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341. The Evolution of Bonding Technology, Creditor Committees and the IMF

Author:
James A. Haley
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper reviews a range of issues associated with proposals for creditor engagement clauses (CECs) in sovereign bond contracts. CECs have moved onto the international policy agenda in the wake of the recent introduction of model “second-generation” collective action clauses (CACs) designed to address problems highlighted by the protracted litigation between Argentina and its holdout creditors. Speci cally, the new CACs should limit the ability of holdout creditors to impede restructurings acceptable to a supermajority of creditors and address the problematic interpretation of pari passu language that has plagued the Argentina debt restructuring. However, the introduction of these clauses, building on the foundation laid a decade ago by Mexico’s innovation of rst-generation CACs, has led some observers to express concerns that the sovereign debt restructuring playing eld has become “tilted” to the bene t of sovereign borrowers. Recent contractual innovations should be balanced, these experts contend, with CECs requiring sovereign issuers to convene and negotiate with creditor committees.
Topic:
International Security and Digital Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

342. Patents and Internet Standards

Author:
Jorge L Contreras
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In recent years, high-pro le lawsuits involving standards- essential patents (SEPs) have made headlines in the United States, Europe and Asia, leading to a heated public debate regarding the role and impact of patents covering key interoperability standards. Enforcement agencies around the world have investigated and prosecuted alleged violations of competition law and private licensing commitments in connection with SEPs. Yet, while the debate has focused broadly on standardization and patents in the information and communications technology (ICT) sector, commentators have paid little attention to differences among technology layers within ICT. A review of case statistics shows that patent ling and assertion activity is substantially lower for Internet- related standards than for standards relating to telecommunications and other computing technologies. This paper analyzes historical and social factors that may have contributed to this divergence, focusing on the two principal Internet standards bodies: the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) and the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C). It offers a counternarrative to the dominant account portraying standards and SEPs as necessarily fraught with litigation and thereby in need of radical systemic change. Instead, it shows how standards policies that de-emphasize patent monetization have led to lower levels of disputes and litigation. It concludes by placing recent discussions of patenting and standards within the broader context of openness in network technologies and urges both industry participants and policy makers to look to the success of Internet standardization in a patent-light environment when considering the adoption of future rules and policies.
Topic:
Science and Technology, International Security, and Information Age
Political Geography:
Global Focus

343. The Relative Importance of Religion and Region in Explaining Differences in Political Economic and Social Attitudes in Iraq in 2014: Findings from the Arab Transformations Public Opinion Survey

Author:
Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:
Based on the Arab Transformations survey of Iraq in 2014, this paper examines the relative weight of religious identification and region of residence in several key areas, including main challenges perceived by the population, perceptions of security, of economic conditions, of governance, political mobilisation, corruption, and migration. Contrary to the perception that sectarian identity is the most important factor in understanding contemporary Iraqi politics, this analysis shows that religious identification is often a confounding variable, and that regional location better captures variations in respondents’ perceptions, including in key areas such as security, the economy, and migration.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

344. After the Arab Uprisings: Popular Expectations and the EU’s Response

Author:
Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:
The Arab Uprisings moved the EU to learn lessons from past mistakes and re-define its approach to development, democracy, and security. Reality, however, has fallen short of this aim. Analysis of the revised Neighbourhood Policy suggests it changed little, falling back on pre-Uprisings conceptions and discarding approaches which were more inclusive, organic, and better suited to long-term EU interests. Conversely, ArabTrans survey data shows MENA populations display precisely the more substantive and holistic approaches to democracy which EU policy discarded. It also shows supporters of the Uprisings were driven by dissatisfaction with the provision of satisfactory socioeconomic conditions and tackling corruption, and that their expectations of improvements remain largely frustrated. This mis-match between policy and popular expectations leaves existing difficulties unaddressed.
Topic:
International Security, International Affairs, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Middle East

345. Terror in Europe: Safeguarding U.S. Citizens at Home and Abroad

Author:
Juan Zarate
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Juan Zarate gives testimony to the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs in the wake of the Brussels attacks
Topic:
Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:
America

346. The Cyber Financial Wars on the Horizon

Author:
Juan Zarate
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Juan Zarate, with a foreword from Stewart Baker, looks forward to the future as cyberattacks and intrusions become increasingly common weapons in the ever-expanding toolkit of state and non-state actors.
Topic:
International Security and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

347. Carrier Air Wing and the Future of Naval Aviation

Author:
Seth Cropsey
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
America

348. Transnational Diffusion and Cooperation in the Middle East

Author:
Marc Lynch
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The Arab world never seemed more unified than during the incandescent days of the 2011 Arab uprisings. Tunisia’s revolution clearly and powerfully inspired Arabs everywhere to take to the streets. Egypt’s January 25 uprising that led to the removal of Hosni Mubarak taught Arab citizens and leaders alike that victory by protestors could succeed. The subsequent wave of protests involved remarkable synergies that could not plausibly be explained without reference to transnational diffusion. Bahrainis, Yemenis and Jordanians alike attempted to replicate the seizure and long-term encampments in Egypt’s Tahrir Square and protestors across the Arab world chanted the same slogans and waved the same signs.
Topic:
International Security and Political stability
Political Geography:
Middle East

349. ISIS forecast: Ramadan

Author:
Jessica Lewis McFate and Harleen Gambhir
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
The next forty-five days constitute a high-risk period for a surge of attacks by ISIS during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. ISIS traditionally uses Ramadan – which begins on June 6 and ends on July 5, 2016 - as a justification for its attacks and as an occasion to reorient its strategy. This year, ISIS will likely take action to reverse serious losses in Iraq and Syria while expanding its attacks against the non-Muslim world in an attempt to spark an apocalyptic total war. ISIS is still operationally capable in its core terrain and stands poised to expand its operations over the next six weeks, particularly in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. This forecast will outline the most likely and most dangerous targets that ISIS may seek to operate against during Ramadan
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Middle East

350. Syrian Armed Opposition Powerbrokers

Author:
Jennifer Cafarella and Genevieve Casagrande
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
International negotiations to reach a political settlement in Syria have resumed, although serious challenges remain to reaching a political settlement. The talks follow two weeks of a “cessation of hostilities” in which the Russian air campaign in Syria decreased notably, though it did not entirely cease. Putin announced that he would withdraw some airframes from Syria on March 15, incentivizing both Assad and the opposition to engage in Geneva. Major opposition demands such as the removal of Syrian President Bashar al Assad from office have not been met, however, and Syrian regime officials have not conceded that there should be an immediate release of political prisoners. Reaching a political deal in Geneva under these conditions will therefore be difficult. The conditions in which the Geneva negotiations are taking place still strongly favor the regime, indicating that a transitional government, if formed, likely will fail to reconcile most Sunni armed actors with the government. The result could actually increase the jihadist threat while miring the U.S. and regional states in political turmoil in Damascus.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Syria