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581. Could the Trump Administration Mean a New Beginning for the Kurds?

Author:
Zachary Gallant
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The shift of United States (US) foreign policy from a heavy international focus with traditional alliances over the past century to the anti-globalist administration promised by President-elect Donald Trump will necessarily upset longstanding regional relations in the Middle East and North Africa. This Policy Paper discusses some of the Trump administration’s most likely foreign policy advisers and their positions on Kurdish self-governance, as well as those of some previous policymakers whose legacies he will be unable to escape.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
America and Middle East

582. Iran and its Opposition Kurdish Parties: The Need for Dialogue

Author:
Hawraman Ali
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Iran and its opposition Kurdish groups have been involved in intermittent armed conflict for decades. Considering the new political realities of the region and the domination of US politics by the Republicans after the recent election, Iran should engage in dialogue with its Kurdish opposition parties.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:
Iran and Kurdistan

583. A Transitioning Turkey: Out with the Old, in with the New?

Author:
Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Turkey is experiencing a crisis of orientation in its internal and external affairs as a result of a transition between a dying and an emerging vision. The end of the current transitional period will not necessarily mark the end of the country’s crisis, but most probably its entrenchment or deepening.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:
Turkey

584. The Future of Mosul: Before, During, and After the Liberation

Author:
Dylan O'Driscoll
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The post-conflict planning following the 2003 invasion of Iraq was weak at best and as a result many elements were at play that led to the marginalisation and political disenfranchisement of the Sunni community. Consequently, radical entities, such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS), exploited local dynamics to take up a position within society in the Sunni areas of Iraq. It is important that the current fight against IS in Iraq avoids this pattern at all costs; if the liberation is devoid of long-term planning it will likely result in the resurfacing of a number of issues responsible for the rise of IS in Iraq in the first place. Lessons must be learnt from the mistakes of post-Saddam planning and these must not be repeated post-IS. There needs to be a multifaceted approach to the preparation for the liberation of Mosul that goes well beyond the military dimension.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:
Middle East

585. State-building in a Fragmented Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Author:
Dlawer Ala’Aldeen
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The roadmap to independence starts from home and ends at home. A fragmented and unstable Kurdistan Region is neither good for the stability of the Kurdistan Region nor for Iraq or the rest of the Middle East. Institutionalisation of national unity and promotion of good governance are a key priority in every country of the Middle East, and even more so for an emerging one like the Kurdistan Region.
Topic:
International Relations and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Middle East

586. The Battle for Mosul; Pre and Post ‘Liberation’ Planning

Author:
Dylan O’Driscoll
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
There is the opportunity for the rebirth of Mosul and Nineveh, as well as for Iraq, but without a valid plan in place for the liberation of Mosul, that includes the formation of political agreements and huge post-conflict efforts of reconstruction, reconciliation and de-radicalisation, it will be a stillbirth rather than the beginning of a new and promising life.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

587. Averting an Economic Meltdown in the KRI: Aligning Political Objectives with Economic Necessities

Author:
Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
This report is a contribution to the public debate in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) about crucial aspects of the current economic crisis and the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) immediate response. In addition, it looks at the impact of four different policy options, such as a.) independence b.) rapprochement with Baghdad c.) macro-financing from International Stakeholders and d.) macro-financial assistance from Regional Stakeholders, may have in averting an economic meltdown in the short-term, on the assumption that the oil prices will remain suppressed for the foreseeable future. This report argues that it is only when the economic meltdown is averted in the short-term that the KRG will be able to proceed with deep structural reforms in the public sector and start working on the diversification of the economy.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Security
Political Geography:
Middle East

588. Time for a Radical Rethink. Full report on the MERI Economic Forum 2016

Author:
MERI
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The MERI Economic Forum 2016 is the first of its kind to be held in Iraq or the Kurdistan Region. Iraq and the KRI, at the time of the forum in April 2016, were in the midst of a severe financial and economic crisis and searching for ways to move away from the rentier-state economic model to restructure and grow the economy.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

589. Heavy Metal Diplomacy: Russia’s Political Use of its Military in Europe since 2014

Author:
Mark Galeotti
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Since 2014, Russia has mounted an extensive, aggressive, and multi-platform attempt to use its military and the threat of force as instruments of coercive diplomacy, intended to divide, distract, and deter Europe from challenging Russia’s activities in its immediate neighbourhood. The main elements are threats of potential military action, wargames which pointedly simulate such operations, the deployment of combat units in ways which also convey a political message, and intrusions close to and into European airspace, waters and even territory. The actual impact of these policies is varied, sometimes counter-productive, and they depend on coordination with other means of diplomacy and influence. But they have nonetheless contributed to a fragmentation of unity within both NATO and the European Union. ‘Heavy metal diplomacy’ is likely to continue for the immediate future. This requires a sharper sense on the part of the EU and its member states of what is a truly military move and what is political, a refusal to rise to the bait, and yet a display of convincing unity and cross-platform capacity when a response is required.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia

590. EU differentiation and the push for peace in Israel-Palestine

Author:
Hugh Lovatt
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The adoption and streamlining of differentiation measures represents a unique and effective European contribution towards Israeli-Palestinian peace at a time in which the Middle East Peace Process in its current configuration has failed. Differentiation disincentives Israel’s illegal acquisition of territory and re-affirms the territorial basis of a two-state solution. It also feeds an Israeli debate over national priorities by framing the negative consequences that Israel will face in its bilateral relations if it continues its annexation of Palestinian territory. Despite Israeli efforts to erode consensus within the EU, differentiation continues to receive broad support among member states. EU officials must allow the correct, full, and effective implementation of existing legislation and policy positions relating to Israeli settlements European entities engaging in financial activity with Israeli settlements – even indirectly – could face serious legal, financial and reputational risks. The EU and its member states should offer more advice on the consequences of doing business with settlement-related entities.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe and Israel