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492. Nuclear Developments in North Korea
- Author:
- Siegfried S. Hecker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Three years ago, Pyongyang expelled the international inspectors from its Yongbyon nuclear complex and abandoned the Six - Party talks. The crisis atmosphere on the Korean peninsula sparked by Pyongyang's military actions in 2010 turned into diplomatic calm in 2011, but Pyongyang continued to expand its nuclear program. It conducted a second nuclear test in 2009, unveiled a modern, sophisticated uranium centrifuge facility, and rolled out a road - mobile intermediate - range ballistic missile in 2010. Its coopera tion in missile technologies with Iran continued and nuclear cooperation is suspected. Beijing protected Pyongyang from crippling sanctions while Washington and Seoul remained reluctant to engage having been burned by Pyongyang's unveiling of its clandestine uranium enrichment program. Prospects for resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis looked grim. Then, surprisingly in December 2011, just before the death of Kim Jong - il, American and North Korean diplomats nearly reached a deal to return to the negotiating table. Even more surprisingly, the new Kim regime agreed to take initial steps with Washington in February. In this paper, I describe the troubling nuclear developments in 2011 and suggest targets for the upcoming negotiations to further reduce the nuclear risks while the parties resume the long road toward eventual denuclearization and normalization of relations on the Korean peninsula.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- North Korea
493. A Winning Gambit
- Author:
- Siegfried S. Hecker
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation
- Abstract:
- CISAC Co-Director Siegfried Hecker explains why nuclear arms states stand to gain more than they lose by ratifying the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). He explains why it is crucial to prevent states from testing nuclear weapons, with the strongest barrier to testing being the CTBT.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- United States
494. Selling the Future in DC. Marketing Stability for International Security
- Author:
- Ariel Colonomos
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- What kind of future worlds do experts of international security envision? This paper studies the role of experts in DC's think tanks, a relatively small world socially and culturally highly homogeneous. It underlines the characteristics of this epistemic community that influence the way its analysts make claims about the future for security. The DC's marketplace of the future lacks diversity. The paradigms analysts use when they study international politics are very similar. Moreover, the range of issues they focus on is also relatively narrow. The paper highlights three main features of the relation between those who make claims about the future of security and those to whom these claims are addressed (mainly policymakers). First, it shows that, for epistemic but also for political reasons, the future imagined in think tanks is relatively stable and linear. This future also contributes to the continuity of political decisions. Second, the paper shows that think tanks are also "victims of groupthink", especially when they make claims about the future. Third, it underlines a paradox: scenarios and predictions create surprises. Claims about the future have a strong tunneling effect. They reinforce preexisting beliefs, create focal points, and operate as blinders when, inevitably, the future breaks away from its linear path.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Terrorism, War, International Security, and State
- Political Geography:
- North America, United States of America, Washington, and D.C.
495. Reluctant India, Rising China and Alliance Politics in the Asia-Pacific
- Author:
- Yogesh Joshi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- US President Barack Obama used his 2012 State of the Union speech to explain that evolving geopolitical realities continue to make the United States indispensable in global politics. In the Asia-Pacific this indispensability emanates, in part, from the waves caused by the rise of China. Consequently, demands for an increased US presence echo around the region. In response, the United States has renewed its commitments to Japan, South Korea and Australia, stepped up its relations with Southeast Asia, and reasserted itself as an important player in multilateral institutions including the East Asia Summit, APEC, and ASEAN. Clearly, in the 21st century, US strategic focus has shifted from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Security, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, India, South Korea, Australia, and Southeast Asia
496. Maritime Security East of Suez Sustaining the U.S. Role as the Key Policeman in Times of Change
- Author:
- Geoffrey Kemp
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for the National Interest
- Abstract:
- At the height of America’s postwar power, in the 1960s and 1970s, the U.S. Seventh Fleet was able to sustain an unchallenged presence “East of Suez” to embrace the Persian Gulf, the Indian Ocean, the Indonesian Straits, and the South and East China Seas as well as the Western Pacific. Today the U.S. remains the dominant maritime power in this vast area, especially in the region to the west of the Straits of Malacca. However, in the region closer to China, the growing power projection and sea denial capabilities of China’s military raises questions about the future ability of the United States to operate with immunity in an area China increasingly believes is part of its own patrimony. Although the United States has many allies in the region, especially Singapore, Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and increasingly Vietnam, the trends in military spending and force deployments suggest the U.S. will have to increasingly rely on cooperation with allies if there is to be a balance against China’s maritime aspirations. The downside of this is that the U.S. must avoid being drawn into the many bilateral disputes between China and its neighbors and must try to play a conciliatory role rather than taking sides. This will inevitably mean that the U.S. will have to play a different role from the one it became accustomed to during its days as the undisputed hegemon. The U.S. will still remain the key policeman in the Indian Ocean and Gulf regions, but will have to adapt to a different role in parts of the Western Pacific and southeast Asian waters.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
497. Extended Deterrence and Security in East Asia.
- Author:
- Paul Saunders
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for the National Interest
- Abstract:
- Following the North Korean sinking of the South Korean frigate Cheonan, and North Korea’s subsequent shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, the Center for the National Interest proposed a U.S.-Japan-South Korea dialogue on extended deterrence in East Asia to assess whether and how the three countries could work together to strengthen stability in a region of vital importance to America’s security and prosperity—and, of course, to the security and prosperity of its close allies. Shortly before the project began, the collision of a Chinese fishing vessel with a Japanese coast guard ship near the Senkaku Islands led to a significant political confrontation between Tokyo and Beijing
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
498. Transatlantic Nations and Global Security: Pivoting and Partnerships
- Author:
- Franklin D. Kramer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The new United States defense guidance has substantial implications for transatlantic nations that must be addressed at the NATO Summit in May. Specifically, how does the longstanding transatlantic security bargain apply in this globalized world? What are the key security challenges at this strategic turning point? How should those challenges be met in a time of financial constraint? And what are the key actions the transatlantic nations should undertake?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Science and Technology, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- United States and Asia
499. Anchoring the Alliance
- Author:
- Nicholas Burns, Damon Wilson, and Jeff Lightfoot
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- NATO leaders will gather in Chicago in May to discuss the war in Afghanistan, defense capabilities, and global partnerships. These are crucial issues for the Alliance, but they will not address the "dim and dismal" outlook warned against by former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in his June 2011 farewell speech in Brussels. That outcome is not preordained. It can be avoided if individual allies recommit to the Alliance and take the necessary steps to reinforce, or 'anchor,' the NATO Alliance in the decade ahead.
- Topic:
- NATO, Globalization, International Cooperation, and International Security
500. Achieving International Cyber Stability
- Author:
- Franklin D. Kramer
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The most disruptive potential cyber security concern is the capacity of information technology to generate or escalate geopolitical conflicts into open or uncontained hostilities through attacks on operational networks. Undermining critical capabilities such as the military or the electric power grid would be highly destabilizing and potentially escalatory, generating a perceived need to move a confrontation toward conflict or to escalate a contained conflict into a broader arena.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Law, Science and Technology, and International Security