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2742. Serbia—Opposition Division
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Daily demonstrations calling for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to resign have, over recent weeks, been poorly attended. In part this reflects the opposition parties' failure to resolve their differences. This has led to growing scepticism in the West about the Serbian people's ability to bring about political change. In these circumstances, the international community may alter its policy towards the country. However, greater efforts to support the democratic opposition could prove counter-productive in the short-to-medium term due to anti-Western sentiment in the aftermath of the NATO air campaign. In the longer term the West will need to reconsider its policy towards the Balkans if it wants to play a constructive role in regional democratisation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, NATO, Democratization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Mongolia, Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Balkans
2743. United States—Iraq Policy
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- In the past nine months, the United States and the United Kingdom have pursued a low-intensity military campaign against Iraq. Such actions have been made easier by a lack of political scrutiny. However, the US administration in particular now faces mounting criticism from France, China and Russia, who favour a relaxation of policy, and domestic US interest groups favouring a more activist stance. Despite these pressures, US President Bill Clinton is unlikely to change policy significantly in his remaining 18 months of office.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and France
2744. Panama Canal Transition: The Final Implementation
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, Jr. Gillespie, Brandon Grove Jr., and David E. McGiffert
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The implications of the transfer of the Panama Canal go well beyond U.S. relations with Panama. This complex transition provides an important lesson for Latin America and the rest of the world on how countries of vastly different size and outlook can work together. The success of this 20 year process lies mainly in first identifying the primary common interest of the United States, Panama and the major canal users: access to an open, safe and efficient canal. Important but secondary concerns, including U.S. military access to facilities in Panama, were addressed during the process but never were allowed to displace the primary interest. By focusing on this clear, compelling key objective, both Panama and the United States were able to accommodate fundamental changes in the political, economic and security context, including several changes in administrations, tough negotiations and even a military confrontation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Latin America
2745. The Nonproliferation Regime under Siege
- Author:
- George Bunn
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation
- Abstract:
- The nuclear nonproliferation regime was challenged in 1998 by nuclear-weapon tests in India and Pakistan, by medium-range missile tests in those countries and in Iran and North Korea, by Iraq's defiance of UN Security Council resolutions requiring it to complete its disclosure of efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and by the combination of “loose nukes” and economic collapse in Russia. Additional threats to the regime's vitality came in 1999 from the erosion of American relations with both China and Russia that resulted from NATO's 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia—with additional harm to relations with China resulting from U.S. accusations of Chinese nuclear espionage and Taiwan's announcement that it was a state separate from China despite its earlier acceptance of a U.S.-Chinese “one China” agreement. Major threats to the regime also came from the continued stalemate on arms-control treaties in the Russian Duma and the U.S. Senate, from a change in U.S. policy to favor building a national defense against missile attack, and from a Russian decision to develop a new generation of small tactical nuclear weapons for defense against conventional attack.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, South Asia, Middle East, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Korea
2746. Technological Change in the Telecommunications Industry
- Author:
- Judith Mariscal
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- This document examines technological change in the telecommunications industry at the international level, from the perspective which sustains that this change as the driving force behind policy reform, based on the public interest theory of regulation, argues that the emergence and diffusion of new technologies has transformed the market structure in this sector ad as a consequence the nature of government policy. The dramatic technological innovation that this industry experienced transformed the once stable role of the state in telecommunications. Until recent years telecommunications policy amounted to a rather narrow one, that of determining fair rates of basic service provided by a regulated telephone monopoly. The resulting increases in productivity of these new technologies has led to a high segmentation of this industry; to a proliferation in the number and kinds of firms providing telecommunications services which in turn transformed the role of government in this industry. This document will provide an understanding of the traditional technologies available in telecommunications and explore the mergence of new technologies. The most significant result of innovation has been declining costs along with an increased capacity of equipment unites and reliability. Because of this rapid technological change, new firms have entered the market bringing differentiated and new products and services. The objective is to identify how technological innovation decreased costs and allowed the entry of new competitors. The policy consequences were to erode the natural monopoly standing of this industry, to make it more contestable and with this to transform its traditional regulatory structure. The first section of this document will examine the prevailing literature on regulation as sustained by the public interest theory of regulation. The following sections will describe the conventional technology employed in telecommunications, the technological innovations that have occurred as well as how these technologies have transformed this industry at a worldwide level.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
2747. The Election of Ishihara: A Symbol of Rising Nationalism in Japan?
- Author:
- Christopher P. Hood
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Ishihara Shintaro, known for his strong views particularly on Japan's relationship with the United States, became Governor of Tokyo on 11 April 1999. This paper considers the significance of his election, and whether it symbolizes a rise in nationalism in Japan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Israel, and Tokyo
2748. The International System of the 21st Century
- Author:
- Bertel Heurlin
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- In 1969, 30 years ago, a large portion of the earth's population had to revise their conception of the world. Pictures of Earth as seen from the moon taken by American astronauts made a considerable impression. The pictures portrayed a very beautiful planet - shining, inviting, sunny, fertile, full of life and beauty. This was Spaceship Earth, a spaceship apparently characterised more by nature than by culture. The spaceship Earth appears hospitable and yet vulnerable. It faces space, communicating. It is a spaceship the population of which lives on the outside in stead of within.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
2749. Will the EU use Northern Dimension to solve its Kaliningrad dilemma?
- Author:
- Lyndelle Fairlie
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- A Northern Dimension for the European Union is now taking shape. Originally a Finnish initiative, it tries to take a regional view of the Baltic area which includes member states, EU applicants such as Poland and the Baltic states and Russia. The Northern Dimension specifically mentions the Russian oblast of Kaliningrad. There is very little time left to develop an Action Plan which the EU Council can adopt at the December Helsinki summit. This essay addresses the question of whether or not the EU will use Northern Dimension to solve its Kaliningrad dilemma.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Organization, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia
2750. Balances of Power versus Balancing: A Conceptual Analysis
- Author:
- Susan B. Martin
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics, University of Pennsylvania
- Abstract:
- This paper responds to recent criticisms of balance of power theory by arguing that those criticisms represent a misunderstanding of both the contributions and limitations of systemic balance of power theory. At the same time, it acknowledges that there are some problems with current work on balance of power, in particular with work that uses systemic balance of power theory as a basis for studies of state behavior. I argue that the problems with this current work are a result of the failure to make the adjustments required by the change in the level of analysis that occurs when one moves from systemic theory to the study of state behavior. In particular, there has been little analysis of what it means for a state to “balance.” To address this problem, I develop a definition of balancing behavior that is consistent with systemic balance of power theory, and then use that definition to develop a general model of balancing behavior. I then show how that general model can be used to integrate and evaluate different hypotheses concerning the balancing behavior of states. I conclude that both systemic balance of power theory and studies of the balancing behavior of states can contribute to our understanding of international politics, and therefore argue that we should resist the suggestion of critics that balance of power theory should be abandoned.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics