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2. There are certain times when national security challenges must overcome a divided nation
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar, Yaakov Amidror, and Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel is facing a series of critical decisions in the national security arena, and the necessary condition for dealing with those challenges is maintaining maximum national cohesion. Therefore, lowering the flames in the current public debates and reaching a compromise is imperative.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, National Security, Leadership, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
3. Alaska Electoral Reform: The Top 4 Primary and Ranked-Choice-Voting
- Author:
- Jerry McBeath
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Why did Alaska develop a top 4, Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system? This article explains the role a blanket primary played in the evolution of Alaska’s nominating process, beset by demands of the rising Alaska Republican Party (ARP) to protect its rights as a political association while the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in California v. Jones constrained states’ interests. In 2019-2020 reformers proposed a new system emphasizing a nonpartisan primary with RCV, which political party leaders opposed. Voters narrowly approved the ballot measure in the 2020 general election; it was used for the first time in a special election, and primaries in 2022 and the following general election. The most significant outcomes were the election of Mary Peltola, a Democrat (and Alaska Native) to the state’s sole seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, and reelection of Republican Lisa Murkowski, senior U.S. senator, who defied former President Donald Trump. The article presents information on major political party registrations, showing switching dominance (from Democratic to Republican). However, from 1970 to 2023, a majority of registrants were either nonpartisan or undeclared, a different pattern than found in the other states. The report compares Alaska’s experience with those of other states using RCV, and concludes with a discussion of the broader implications of the Alaska case.
- Topic:
- Reform, Elections, Voting, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- North America, Alaska, and United States of America
4. The increase in partisan segregation in the United States
- Author:
- Jacob R. Brown, Enrico Cantoni, Ryan D. Enos, Vincent Pons, and Emilie Sartre
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper provides novel evidence on trends in geographic partisan segregation. Using two individual-level panel datasets covering the near universe of the U.S. population between 2008 and 2020, we leverage information on individuals’ party affiliation to construct two key indicators: i) the fraction of Democrats among voters affiliated with either major party, which reveals that partisan segregation has increased across geographical units, at the tract, county, and congressional district levels; ii) The dissimilarity index, which measures differences in the partisan mix across distinct sub-units and highlights that partisan segregation has also increased within geographical units. Tracking individuals across election years, we decompose changes in partisan segregation into different sources: voter migration, generational change, older voters entering the electorate, and voters changing their partisanship or their registration status. The rise in partisan segregation is mostly driven by generational change, in Democratic-leaning areas, and by the increasing ideological conformity of stayers, in Republican-leaning areas.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Ideology, Polarization, Partisanship, and Voting Behavior
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5. Why the American Public is Less Polarized on Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Matthew Rochat
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on International Policy (CIP)
- Abstract:
- It is no secret that American social and political life has become a house divided. Over the past several decades, Americans have gravitated increasingly toward politically like-minded clusters. Political ideology now plays a large role in determining the neighborhoods where we live, the friends and family with whom we spend our time, and the news media that we consume. This divisive trend is not limited to the American public, but also characterizes relations between political elites and has contributed to gridlock in congress. The United States has become divided between two camps of increasingly extreme positions, a phenomenon known as polarization. While public opinion has become increasingly polarized on domestic policy, foreign policy has not been susceptible to the same degree. Though foreign policy divisions are growing among political elites, they have not yet trickled down to the general population. The underlying logic is that party elites do not transmit sufficiently clear cues to the public, who in turn, do not effectively interpret these cues. In simpler terms, elites have failed to effectively distinguish Republican foreign policy from Democrat foreign policy. What explains this communication failure?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political Parties, Polarization, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
6. Overcoming the Global Rift on Venezuela
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The political standoff in Venezuela continues as the country sinks deeper into socio-economic distress. Renewed talks between government and opposition – now on hold – give external partners of both sides an opening to push harder for resolution of the impasse. They should seize the opportunity.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, Strategic Interests, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
7. Montana’s Hard Right Turn
- Author:
- Paul Haber
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Budgets, combined with tax policy, provide rich evidence of the applied values of legislative bodies and executives. This paper evaluates budget and tax legislation in Montana that resulted from the 67th legislative session in 2021 that set policy for the 2023 biennium. Montana, whose political complexation has long been purple, moved unambiguously red in the elections of November 2020. This paper speaks to how this changed things in Montana's public policy, in the areas of budget and tax, and a series of other policy areas. One of the more notable findings is that while budget and tax certainly shifted right with the dominance of the Republican Party that itself has moved further right than where it was as recently as 2019, it did not move as far right as many observers had anticipated. The explanation provided here is that this was largely a result of the large infusion of federal COVID relief funds.
- Topic:
- Governance, Budget, Tax Systems, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- North America, United States of America, and Montana
8. Measuring the impact of self-censorship on political party support in Afrobarometer data using machine learning
- Author:
- Paul Friesen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Measures of political party support are viewed suspiciously in hybrid and authoritarian regimes where the two core indicators of political support – elections and public opinion polling – cannot be readily trusted. More accurately, the degree of measurement error is unknown, though scholars presume support for incumbent leaders and parties is exaggerated. This paper scrutinizes the degree to which political opinions on Afrobarometer surveys can be trusted by re-estimating voting preferences for 34 African countries. First, a range of demographic and interview metadata are regressed upon vote choice to see if they systematically influence vote-preference responses. Next, key markers of potential self-censorship are identified and used to create pools of “clean” and “polluted” data. Clean data are used to train a machine learning model to predict voting intentions, and then all data with self-censorship markers are recalculated. The results show that ruling party support is broadly similar in most countries but exaggerated by more than 10 percentage points in Sudan and Uganda and by between 5 and 10 points in Burundi, Tanzania, Togo, and Zimbabwe. Declines in ruling party support due to self-censorship are concurrent with increases in both non-responses and opposition party support.
- Topic:
- Politics, Censorship, Party System, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- Africa
9. Brazil: Five Phenomena and Three Scenarios
- Author:
- Lauri Tahtinen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Brazil heads into the second round of its general election on Sunday, October 30. This will include runoffs for the governorships in 12 of Brazil’s 26 states, including São Paulo, the most populous and wealthy state. However, most eyes are on the presidential race in which incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is seeking his second term in office and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking his third. In the first round on Sunday, October 2, Lula received 48.4 percent of the vote and Bolsonaro received 43.2 percent. This analysis paints three scenarios for Brazil’s election. The baseline for these scenarios is Lula’s narrow win, and a narrow win for Lula remains the most plausible outcome. If the trends prevalent in September have accelerated through October, Bolsonaro could win narrowly. Conversely, if the trends of September decelerate or even reverse in October, Lula could win handsomely. Based on the first-round results, earlier runoffs, and simple election math, a major Bolsonaro victory is not a realistic outcome.
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, Leadership, Voting, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
10. The Persistence of QAnon in the Post-Trump Era: An Analysis of Who Believes the Conspiracies
- Author:
- PRRI Staff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The right-wing QAnon conspiracy movement emerged on the internet in late 2017. While followers of the QAnon movement claim a variety of different beliefs, the main threads of QAnon’s core theory are that a network of Satan-worshipping pedophiles control the government and media, and that a coming “storm” will sweep them out of power.[1] The QAnon movement centered former President Donald Trump as its key leader, and said he was secretly fighting to unmask the evildoers who controlled the political and economic systems of power. Perhaps the most visible role QAnon has played was in the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol, from which the “QAnon shaman” became an iconic image. Fortunately, the goal of keeping Trump as president despite his electoral defeat was not achieved. Even through Trump leaving office, major social media platforms banning QAnon activity, and the leader of the movement, called “Q,” disappearing from the internet, QAnon has continued to thrive on alternative platforms with a handful of influencers leading the group.[2] PRRI data also shows that the proportion of Americans who believe, or are at least open to believing, QAnon conspiracies held mostly steady throughout 2021.
- Topic:
- QAnon, Conspiracy Theory, Political Extremism, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- United States of America and North America
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