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251. The Development of a Gulf Carbon Platform: Mapping out the Gulf Cooperation Council Carbon Exchange

Author:
Justin Dargin
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have some of the highest greenhouse gas emissions rates per capita in the world. This paper argues that in spite of the extremely high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rates, GCC members will benefit economically, environmentally and geopolitically by constructing a harmonized pan-GCC carbon trading platform that will allow them to make cost-efficient decisions about greenhouse gas abatement. A thorough analysis is undertaken to determine which GHG abatement mechanism would be the best suited for the GCC, with maximum cost and environmental benefits. Based on the unique characteristics of the GCC members, a pan-GCC cap-and-trade framework is suggested. Optimally, policy makers would institute it in a phased, voluntary introduction, to be gradually replaced by a mandatory scheme. If the GCC countries implement such a system, they would be able to rationalize their energy usage for domestic power production, and conserve their oil and gas production for future generations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

252. Providing Energy Services in a Changing Industry

Author:
James E. Rogers
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
July 1, 2010. Anyone following the path of an electron today could be excused for thinking he or she was in the wrong millennium. “Dinosaurs” still rule the world. Large, central power stations produce the vast majority of electricity. Coal, natural gas, some oil, or uranium enters on one end. Electrons and various other byproducts—some innocuous, most not—leave on the other, pushed over long distances across aging transmission lines. Many get lost along the way.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Globalization, Oil, and Law

253. Stabilizing Chad: Security, Governance and Development Challenges

Author:
Dorina Bekoe
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On May 20, 2010, USIP and the International Peace Institute brought together some of Chad's national, regional and international stakeholders to discuss Chad's democratization, the regional security dynamics and the management of the oil sector.Electoral reform, as called for in Chad's 2007 "August 13 Political Agreement," has been poorly implemented, endangering the credibility of the upcoming February legislative elections. Improvements in regional security prompted the Chadian government to request the departure of the United Nations Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT), which was charged with securing and providing humanitarian relief along the Chad-Central African Republic border. However, many question if Chadian forces can fill the security gap. Oil exports have significantly increased Chad's budget, with most of these gains being invested in the military. The improved regional security provides an opportunity to invest in sectors such as education, health care, and development, which have been neglected.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa

255. Turkey as a Regional Energy Hub

Author:
John Roberts
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Turkey has so many factors operating in favor of it becoming one of the world's great energy hubs – and yet there are so many reasons why it may completely fail to fulfill such a goal. The country's inherent geography – its classic position as a crossroads between east and west, between north and south – makes it natural to become a giant center for trading in oil, gas and petrochemicals. But its attitude – the accumulation of its foreign policy, its approach to energy transit and to internal energy development, and its own uncertainty as to its place in the world in general and its involvement in Europe in particular – tells quite a different story. The future of Turkey as a gas trading hub lies very much in Turkey's own hands. For such a hub to emerge will require Turkey to opt for domestic market liberalization over statism (étatism).
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Oil
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

256. Inclusive Institutions and the Onset of Internal Conflict in Resource-rich Countries

Author:
Tim Wegenast
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The literature on institutional determinants of intra-state violence commonly asserts that the presence of multiple political parties reduces the conflict potential within countries; by co-opting oppositional groups into an institutionalized political arena, dissidents would prefer parliamentarian means over violent rebellion in order to pursue their goals. The present paper shows that this proposition does not necessarily hold for fuel-abundant states. In the presence of natural resources such as oil or gas, countries exhibiting numerous non-competitive parties are actually more susceptible to internal conflict. Fortified by the establishment of legal political parties, regime opponents succumb more easily to the prospects of securing resource revenues, adopting rapacious behaviour. Fuel-related internal grievances as well as the opposition's disaffection over the lack of effective political leverage and government use of political violence provide a seemingly legitimate motive for armed rebellion. Moreover, financial means for insurgency are raised by extortion or the possibility of selling future exploitation rights to natural resources. Logit models using different estimation techniques and alternative operationalizations corroborate the proposed claim. The argumentation is further illustrated by a depiction of the Colombian case.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Democratization, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Colombia

257. Fuel for Conflict or Balm for Peace? Assessing the Effects of Hydrocarbons on Peace Efforts in Algeria

Author:
Miriam Shabafrouz
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper explores the use of hydrocarbon revenues in post-conflict Algeria. While the bloody years of the 1990s now seem to be over, recurring terror attacks and the ongoing state of emergency leave room for doubt that a situation of stable peace has been achieved yet. It is therefore necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of post-conflict peace-building efforts in Algeria and identify ways of improving these measures. The resources, which are mainly controlled by the central state, can have positive and negative effects on the political economy: they can enhance growth and possibilities for the distribution of wealth, but the dependency on them makes the whole economy vulnerable to crises. Analysing the economic (and other) causes of the outbreak of the intra-state war in 1992 and the reasons for its escalation and its fading out can be revealing when assessing the extent to which critical conditions have or have not been addressed by recent and current peace‐building efforts. The author's analysis reveals that the measures taken by the government—such as implementing a programme of national reconciliation, the stimulation of certain sectors of the economy and the resolute reduction of foreign debt—all aim at stabilization and have all been driven by hydrocarbon income to a large extent. However, the recent rise and sudden drop in the price of oil and gas have both had an effect on the scope of these measures and reveal their limits. Moreover, some of the critical causes of the civil war such as the unfair distribution of revenue, the lack of political participation and destabilizing demographic changes still persist and have largely remained unaddressed. One of the author's concluding assumptions therefore is that it is very likely that the use of resource revenues for conflict prevention and peace‐building will only lead to sustainable results when embedded in full-fledged reforms of Algeria's entire economic and political system.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Algeria

258. La seguridad energética en la política exterior de

Author:
María Florencia Rubiolo
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
The growing pace of the People's Republic of China,which between the years 1999 and 2008 kept an averageannual rate over 9%, has caused an increasing need ofnatural resources. Since 1993, when the country turnsinto a distinct oil importer, Beijing's worries regardingenergetic dependence and supply instability deepened.In tune with the domestic energy context, Beijing startsto redefine its foreign policy strategies based on a newconcept of energy security. The aim of this article is toanalyze how this concept influences the contemporaryChinese foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
China and Beijing

259. Reducing the U.S. Transportation Sector's Oil Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Author:
Henry Lee, Kelly Sims Gallagher, W. Ross Morrow, and Gustavo Collantes
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Harder Than it Looks. Reducing oil consumption and carbon emissions from transportation is a much greater challenge than conventional wisdom assumes. It will require substantially higher fuel prices, ideally in combination with more stringent regulation. Higher Gasoline Prices Essential. Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the transportation sector 14% below 2005 levels by 2020 may require gas prices greater than $7/gallon by 2020. Tax Credits Expensive. While relying on subsidies for electric or hybrid vehicles is politically seductive, it is extremely expensive and an ineffective way to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the near term. Climate and Economy Not a Zero Sum Game. Aggressive climate change policy need not bring the economy to a halt. Even under high-fuels-tax, high-carbon price scenarios, losses in annual GDP, relative to business-as-usual, are less than 1%, and the economy is still projected to grow at 2.1-3.7% per year assuming a portion of the revenues collected are recycled to taxpayers.
Topic:
Climate Change and Oil
Political Geography:
United States

260. Ghosts of crises past: Comparing Japanese policy effectiveness in the 1970s oil crises and contemporary climate change

Author:
Alexandru Luta
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Due to the immense strain they put on policymakers, the oil crises of the 1970s and the contemporary challenge of anthropogenic global warming must represent two of the greatest tests of Japanese energy policy of the past 50 years. As such, the policy response to the oil crises had been effective, but the challenges posed by global warming have not been met with equal success–and this situation partly stems from the measures adopted in response to the previous crisis.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Japan