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421. Rising powers in Africa: what does this mean for the African peace and security agenda?

Author:
Elling N. Tjønneland
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Much has been written about the role of the rising or emerging powers and their accelerating economic engagement in Africa. Much less is known about how they contribute to or impact on the African peace and security agenda. This report takes a comparative look at the roles of China, India, Brazil and South African in relation to the African Union and its African Peace and Security Architecture. Each of these four countries has a distinct commercial and corporate approach to Africa, despite a shared political commitment to South-South cooperation. However, as they extend their economic engagement they are becoming more sensitive to insecurity and volatility. The Asian and Latin American countries, which traditionally have strongly emphasised non-intervention, are gradually becoming more involved in the African security agenda. They are increasingly concerned about their image and reputation and the security of their citizens and business interests, and are becoming more prepared to act multilaterally and to work with others in facilitating security and stability. As an African power, South Africa plays a more direct role and has emerged as a major architect of the continent's evolving peace and security architecture. This report summarises elements from a broader research project on rising powers and the African peace and security agenda undertaken by CMI in cooperation with NOREF.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and International Security
Political Geography:
Africa, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and Latin America

422. Afghanistan's Insurgency after the Transition

Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The war in Afghanistan entered a new phase in 2013. It now is increasingly a contest between the insurgents and the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Many within and outside the government are more optimistic about stability in the wake of a relatively successful first round of presidential elections on 5 April 2014. However, any euphoria should be tempered by a realistic assessment of the security challenges that President Karzai's successor will face in the transitional period of 2014-2015. Kabul may find these challenges difficult to overcome without significant and sustained international security, political and economic support.
Topic:
International Security, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

423. Bringing Clausewitzian clarity to cyberspace: The cyberwar mirage and the utility of cyberattacks in war

Author:
Jeppe Teglskov Jacobsen
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Cyberwar is everywhere - in the media, in the military, among politicians and in academia. It is the new weapon of mass discussion. But there is no such thing as cyberwar. This observation, however, does not render cyberattacks unimportant. The article revisits the debate on Carl von Clausewitz's On War (1832), and examines the utility of cyberattacks as a tool in future war. In doing so, the article not only targets the misunderstandings and exaggerations prevalent in the literature, but demonstrates that Clausewitz's On War, albeit being two centuries old, is a valuable analytical lens in making sense of the relationship between cyber attacks and war. Drawing on the Clauzewitzian trinity, the article finds that cyber attacks can be useful tools in warfare, particularly in the initial stages of war. They are easily deployable and have already proven capable of causing physical damage. However, the article argues that cyber attacks remain inferior to conventional military weaponry, ultimately rendering cyberwar — understood as a war fought primarily through cyberspace — unlikely.
Topic:
International Law, Science and Technology, and International Security
Political Geography:
America

424. Clear-Eyed Diplomacy: Strategic Shifts Needed in the Iran Negotiations

Author:
Michael Singh
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
If Washington is to secure an Iranian nuclear deal that is sustainable and advances American interests, it must make several adjustments to its diplomatic strategy. The Iran nuclear talks are set to resume in Vienna today, with the aim of reaching a long-term agreement to succeed the first-step "Joint Plan of Action" (JPOA). Negotiating an agreement that advances U.S. interests will require the Obama administration to deemphasize political battles in Washington and focus on the larger issues at stake, such as Iran's regional activities and the ultimate fate of the nuclear program. It should also endeavor to transform its fractious array of domestic and international allies from a weakness into a strength. Despite their tactical differences, these allies share an interest in preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, as well as avoiding a military conflict and promoting regional stability and global nonproliferation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
America, Iran, and Washington

425. Ayatollah Khamenei: Pessimistic Negotiator, Optimistic Strategist

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Despite offering nominal support for Iran's nuclear negotiating team, Khamenei and his circle continue to criticize the talks and could sabotage them outright if internal dynamics go against President Rouhani.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, Power Politics, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran

426. Iranian Suspicions About the IAEA

Author:
Steven Ditto
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iranian elites continue to express skepticism about the International Atomic Energy Agency's verification measures, nuclear safeguards agreements, and impartiality, with some even accusing it of collusion with foreign intelligence agencies.
Topic:
International Organization, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran

427. Israel vs. al-Qaeda: Emerging Challenges on Two Fronts

Author:
Ehud Yaari and Michael Morell
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A CIA veteran and an Israeli security expert discuss the growing presence of al-Qaeda affiliates in Sinai and Syria.
Topic:
Terrorism, International Security, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

428. Revisiting Chicago: The Critical Need To Maintain Support For Afghanistan's National Security Forces Post-2014

Author:
William A. Byrd
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Two years ago, the Chicago international summit agreed on long-term targets for the size of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and committed to continued international financial support until 2024. Since then, the ANSF have taken over lead responsibility for Afghanistan's security and have by most accounts performed well, taking substantial casualties but holding their own against the Taliban. However, the ANSF still rely heavily on U.S. financial and logistical support and military "enablers" in such roles as air support, medevac and reconnaissance. The Afghan government's failure to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the United States during the past eight months has coincided with, and undoubtedly contributed to, declining political support for the international engagement in Afghanistan. Not only has U.S. civilian aid in the current fiscal year been halved, but the White House recently announced a complete U.S. troop pull-out by the end of 2016, except for "normal levels" to protect the U.S. Embassy and oversee military assistance. That is close to a "zero option," albeit in 2016 and not 2014. The announcement raises serious questions about the staying power of international security funding (which would amount to billions of dollars per year into the early 2020s if the Chicago commitments hold); management of security assistance; provision of logistical support and enablers; whether Afghanistan's domestic revenues will grow fast enough to meet its own ANSF funding commitments; and timing of any future ANSF reductions in relation to possible negotiations with the Taliban insurgency. The ANSF (especially the Afghan National Army, or ANA) was largely a creation of the United States, which has advocated for and endorsed its current size and cost. It would be irresponsible to create such a force and then turn around and undermine it.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Terrorism, International Security, Military Strategy, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Chicago

429. Time to Worry about China's Military Rise

Author:
Evan Braden Montgomery
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
What are the potential consequences of China's military modernization? This question is at the heart of recent debates over the durability of U.S. primacy, whether or not the United States can sustain its grand strategy of global engagement, and how it should adapt its armed forces. During the past two decades, China has been increasing its defense spending, developing new war fighting strategies, and fielding advanced weapons systems. Yet many scholars and policymakers still believe that U.S. dominance will remain uncontested.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Security, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
North America

430. A Syrian Settlement Formula: Inter-Syrian Dialogue Supported by External Actors

Author:
Gennady Gatilov
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
On September 27, 2013, the security council of the United Nations unanimously adopted resolution 2118 in support of the decision of the organization for the Prohibition of chemical Weapons (oPcW) made on the same day in The Hague to place Syrian chemical weapons under international control and dismantle them. This was the culmination of the Ministerial Week at the 68th session of the un general assembly in New York, an event which was expected by all, but not all believed that it would happen. All, however, eventually acknowledged that it came about largely through to the efforts of Russian diplomats who, led by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, negotiated day after day with the U.S.. partners, seeking a solution which not only would avert the threat of a military strike against Syria, but would also open the way for politically resolving the most complicated crisis in the SAR.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
Political Geography:
Syria