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331. Europe’s new counter-terror wars

Author:
Anthony Dworkin
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In recent years, several EU member states have launched military operations against terrorist groups overseas, but have given little apparent thought to the risks that these operations involve. Military action is only likely to succeed against terrorist groups when it is matched by a political solution on the ground. Otherwise it will be ineffective in reducing the threat of terrorism and may even be counterproductive. European countries are at risk of setting damaging legal precedents for the expansive use of force if they do not articulate clearer standards for when attacking terrorists overseas is permissible, both outside and within armed conflict. There has been an unnoticed convergence in the military practice of European countries and the US. Both are conducting operations that mix attempts to recapture ground from armed groups with direct counter-terrorist strikes. Even though ISIS is now on the defensive, the threat of jihadist groups in regions surrounding Europe will persist. EU member states should develop tighter guidelines for deciding when military force should be used against them.
Topic:
International Security and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe

332. The good, the bad and the Gülenists

Author:
Asli Aydıntaşbaş
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
According to the Turkish government, the Gülenist movement is at the heart of the failed coup attempt of 15 July. Fethullah Gülen, the movement's leader is a former ally of the Turkish president and one of the country's most powerful and influential forces. With the help of the Turkish government, the Gülen movement successfully created a deep state within the Turkish bureaucracy and persecuted political enemies in show trials in 2008-2013. The movement is opaque and secretive in the state bureaucracy. There is enough evidence linking followers of Gülen to the coup but evidence pointing to Fethullah Gülen himself remains scant. Turkey’s extradition request for Fethullah Gülen will continue to create turbulence in Turkey’s relationship with Washington. For the US, this is a legal matter; for Ankara, a prerequisite for partnership. The Turkish government has embarked on a massive purge to "clean the state", involving tens of thousands of state employees, banks, and companies. In its quest to protect Turkish democracy by purging Gülenists, the Turkish government needs to make sure it does not destroy the frail democracy it is trying to save.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Turkey

333. Medium-Intensity Threats: The Case for Beefed-Up IDF Ground Forces

Author:
Eado Hecht and Eitan Shamir
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
Some pundits contend that in the absence of a direct threat from state armies, and in a situation where terror, guerrilla and rocket threats predominate, Israel no longer needs heavy maneuvering formations. This 50-page study by Dr. Eado Hecht and Dr. Eitan Shamir of the BESA Center argues the contrary. The rise in capabilities of non-state actors represents a new intermediate-level threat to Israel; creating several plausible threat scenarios that require large, highly-capable ground formations. The IDF’s recent force-buildup plan, which gives priority to the air force and to precision-fire assets over ground units, is mistaken.
Topic:
International Security and Non State Actors
Political Geography:
Israel

334. Implications of US Disengagement from the Middle East

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
The United States is retreating from the Middle East. The adverse implications of this policy shift are manifold, including: the acceleration of Tehran’s drive to regional hegemony, the palpable risk of regional nuclear proliferation following the JCPOA, the spread of jihadist Islam, and Russia’s growing penetration of the region. Manifest US weakness is also bound to have ripple effects far beyond the Middle East, as global players question the value of partnership with an irresolute Washington.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
America and Middle East

335. Trends in US Congressional Support for Israel

Author:
Amnon Cavari and Elan Nyer
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
American political leaders have supported the “special relationship” between the US and Israel since the earliest days of Israel’s existence. Support for Israel is invariably invoked during presidential campaigns and in party platforms. During their terms in office, US presidents regularly address issues relating to Israel and assert their commitment to Israel’s security.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
America and Israel

336. Indian Responses to Israel’s Gaza Operations

Author:
C S Samuel Rajiv
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
This study examines Indian governmental responses to the three major Israeli military interventions in the Gaza Strip over the past decade. It reviews the unprecedented parliamentary debate that took place in India during Operation Protective Edge, when the government sidestepped opposition demands for a resolution critical of Israel. It also assesses the Modi government’s intention to inject new dynamism into the India-Israel relationship.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
India and Israel

337. A New Helsinki Needed? What Security Model for Europe?

Author:
Stefan Meister
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The Germany-Poland-Russia Trialogue Workshop held at the DGAP in December 2015 focused on security. It brought together a group of Russian, Pol- ish, and German experts to discuss their respective national security discourses and the security situation in Europe more generally. The three short papers includ- ed here provide brief analyses of how the security situation is currently perceived in each of the three countries. From the German side, the answer was the refugee crisis. Polish experts pointed to the threat posed by Russia, while the Russian speakers described their worries about color revolutions and regime change in the post-Soviet sphere. Certainly, perceptions of security threats differ greatly among EU member states, to say nothing of the difference between Russia and the EU as a whole. Only real understanding of our counterparts can help in forging a new modus vivendi and overcoming the dangerous situation in which Europe currently nds itself. The Germany-Poland-Russia Trialogues aim to forge better understand- ing of “the other side” through presentations and opportunities for discussion, offering crucial rst steps toward overcoming misperceptions and stereotypes. The Trialogue meets regularly under the aegis of the DGAP (German Council on Foreign Relations), IMEMO (Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations Russian Academy of Sciences), and PISM (Polish Institute of International Affairs) and in cooperation with and nancial support from SDPZ (Foundation for Polish-German Cooperation) and the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s Warsaw office
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Europe

338. Failed Turkish Coup: Dynamics and Implications

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The military coup attempt that unfolded in Turkey on the night of 15 July 2016 was successfully put down by popular protests across the country responding to President Erdogan’s calls for citizens to stand for democracy. Despite this, the coup attempt will have domestic, regional and international implications. This policy brief is a preliminary analysis of the reasons the coup failed, the paths Turkish politics may take after this coup and the regional and international reactions to the coup.
Topic:
International Security and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey

339. Infrastructure, Attitude and Weather: Today's Threats to Supply Chain Security

Author:
Stephen Blank
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
The global economy can be viewed today as a myriad of border-crossing supply chain networks of production, supply, distribution and marketing systems. Given the enormous value embodied in these systems, and an environment increasingly characterized by uncertainty and vulnerability, it is not surprising that concern about supply chain security has intensified. Concern takes many forms. For example, how supply chains might be used as vehicles for criminal activity (smuggling, trafficking of narcotics and importing counterfeit goods) or acts of terrorism (radio-active materials, bombs, even nukes in containers). Technology-based threats to supply chains, such as cybercrimes, data breaches and IT failures, now appear more frequently in the literature on supply chain security. These threats could result in substantial disruption to supply chains and damage to companies and their customers. But larger storms are brewing, whose menace to supply chain security is greater still – and where actions to protect supply chains move more slowly. These include the continued deterioration of transportation infrastructure, a new posture on trade which views supply chains as threats to jobs and wages, and the impact of climate change. These threats do not lie off in the distant future; they are threats of today and tomorrow.
Topic:
International Political Economy, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

340. Responding to Security Challenges in East Asia: Three Perspectives

Author:
John Ravenhill
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper examines the security context of the Australia- Indonesia relationship. East Asia presents a fundamental paradox for scholars of international relations. It has arguably more sources of interstate tension than any other region of the developing world. However, it has experienced no signi cant interstate con ict since the end of the China-Vietnam war in 1979. After brie y reviewing the principal security challenges that East Asia faces, the paper then looks at the three categories of explanations for the long peace in the region: hegemony and balancing; institutions and elite socialization; and economic interdependence. By early 2016, East Asia appeared to be facing the most unsettled security environment it has experienced for four decades. The new sources of interstate tensions present challenges for the mechanisms that have previously maintained peace in the region. Washington’s “pivot” to Asia has brought the United States into a more direct policy of balancing against China than in the past — but its sustainability and medium-term consequences remain unclear. Meanwhile, regional institutions, despite growing in numbers, are seemingly incapable of effectively addressing the new security challenges. A need for better leadership and initiatives is evident, both within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and in the broader regional context. Finally, recent developments in the region and elsewhere have illustrated the challenges of using economic interdependence as a lever over unwelcome state behaviour.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Australia/Pacific