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181. Diplomacy, the Eritrea-Ethiopia Peace Deal and its Implications

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On 5 June 2018, Ethiopia’s ruling coalition; Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) under its new leader, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared that it shall accept the terms of a peace agreement with neighbouring Eritrea. The announcement came as a shock both to the international community and analysts who follow politics in the Horn of Africa. Beneath the declaration were years of silent diplomatic undertakings which have been given relatively lesser attention as the charismatic nature of Ethiopia’s new Prime Minister has taken centre stage. This Brief shall emphasize the role of diplomacy in the build-up to the announcement as well as the unique nature of Prime Minister Ahmed; in doing so, it is intrinsic to capture the historical context of the border conflict, an alternative explanation to diplomacy as well as the rewards of the peace deal and its challenges (implications). The Brief concludes by making a case for diplomacy as it still remains a viable factor in terms of conflict resolution in Africa.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

182. Peace Talks on Afghanistan. A Last Opportunity for Peace? / Conversaciones de paz sobre Afganis-tán ¿Una última oportunidad para la paz?

Author:
Javier Ruiz Arévalo
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
When it has been more than 17 years since the fall of the Taliban regime, the Afghan conflict is far from being over. The country continues to experience a kind of resilient civil war in which neither the legitimate government of Kabul, supported by a large part of the international community, nor the Taliban have managed to impose themselves in a clear and lasting manner. To date, it seems that none of the contenders considers it feasible that the conflict will end with a military victory. This reality has ended up addressing all the direct actors (the government of Kabul, the US and the Taliban) and the indirect actors (NATO, Russia, Pakistan, Iran...) to seek a negotiated end. The task is not easy given the difficulty to find an acceptable definition for everyone on the Afghanistan that should arise from the agreement. Reconciling the Islamic Republic that some advocate, with the Democratic State designed by the current Constitution is not an easy task. Perhaps for this reason, more than a decade of talks has not been enough to illuminate a peace agreement acceptable to all. At first, one might think that nothing has changed and that the talks currently undegoing are hopelessly doomed to failure, as they face the same problem as all previous attempts: the impossibility of reconciling the interests of the Afghan government, the Taliban and the US and its allies. However, it seems that the ongoing talks have been addressed by the US and the Taliban with a different spirit. The fatigue after so many years of conflict and the evidence, eventually assumed, of the impossibility of a military victory seems to have made a dent in both, making them see that there are only two possible options: accept an imperfect agreement or be doomed to an endless war.
Topic:
Taliban, Political stability, Conflict, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

183. Terrorism in the Political Landscape of Post-peace Accord in Colombia / El terrorismo en el escenario del post-acuerdo en Colombia

Author:
Olmer Muñoz Sánchez, Julie Pontvianne, and Sebastián Álvarez Posada
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
In Colombia, terrorism is not a new threat to national security. Terrorism historically has been closely linked to the existence of an internal armed conflict and to the evolution of the “method of action” (método de acción) carried out by its main and secondary actors (guerrilla fighters, drug traffickers, militiamen). This article aims to analyze the different types of terrorism that have existed in Colombia as well as the way they have affected security and, finally, present its evolution in the national political context, from the signing of the most recent peace accord to the present.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

184. 919-2019: How to Make Peace Last? European Strategy and the Future of the World Order

Author:
Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The commemorations of the Great War have come to and end. 2019 will see the centenary of the peace treaties that concluded the war, starting with Versailles, and of the founding of the League of Nations, the predecessor of the United Nations. These failed to establish a stable rules-based world order, but they deserve to be commemorated nonetheless, as well as analysed, for we might learn something from them. This policy brief offers four insights from the Interbellum to help us avoid a collapse of the world order today: (1) A world order that is created for the express purpose of keeping one of the great powers outside the system, is bound to fail. (2) If breaking the rules carries no consequences, the world order will be hollowed out and, eventually, collapse. (3) A great power who refuses to invest in the world order, cannot expect the others to do so. (4) No state voluntarily submits to another: a world order that is only imposed and not accepted, will not last long.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Organization, United Nations, Military Strategy, Peace, and League of Nations
Political Geography:
Europe

185. It’s Time to Build a Gender-Just Peace: Here is How

Author:
Nina Wilen
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Following the adoption of UN resolution 1325 in 2000, the past two decades have seen increased attention to women’s roles in peace and conflict matters. Despite this, women continue to be marginalised in peacekeeping missions, peace negotiations and peace-building processes. This marginalisation clearly undermines the chances of building a sustainable and equitable peace. The following brief argues that it is time to include women and build gender-just peace by: 1) tackling security concerns both in the public and the private sphere; 2) empowering women socioeconomically; 3) improving the participation and representation of women in higher positions. The brief identifies concrete examples for each of these aspects and concludes that in spite of many dilemmas, there are still many practical steps for moving towards a more gender-just and sustainable peace.
Topic:
Gender Issues, United Nations, Peace, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

186. Untangling Justice, Peace and Amnesties in the Central African Republic

Author:
Valerie Arnould
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The question of amnesties has come to the forefront once again as the Central African Republic (CAR) started a new round of African Union-mediated peace negotiations on 24 January 2019. While rebel groups demanded a general amnesty as a non-negotiable condition, the government maintained strong opposition to any new amnesty. The Khartoum peace agreement signed on 6 February 2019 did not uphold rebel groups’ demand for a general amnesty, but it leaves many grey areas concerning the question of amnesty and justice. Consequently, it is likely that the question of amnesties or pardons will resurface in the course of the agreement’s implementation. Drawing on broader discussions about the amnesty dilemma and examining the provisions of the 2019 Khartoum peace agreement, this policy brief sets out the key parameters which frame the amnesty question in the CAR.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Conflict, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa and Central African Republic

187. The Normandy Summit on Ukraine: no winners, no losers, to be continued

Author:
Arkady Moshes
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The French-German-Russian-Ukrainian top-level encounter could not and did not deliver a prospect of resolving the conflict in Donbas, but the limits of the possible are now clearer. No certainty, but the “draw” may push the parties closer to a sustainable ceasefire.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Humanitarian Intervention, and Peace
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, France, and Germany

188. White Book of the Civil Society for Peace and Security in Mali

Author:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This White Book for Peace and Security is the Malian civil society's contribution to (inter)national security and development strategies in Mali. It seeks to bring forward the perspectives of local populations in the design and implementation of these strategies. Building on locally collected perceptions, the White Book presents a bottom-up analysis of the country’s most urgent security challenges and provides tailored recommendations for policymakers to achieve long-term stability in the country.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Development, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

189. Climate Security: Making it #Doable

Author:
Karolina Eklöw, Florian Krampe, Malin Mobjörk, and Dan Smith
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Climate-related events left no region unaffected in 2018. These events demonstrate how climate change impacts are worsening. Despite increased geopolitical tensions that seem to undermine the Agenda 2030 or the Paris Agreement, global and regional organisations have been able to achieve some progress in addressing and mitigating climate-related security risks. This report, prepared for the Planetary Security Conference taking place in The Hague on 19–20 February 2019, feeds into the conversation by sketching the past year’s trends in relation to climate and security.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Geopolitics, Risk, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

190. The Foreign Military Presence in the Horn of Africa Region

Author:
Neil J. Melvin
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The Horn of Africa is undergoing far-reaching changes in its external security environment. A wide variety of international security actors—from Europe, the United States, the Middle East, the Gulf and Asia—are currently operating in the region. As a result, the Horn of Africa has experienced a proliferation of foreign military bases and a build-up of naval forces. The external militarization of the Horn poses major questions for the future security and stability of the region. This SIPRI Background Paper is the first of three papers devoted to the new external security politics of the Horn of Africa. The paper maps the growth of foreign military forces in and around the Horn over the past two decades. The other two papers in this series are ‘The New External Security Politics of the Horn of Africa Region’ (SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security, April 2019) and ‘Managing the New External Security Politics of the Horn of Africa Region’ (SIPRI Policy Brief, April 2019).
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Indian Ocean, and Horn of Africa