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411. How South Korea Could Acquire and Deploy Nuclear Weapons

Author:
James Fergusson
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
Political leaders and defense planners in the Republic of Korea (ROK), or South Korea, are cognizant that worsening security in Northeast Asia could lead to additional states, including the ROK, to consider and even develop nuclear weapons. In particular, Korean President Park Geun-hye warned in May 2014 that another nuclear bomb test by North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK) would be “crossing a Rubicon” and would make it “difficult for us to prevent a nuclear domino from occurring in this area
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
South Korea

412. Next steps toward a final deal with Iran

Author:
Steven Blockmans and Luigi Scazzieri
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
On January 20th, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had been implementing its commitments as part of the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) agreed by the E3+3 in Geneva on November 24th of last year. In particular, the Agency confirmed that Iran had not installed new centrifuges, that it had stopped enriching uranium above 5%, that it had disabled connections between cascades being used to enrich up to 20%, and that it had begun the process of diluting half of its stockpile of 20%, while the other half is to be converted to oxide over the next six months. Over the next six months, the IAEA will continue to monitor Iranian enrichment, and activities at Arak, Fordow and Natanz. Immediately following the IAEA announcement, the US and EU suspended some of the sanctions currently imposed on Iran. Sanctions relief, quantified at $7 billion, comprises both the suspension of some sanctions and the repatriation of $4.2 billion of oil revenues in tranches.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran

413. Maritime Security in the Middle East and North Africa: A Strategic Assessment

Author:
Robert M. Shelala II
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The waterways of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) are among the most important in the world. They facilitate the export of large volumes of oil and natural gas from the region, while also bridging traders in the Eastern and Western worlds through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. While political tensions in the region have at times played out in these waterways since the mid-20th century, their vulnerability has been exasperated in recent years by the failure of bordering governments to promote internal stability, the lack of adequate maritime security capabilities of nearby states, and the potential naval threats posed by the government of Iran.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, International Security, Military Strategy, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and North Africa

414. Liberty, Equality, Connectivity

Author:
James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Europe and the United States have a collective interest in the promotion of a stable international order based on the rule of law, open and equitable arrangements for trade, and a commitment to democratic government and individual rights. These interests face renewed challenges in a complex global political environment.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and International Security
Political Geography:
Europe

415. Governing Uranium in the United States

Author:
Sharon Squassoni, Robert Kim, Stephanie Cooke, and Jacob Greenberg
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Proliferation Prevention Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) participated in a global project on uranium governance led by the Danish Institute for International Studies that looks at uranium accountability and control in 17 uranium- producing countries. The project seeks to identify governance gaps and provide policy recommendations for improving front- end transparency, security, and regulation. The impetus for the project is the concern that monitoring activities at the front end—uranium mining, milling, and conversion—could be strengthened.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States

416. Peace and Stability in the Post-Conflict Era

Author:
Douglas Farah, Robert D. Lamb, and Carl Meacham
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The project that culminated in this report was conceived just over a year ago as an initiative to assess the major accomplishments in strengthening the Colombian government's efforts to bring peace and stability to its countryside.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Terrorism, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:
South America

417. Cyber Threat and Response

Author:
James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Everyone knows that the Internet has changed how we interact, do business, and share information. The Internet can be an "innovation engine," but the same engine of innovation drives cyber threats to change faster than cyber defenses can react. Cyber threats are complex, dynamic, and network defenses have trouble keeping up with them.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, Science and Technology, and International Security
Political Geography:
Europe

418. Chinese Dream, Others' Nightmare? Despite superficial similarities, China is not destined to follow Russia's path to rogue-dom

Author:
Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Although China's statements about the Ukrainian crisis have been weighed very carefully, there are concerns that China is drawing lessons such as 'might is right' and 'geopolitics is all that matters' from the crisis. The hawks in China have adopted a similar tone to that of the Kremlin, with both wishing to see a relatively diminished Western influence in the international arena. The Chinese Dream is all about national rejuvenation, which entails redressing past grievances. Nevertheless, the Dream need not turn into a nightmare for other powers. The increase in China's military budget does not indicate growing ambitions of a global power projection. China's primary concern remains stability both within and without its borders.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Ukraine, and Asia

419. Brazil's rising profile in United Nations peacekeeping operations since the end of the cold war

Author:
Rita Santos and Teresa Almeida Cravo
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Brazil's engagement in United Nations (UN)-mandated peacekeeping operations dates from 1956. Since then the country has participated in 46 of 65 UN peacekeeping operations, deploying 11,669 personnel in total. Yet until 2004-05, with the UN's peacekeeping mission in Haiti, Brazilian contributions to such operations were mainly symbolic, military based and concentrated in Portuguese-speaking countries. Recent changes in the size, type and geographical distribution of Brazil's participation in peace operations echo the reorientation of the country's foreign policy in its search for a more globalised political influence, especially under Lula da Silva's presidency. In particular, peacekeeping under UN aegis has enabled Brazil to showcase its perceived added value in terms of its expertise on stabilisation, track record on development and conflict mediation, and advocacy for the Global South. Aspiring to become a world power, Brazil has assumed a role in peace and security that is more consistent with enhanced international responsibility. Yet, as this report highlights, this transformation has been characterised by dilemmas that are a product of the country's simultaneous legitimation and contestation of the international power structures in which it operates.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and United Nations

420. Brazil's growing relevance to peace and security in Africa

Author:
Adriana Erthal Abdenur and Danilo Marcondes de Souza Neto
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
There is growing interest in the role of rising powers in African politics and development, as South-South cooperation with Africa expands. Although recent research on this trend has examined Brazil's increasing economic and political relevance in Africa, relatively little has been written on the country's involvement in peace and security on the continent. This report helps to address this gap by focusing on Brazil's role in African security, especially over the past decade – a period that brought about a surge in Brazil-Africa ties and, simultaneously, the development of the African Peace and Security Architecture. We find that Brazil's involvement encompasses a wide range of state and non-state actors, and that it has been motivated not only by economic interests, but also by a greater prioritisation of Africa and the South Atlantic by Brazil's foreign and defence policies. Topics covered in the report include Brazil's role in peacekeeping and peacebuilding, arms exports, military cooperation, concerns with the spread of piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, positions on major crises, and institution-building efforts. These initiatives reflect not only Brazil's quest to become a global player, but also its efforts to redefine its strategic focus to encompass the South Atlantic.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Security, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Aid, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa, Brazil, and South America