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2691. Report of the Conference on "Ukraine's European Choice and the Partnership with Poland and Italy"

Author:
Giovanni Gasparini
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), Italy's major international affairs think tank organised an international conference on “Ukraine's European Choice and the Partnership with Poland and Italy”, in cooperation with the Ukrainian and the Polish Embassies in Rome. The event took place in Rome on 22nd March 2000 and was supported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the NATO Office of Information and Press, the Office of the European Commission in Rome, and the Centre for European and International Studies and the Institute of International Relations, Kyiv.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Italy, and Rome

2692. The Paradox of Disconnected Coalitions

Author:
J. Steven Brams, A. Michael Jones, and Marc D. Kilgour
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
The paradox of disconnected coalitions is that "disconnected" coalitions can arise from the "connected" (i.e., single-peaked) preferences of as few as five or six players. Two models of coalition formation are analyzed in which the paradox can occur, in both of which players coalesce when they all find each other mutually acceptable: Fallback (FB): Players seek coalition partners by descending lower and lower in their preferences until a majority coalition emerges. Build-Up (BU): Same as FB, except that when nonmajority subcoalitions form, they fuse into composite players, and the descent restarts.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy

2693. Reassessing the Logic of Anarchy: Rationality versus Reflexivity

Author:
Ewan Harrison
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
Drawing on the insights of constructivism and recent attempts to develop a liberal model of international relations, this paper compares neorealism, institutionalism and liberalism in terms of their competing conceptualisations of the composition and dynamics of the international system. It argues that prominent institutionalists have mistakenly interpreted neorealism as a rationalist model of the international system in order to develop their own arguments countering its central propositions. Rather than relying on rational actor assumptions, neorealism instead adopts a reflexive logic focusing on processes of identity construction and socialisation arising from the generative consequences of international anarchy. Thus whilst neorealism and liberalism differ fundamentally in terms of their assessment of the nature and long term consequences of international anarchy, they may actually be closer to each other in terms of their conceptualisation of system composition and dynamics than neorealism and institutionalism. On the basis of this argument, the paper rejects a 'linear' understanding of the relationship between neorealism, institutionalism and liberalism in which institutionalism is seen as providing the point of synthesis on a spectrum than runs between neorealism and liberalism. Instead, it proposes a 'triangular' understanding of the relationship between these three models of the international system in which the debates between neorealists and institutionalists constitute its rationalist leg, and debates between neorealists and liberals constitute its reflexivist leg. Understood in these terms, liberalism's focus on the generative consequences of international anarchy and the overall trajectory of identity construction and socialisation within the international system is likely to be more productive in the search for a general synthesis of competing theories of international relations than institutionalists' attempts to refine rationalist models.
Topic:
International Relations

2694. The Global Trend of Civil Politics: The World Handbook IV Project

Author:
J. Craig Jenkins, Zeynep Benderlioglu, and Charles Lewis Taylor
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
Contemporary discussions of global civil politics provide wildly different pictures of contemporary trends. Some see the end of the Cold War as unleashing a series of ethnic wars, geno/politicides, state breakdowns, rising criminality and a gradual descent into civil chaos (Rosenau 1990; Crevald 1991; Kaplan 2000). Others proclaim an "end of history" with the spread of democracy, capitalism, social peace and growing civility (Fukuyama 1991). Paralleling the latter, some have advanced a “social movement society” thesis (Meyer and Tarrow 1998) arguing that the globalization of civil society has internationalized social movements and protest, creating new transnational social movements and the creation of a truly global civil society. In contrast, others see a narrowing of the civil order with new mini-nationalisms, spreading ethnic intolerance and the rise of new civilizational struggles (Huntington 1996).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Globalization, and Politics

2695. Prime Minister Barak's First Year: Diplomacy and Politics

Author:
Zalman Shoval
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Prime Minister Ehud Barak's tenure started out with almost everything going his way. He had what was often, though misleadingly, described as a "landslide victory" in the 1999 elections (though, in truth, Jewish voters gave him only a slim 3.2 percent majority over Netanyahu - compared to the almost 12 percent margin by which Netanyahu had defeated Peres in the previous elections). Nonetheless, it is true that Barak achieved better electoral results than most other prime ministers in Israeli history. As a result, no Israeli prime minister in recent memory had begun his term with a greater degree of goodwill from different segments of the population - including many who had voted for the other candidate.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Diplomacy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

2696. Patterns of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa—A simple test of the new trade theory with multinationals

Author:
Lars C. Svindal and Leo A. Grünfeld
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In this study, we present an empirical survey of the patterns of trade and FDI in Africa based on a sample of 28 countries and their transactions with the OECD countries. These patterns are used to test whether the predictions of the new trade theory with multinationals as described by Markusen and Venables (1995,1998) fit the development in Africa. The theory states that multinational production will gradually outgrow trade as countries converge in terms of income, yet our econometric study gives only week evidence supporting such a pattern. Alternative explanations are also investigated,and it is shown that trade barriers, geographical distance, income per capita and access to ocean explain much of the variation in trade and FDI in Africa.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa

2697. CIAO: Middle East — Arafat's Ambitions

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Israel this week launched missile attacks against Palestinian security targets in Gaza in retaliation for the bombing of a school bus carrying settlers. Tel Aviv and Washington have blamed Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat for the current crisis, saying he could reduce the violence. In fact, the uprising is a spontaneous revolt against the terms of the Oslo peace process. Far from being undermined by the crisis, Arafat is using it to maximise his political and diplomatic position in the event that negotiations resume. The crisis marks a decisive shift in the Palestinians' conditions for peace with Israel.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2698. CIAO: US/China — Trade Relations

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
US Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky and China's Prime Minister Zhu Rongji this month held talks in Beijing to discuss China's accession to the WTO. Beyond opening up commercial opportunities to US firms, the award of permanent normal trade relations status to China, and its prospective accession to the WTO, should in theory add predictability to the bilateral trade relationship.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Beijing

2699. United States -- Elian Endgame?

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Attorney General Janet Reno yesterday ordered the Miami-based extended family of Elian Gonzalez to hand him over to his Cuban father. Reno's actions are expected to bring an end to the custody drama surrounding Elian, who was brought to the United States after coastguards found him floating in the Atlantic Ocean after a failed attempt to escape from Cuba with his mother. Although superficially a dispute between the United States and Cuba, argument about the case has centred upon the demands of the Cuban-American community in Florida, a section of the electorate of sufficient importance to oblige Vice-President Al Gore to make his most public break with the administration in which he serves.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, and Cuba

2700. Defense Monitor: NMD Update: The Real World Intrudes

Author:
Colonel Daniel Smith
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
IN AN EARLIER DEFENSE MONITOR(Volume XXIX, Issue 1, 2000), we reported on the status of the National Missile Defense program (NMD). At that time the success rate of NMD was 50%, although even the October 2, 1999 success was qualified because the kill vehicle first homed on the single decoy until, at the last moment, it finally detected its true target nearby.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics