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11. Russia's War in Ukraine: Two Decisive Factors

Author:
Gilbert W. Merkx
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The various stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and of Ukrainian responses, are analyzed in terms of two decisive factors: 1) force structures and 2) command and control. Both these factors are in turn conditioned by characteristics of the governing political regime and the evolution of that regime.
Topic:
Command and Control, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

12. The Invasion of Southern Gaza

Author:
Michael K. Nagata and Mick Mulroy
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing to discuss the IDF’s movements across southern Gaza, Israel’s current military objectives, and how combat today differs from that of previous weeks.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Armed Conflict, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

13. Russian Disinformation and Propaganda Campaign Justifying the Annexing of Crimea in 2014

Author:
Oksana Voytyuk
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
On February 26, 2014, the Russian Federation annexed the Crimean Peninsula. Russia's offensive actions have been condemned in the international arena, but this has in no way changed the decision of the authorities in the Kremlin. In order to prove the credibility of the occupation of Crimea, the Russian Federation launched a disinformation and propaganda campaign aimed primarily at the internal arena, ie at the Russians. The aim of the article is to analyze selected statements by Vladimir Putin regarding the annexation of Crimea and to try to answer the question of whether disinformation and internal propaganda were effective in convincing Russians that the occupation of Crimea was an act of restoring historical justice. For the purposes of the article, research methods appropriate for international relations were used.
Topic:
Propaganda, Annexation, Disinformation, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Crimea

14. Starr Forum | The Iraq Invasion: 20 years Later

Author:
Peter Krause, Marsin Alshamary, Roger Petersen, and Steven Simon
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
In recognition of the 20th anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq, experts discuss the history behind the war, lessons learned on state-building, and provide commentary on that nation's future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, State Building, Iraq War, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

15. Un año después...

Author:
Lila Roldán Vázquez
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
Este artículo pretende inducir una reflexión sobre las consecuencias de la guerra de Rusia en Ucrania, que ya dura nueve años, particularmente después de la invasión total el 24 de febrero de 2022, y su impacto en el escenario geopolítico internacional.
Topic:
Security, War, Sanctions, Global South, Alliance, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

16. The next war: How Russian hybrid aggression could threaten Moldova

Author:
Dumitru Minzarari
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia could target Moldova by embarking on a limited-scope but overt military invasion; or by pursuing more covert hybrid aggression scenarios. The three most plausible Russian aggression scenarios are: a military action launched from Transnistria; a local, elite-focused rebellion similar to Russia’s exploits in Donbas in 2014, likely centring on the Moldovan region of Gagauzia; and popular unrest stoked by Russia and containing violent elements. The EU and Moldova underestimate the risk of one or more of these happening. The EU’s preferred “resilience” approach to hybrid threats lacks an active component that can effectively respond to, and repel, Russian aggression. Moldova should draw on Western support to implement an “active resilience” policy to better confront and undermine Russian actions. The EU should set up a CSDP mission in Moldova comprising both civilian and military components that helps the Moldovan authorities plan and conduct security threat assessments and protect against military and hybrid risks.
Topic:
European Union, Conflict, Resilience, Hybrid Threats, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Moldova

17. Deterring a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan: Upholding the Status Quo

Author:
Peter Harris
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
The U.S. has a goal to avoid a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but the overriding U.S. interest is to avoid a ruinous war with China. The imperative to avoid a conflict with China should take priority for U.S. leaders. Proposals to deter China by bolstering U.S. military deployments in the Western Pacific are unlikely to succeed and fraught with danger. China has advantages in terms of geographical proximity to Taiwan and superior commitment to resolving the issue on favorable terms. The United States should not commit to fighting a great-power war at a time of China’s choosing. The Taiwanese obviously have the strongest interest in deterring a Chinese invasion of their island. Regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia have the next-strongest interests in preserving stability in East Asia. These actors should do the heavy lifting in deterring China. The U.S. should encourage Taiwan and other regional actors to develop their own means of deterring a Chinese invasion. Working with others, Taiwan has the capacity to inflict severe costs upon Beijing in the event of an armed attack. If calibrated correctly, Taiwan and others might convince Beijing that the various costs of invasion—economic sanctions, opprobrium, military balancing—outweigh the benefits and thus deter China from invading. America’s role should be to support Taiwanese-led efforts to deter China while working to convince all sides that the status quo is sustainable and the U.S. remains committed to its longstanding One China policy. This is the best chance of preventing a war in the Taiwan Strait.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Deterrence, Military, Status Quo, and Invasion
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

18. Latin America Reacts to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author:
Ariel González Levaggi and Nicolás Albertoni
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
The post-Cold War international order drastically changed after the Russian military intervention in Ukraine. Now Latin America must face an international order marked by competition between great powers, fragmentation, and crisis. Latin American countries' relationships with Russia will bear an additional cost. Although Moscow will lose political, economic, and diplomatic influence, observers should not overlook the Russian push to strengthen its military presence in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Order, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Latin America

19. The Black Sea Thread in Russian Foreign Policy and How the United States Can Respond

Author:
Adam Christopher Nettles
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
This article outlines the evolving geopolitical situation in the Black Sea in the context of Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine. It establishes a historically rooted pattern in Russian strategy tied to the region that runs through most recent acts of Russian aggression against its neighbors. It illustrates how after each Russian conflict with its neighbors in the last 20 years Russia has gained more physical coastline on the Black Sea. It roots this behavior in a centuries-long pattern of Russian behavior grounded in practical and ideational motivations. Accordingly, it establishes that Russian aggression in the Black Sea is likely to be a persistent fixture of global great power competition for the near future. The author then proposes a sustainable solution to counter Russian aggression in the theater through U.S. support of the current trend toward increased European “strategic autonomy” within the bounds of the NATO alliance.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Military Strategy, Navy, Transatlantic Relations, Strategic Autonomy, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Black Sea

20. China Maritime Report No. 21: Civilian Shipping and Maritime Militia: The Logistics Backbone of a Taiwan Invasion

Author:
Lonnie D. Henley
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
Most analysts looking at the Chinese military threat to Taiwan conclude that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is incapable of invading the island because it lacks the landing ships to transport adequate quantities of troops and equipment across the Taiwan Strait. This report challenges that conventional wisdom, arguing that the PLA intends to meet these requirements by requisitioning civilian vessels operated by members of China’s maritime militia (海上民兵). Since the early 2000s, the Chinese government and military have taken steps to strengthen the national defense mobilization system to ensure the military has ample quantities of trained militia forces to support a cross-strait invasion. Despite ongoing challenges—including poor data management, inconsistent training quality, and gaps in the regulatory system—and uncertainties associated with foreign-flagged Chinese ships, this concept of operations could prove good enough to enable a large-scale amphibious assault.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Armed Forces, Militias, Logistics, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Invasion
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia