation. ISIL has now lost most of its territory and sources of revenue and is actively redirecting resources away from the Middle East and into North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia.
Topic:
Political Violence, Economics, Terrorism, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, Southeast Asia, Global, and Sub-Saharan Africa

236. Economic Value of Peace 2018: Measuring the global impact violence and conflict

Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace
Abstract:
This report is the latest release by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) on the economic impact of violence and conflict to the global economy. It provides an empirical basis for understanding the economic benefits resulting from improvements in peace. Estimates of the economic impact of violence are provided for 163 countries and independent territories, covering over 99.5 per cent of the global population.
Topic:
Peace Studies, Peacekeeping, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

237. Positive Peace 2018: Analysing the factors that sustain peace

Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace
Abstract:
The same factors that create peace also lead to many other positive outcomes that societies aspire to, such as thriving economies, better inclusion, high levels of resilience and societies that are more capable of adapting to change. Other factors positively associated with Positive Peace are better performance on ecological measures, well-being and happiness. Therefore, Positive Peace can be described as creating an optimum environment in which human potential can flourish. Through placing the emphasis on the positive, Positive Peace reframes our conceptualisation towards what works. The factors that create resilience are different to those needed to stop conflict. Positive Peace, when combined with systems thinking, also provides a theory of change. Changes in Positive Peace precede other major societal changes, either for better or worse. Through building the strength of a nation’s Positive Peace, the nation’s overall trajectory can also be improved. Stimuli have cascading effects, due to the feedback loops contained within national systems pushing societies into virtuous or vicious cycles. However, these cycles can be changed. Positive Peace provides a roadmap of what societies need to change to either improve or break vicious cycles.
Topic:
Peace Studies and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

238. Global Peace Index 2018: Measuring peace in a complex world

Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace
Abstract:
This is the twelfth edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace using three thematic domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to presenting the findings from the 2018 GPI, this year’s report includes analysis of trends in Positive Peace: the attitudes, institutions, and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies. It looks at changes in indicators of Positive Peace that immediately precede deteriorations or improvements in peacefulness, which provides a framework for predictive analysis. The report also assesses the ways in which high levels of peace positively influence major macroeconomic indicators.
Topic:
Economics, Peace Studies, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

239. Mexico Peace Index 2018:A comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico

Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace
Abstract:
The 2018 Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico. The MPI is based on the work of the Global Peace Index, which is the leading measure of global peacefulness and has been produced by IEP every year since 2007. This is the fifth annual edition of the MPI, setting out the key trends, patterns and drivers of peace in Mexico, while also highlighting the most significant policy opportunities available to governments. The report analyses the dynamics of violence in Mexico and the strengths and weaknesses of the attitudes, institutions and structures, known as Positive Peace, needed to substantially lower the rates of violence. The report also estimates the significant economic impact of violence to the Mexican economy and the need to increase the level of investment in violence containment. Finally, the report provides strong quantitative evidence to aid in the development of policies to create a more peaceful society. The research is of assistance to policymakers, researchers, business leaders and the general public in building peace in Mexico.
Topic:
Economics, Peace Studies, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Central America and Mexico

240. Financing Armed Groups During Ceasefires

Author:
Veronique Dudouet and Janel B. Galvanek
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
While the financing sources of non-state armed groups (NSAGs) both during active hostilities and after peace agreements has received much attention in the academic and peace-practitioner fields, information about the funding of NSAGs during the time between active fighting and the conclusion of a peace agreement is much less available. This study aims to fill that gap by investigating the sources of financial support for armed groups during ceasefires and peace negotiations. Through information gathered from the selected cases of ETA in the Basque Country, the LTTE in Sri Lanka, the KNU in Myanmar, GAM in Aceh, and several armed groups in Mali, the study examines the various internal and external options available for NSAG funding when a unilateral or bilateral ceasefire is in place and analyses whether ceasefires represent a fundraising constraint or an opportunity for non-state belligerents. The study also makes projections for the longer-term prospects of NSAGs’ receiving financial support to sustain their post-war security, political and socio-economic transformations. Lastly, some general lessons are drawn for third parties involved in supporting peace processes with NSAGs.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Peace, Ceasefire, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus