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31. Financing for the Polish economy: prospects and threats

Author:
Andrzej Halesiak, Ernest Pytlarczyk, Mariusz Wieckowski, and Stefan Kawalec
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In a properly functioning economy, finance has important role to play in making main sectors of the economy – production, trade, services – to thrive. One of the most important – and often unappreciated – channels by which finance affects the processes taking place in the real sector is the selection of investment projects. It is banks and financial intermediaries that to a great degree decide which projects are carried out in the economy at a given moment, and which are not. If financial institutions are excessively conservative (which today is often an effect of the tight regulatory environment), they will prefer low-risk projects with high levels of collateral (e.g. mortgage loans). A financial system oriented this way will rarely be a source of problems, but at the same time not inclined to finance innovative projects with high potential to benefit the economy. Thus for any economy, a very important question is whether its regulatory framework smartly balances both of these aspects: financial system safety and the need to take on risk. When analyzing the functioning of the financial system, it’s worth noting the gradual blurring of certain traditional boundaries. While decades ago households were the main source of savings in the economy, and the borrowers were enterprises and the public sector, today both households and companies are on both sides, as suppliers and receivers of capital. The boundary between the functioning of banks and capital markets is also increasingly blurred. Today banks operate broadly through the capital market, both as acquirers of securities and as issuers. One area that has been developing dynamically in recent years is the flow of financial resources bypassing traditional intermediaries: direct lending through the peer-to-peer (P2P - direct financing of a project by business partners) and crowdfunding platforms (fundraising by collecting money online).
Topic:
Demographics, GDP, Financial Markets, Economy, Banks, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

32. Beyond Poles and Wires: How to Keep the Electrons Flowing?

Author:
Navroz K. Dubash and Ashwini K. Swain
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
India’s move to electrify every village and household in the country has been lauded as a success. Building on decades of targeted programmes and public investments by multiple governments, the country completed 100% village electrification in April 2018; a year after, it has electrified nearly all ‘willing’ households. Despite the time it took to get here, these achievements are important milestones in India’s development trajectory. But does connecting households to the electric grid resolve the electricity access challenge? The answer depends on whether electrons flow through the wires and whether all consumers are served equally and adequately.
Topic:
Development, Government, Infrastructure, Investment, and Electricity
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

33. The Impact of Business Regulatory Quality on Private Sector Investment in Botswana

Author:
Kedibonye Sekakela
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
A market-friendly regulatory environment is key for private sector investment. In this paper, we examine the impact of business regulatory quality on private sector investment in Botswana. The paper finds that the business regulatory environment stimulates private sector investment in the long term and this phenomenon occurs when the quality of bureaucracy improves, among other factors. Other critical factors affecting private sector investment examined in this paper include; corporate credit, output and public infrastructure investment. Private sector investment responds positively to increases in corporate credit in the short term but not responsive in the long term. Economic activities support private sector investment positively but weak. On the other hand, public infrastructure investment crowds in(out) investment in the short and long term respectively. Policy wise, Botswana should further deepen its efforts towards creating a market-friendly regulatory environment and also consider how business regulatory quality interact with other policy variables for better investment and growth outcomes.
Topic:
Economics, Developing World, Regulation, Business, Investment, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

34. The state of China-European Union economic relations

Author:
Uri Dadush, Marta Dominguez-Jimenez, and Tianlang Gao
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
China and the European Union have an extensive and growing economic relationship. The relationship is problematic because of the distortions caused by China’s state capitalist system and the diversity of interests within the EU’s incomplete federation. More can be done to capture the untapped trade and investment opportunities that exist between the parties. China’s size and dynamism, and its recent shift from an export-led to a domestic demand-led growth model, mean that these opportunities are likely to grow with time. As the Chinese economy matures, provided appropriate policy steps are taken, it is likely to become a less disruptive force in world markets than during its extraordinary breakout period.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, European Union, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

35. How does China fare on the Russian market? Implications for the European Union

Author:
Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Jianwei Xu
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
China’s economic ties with Russia are deepening. Meanwhile, Europe remains Russia’s largest trading partner, lender and investor. An analysis of China’s ties with Russia, indicate that China seems to have become more of a competitor to the European Union on Russia’s market. Competition over investment and lending is more limited, but the situation could change rapidly with China and Russia giving clear signs of a stronger than ever strategic partnership.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Investment, and Exports
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, and Asia

36. NATO’s Futures: the Atlantic Alliance between Power and Purpose

Author:
Sten Rynning
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
This NDC Research Paper argues that in spite of these warning signs, NATO can regain its balance between power and purpose and thus secure its future. NATO’s balancing act is ultimately a question of leadership: it is within the reach of Allied leaders to balance the interests and geopolitics of Europe and Asia, as well as the restrained and affirmative policies that represent Canada and Europe’s inclination for concerted diplomacy on the one hand and the United States inclination for strategic engagement on the other. Regrettably, these leaders may be drawn to some of the easy NATO visions that offer stringency of purpose, as in “come home to Europe”, or inversely, “go global”. Yet the reality of the Alliance’s geopolitical history and experience is that NATO is strong when apparently contrasting interests are molded into a balanced vision. Today, NATO can only encourage European investment in global, US-led policy if it secures stability in Europe, while inversely, NATO can only secure US investment in Europe’s security order if the Allies are open to coordination on global affairs. The report first outlines the basic geopolitical trends with which the Alliance is confronted: an Alliance leader questioning its heritage of overseas engagement, China’s rise as a great power, an emerging alignment between China and Russia in opposition to liberal order, and the track record of southern unconventional threats dividing the Allies on matters such as counter-terrorism, immigration control, stabilization and development. The Allies seem to be hesitating on the West-East axis and paralyzed as a collective on southern issues, which leads the report to sketch three NATO futures.
Topic:
NATO, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Liberal Order, and Investment
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, North Atlantic, Asia, and North America

37. Navigating the Belt and Road Initiative Recommendations to ensure beneficial and sustainable BRI outcomes

Author:
Daniel R. Russel and Blake Berger
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Launched in 2013, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a highly ambitious development effort that would sew together infrastructure projects across more than 70 countries. Estimated to comprise of more than USD $1 trillion in Chinese investment, the BRI is arguably China's broadest economic engagement effort with the rest of the world — enhancing its connectivity through Southeast, South, Central, and West Asia; Africa; Europe; and South America. The Asia Society Policy Institute project – Navigating the Belt and Road Initiative – examines BRI with the aim of setting forth actionable recommendations for how China and partner countries can help ensure that BRI projects yield beneficial and sustainable developmental, economic, environmental, civic, and social outcomes. The project includes a report by the same name, which is available for download below, as well as an interactive visualization of 12 recommended practices and their specific implementation steps, intended outcomes, and relevant Chinese and international precedents. (For interactive content see: https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/belt-and-road-initiative)
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Soft Power, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Investment, and Economic Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, South Asia, Central Asia, Asia, South America, Southeast Asia, and West Asia

38. Defence projects and the economy

Author:
Rob Bourke
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Abstract:
This report examines what the national economy stands to gain from nearly $100 billion of planned investment in new defence capital equipment including submarines, frigates and military vehicles. The report emphasises that although the general public has been informed about some of the economic benefits of those projects, it has limited access to reliable information on most of their economic costs. Nor has the public been fully informed of how much of what goes into the projects will be produced in Australia. The picture emerging from information available publicly contrasts with the image of vessel and vehicle projects as a major source of ‘jobs and growth’. At best, the projects appear to have a small positive impact on economic activity. That’s due to the substantial economic costs involved. Author Rob Bourke said that ‘for such large projects whose economic benefits have been portrayed as being far above their economic costs, it’s surprising how little supporting evidence has been made available to Australian taxpayers. With the economic upside of projects touted widely but the economic downside largely hidden from public view, it’s difficult to assess the merits of investments of national significance. Government messaging suggests that projects add much more to the economy than they take away. The evidence available publicly paints a different picture: Australia potentially paying a lot to protect a little. Vessel and vehicle acquisitions might now be difficult to alter. Nonetheless, the lessons in transparency that they provide are important to consider for future investments by Defence, especially with calls for its budget to move well above the current target of 2% of GDP.’
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Economy, and Investment
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

39. China’s global business footprint shrinks

Author:
Derek Scissors
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
China’s investment and construction around the world plunged in the first half of 2019 and is unlikely to return to 2016–17 levels in the foreseeable future. The principal cause is fewer large transactions by state-owned enterprises. These firms rely on foreign currency provided by Beijing for global activities, and hard currency may be rationed indefinitely. There are brighter spots. The raw number of investments held up better than transaction size. The private share of China’s global investment climbed, and the greenfield share rose sharply. Investment in the Belt and Road Initiative outperformed that in traditionally favored rich economies such as Australia. Chinese investment in the US has been minor in size for two years. Policymakers should shift focus from screening to unwanted activity by Chinese firms, including intellectual property theft and other criminal acts. Enforcement targeting specific firms is superior to tariffs but should go beyond largely empty steps taken to date.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economy, Business, and Investment
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

40. Chinese investment: State-owned enterprises stop globalizing, for the moment

Author:
Derek Scissors
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Chinese investment around the world fell sharply in 2018. The decline was most evident later in the year and among state-owned enterprises. These companies also engaged in fewer power construction projects. The number of countries in the Belt and Road Initiative keeps expanding, but activity levels per country are flat. One explanation for weakness in various Chinese efforts to “Go Out” is caution in drawing down foreign exchange reserves. The US has restricted Chinese investment, but it was already small in size in 2018. Serious problems remain—for example, theft and coercive transfer of technology. Firms violating American law should face sanctions, not just investment bans.
Topic:
Globalization, Foreign Direct Investment, Sanctions, Business, and Investment
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America