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2461. China Brief, Xu Wenli, into American exile

Author:
Robyn Lim, Willy Lam, Jonathan Mirsky, and Thomas Woodrow
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On Christmas Eve the Chinese government released Xu Wenli, the founder of the country's tiny Democratic Party, into American exile. Xu has spent sixteen of the last twenty-one years behind bars. The most interesting comments on this event came from John Kamm, who for years has had no equal for occasionally persuading the Chinese government to free its political “enemies”.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, America, and Israel

2462. Democratic Control of Security and Intelligence Services: A Legal Framework

Author:
Ian Leigh
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
This paper is a contribution to a continuing project of the Geneva Centre for Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF): to provide a map or 'matrix' of legal norms to govern security sector reform. Previous contributions have addressed civil-military relations and work remains to be done on policing. The focus here is on the implications of this approach for the norms governing security and intelligence agencies.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Geneva

2463. Control and Oversight of Security Intelligence in Romania

Author:
Larry Watts
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
According to March 2002 poll, 60% of the Romanian population believe that their intelligence services – in particular the SRI (Serviciul roman de informatii – domestic security intelligence) and the SIE (Serviciul de informatii externe – foreign intelligence) – have been “transformed into democratic institutions on the western model.” 52% believe that the services are serving national interests in a politically-neutral fashion as opposed to partisan aims of the sitting government (32%), and 55% had a generally “good opinion” concerning their performance. 73% of the population believes that the services do not have too much power, and half of those believe they have too little power, while 74% believe that intelligence specialists remaining from before 1989 – about 15% of the SRI and 18% of the SIE – should be retained. Periodic polling by other agencies regularly rank the SRI just behind the church and the army, and ahead of the government and police, in terms of public trust.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Government
Political Geography:
Romania

2464. Democratic and Parliamentary Accountability of Intelligence Services after September 11th.

Author:
Peter Gill
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
In the past thirty years throughout Europe, the Americas and more sporadically elsewhere the issue of how to institute some democratic control over security intelligence agencies has steadily permeated the political agenda. There have been two main reasons for this change. In what might be described as the 'old' democracies (North America, Western Europe, Australia and New Zealand) the main impetus for change was scandal involving abuses of power and rights by the agencies. Typically, these gave rise to legislative or judicial enquiries that resulted in new legal and oversight structures for the agencies, some of these achieved by statutes, others by executive orders. The best known examples of these are the U.S. congressional enquiries during 1975-76 (chaired by Senator Church and Representative Pike), Justice McDonald's enquiry into the RCMP Security Service in Canada (1977-81) and Justice Hope's into the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Australia, North America, New Zealand, and Western Europe

2465. Toward a More Secure America: Grounding U.S. Policies in Global Realities

Author:
David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, and Linda M. Gerber
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
This policy brief grew out of discussions with a team of former national security and foreign policy officials held at the Washington office of the Fourth Freedom Forum in the summer of 2003. The brief was written by the staff of the Fourth Freedom Forum and the Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame, who are solely responsible for the report's specific content. The authors incorporated numerous comments and suggestions from the policy advisers. The policy advisers listed below endorse the general thrust of this report and generally agree with the findings presented. Each participant may not, however, be in full agreement with every specific point and detail. The policy advisers listed extend their endorsement as individuals, not as representatives of any organization.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Peace Studies, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Washington

2466. Unproven: The Controversy over Justifying War in Iraq

Author:
David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, and Linda M. Gerber
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
The failure of U.S. and British forces in Iraq to find evidence of weapons of mass destruction has sparked controversy on both sides of the Atlantic and in the wider international community. Two contending explanations have been offered for why the Bush administration made apparently questionable claims about weapons of mass destruction. The first alleges an intelligence failure. The best analysts in the CIA simply had no foolproof way of discerning what Saddam had. They gave the administration a wide-ranging set of estimates, from benign to worst-case, and, given the way bureaucracies behave, the president's advisors adopted the worse case scenario. The second claim, more odious in form and substance, is that the administration inflated and manipulated uncertain data, possibly even requesting that material sent to it be redone to fit preconceived notions. The Bush administration has gone to great pains to reassert that it stands by its previous pronouncements that prohibited weapons will be located in due time.
Topic:
International Relations, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

2467. NATO Nuclear Non-proliferation Policies in a Changing Threat Environment

Author:
Alistair Millar and Morten Bremer Maerli
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
This report summarises the conference “NATO Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policies in a Changing Threat Environment” convened in, Oslo, 12 May 2003. The conference was co-organised by the Fourth Freedom Forum, the Norwegian Atlantic Committee, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. It was co-sponsored by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Norwegian Ministry of Defence and the Ploughshares Foundation.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Climate Change, Government, and Nuclear Weapons

2468. Political Disaffection and Democratization: History in New Democracies

Author:
Mariano Torcal
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper focuses on the analysis of political disaffection. After discussing and defining this notion, the article shows that disaffection affects more widely, though not exclusively, third-wave democracies. The close link between levels of disaffection and the history of democratization in each country explains its higher incidence among new democracies. For this very reason, political disaffection could also run high among more established democracies. However, regardless of its incidence in each particular country, political disaffection reveals a distinctive nature in new democracies because of the absence of a democratic past in many of these cases. Thus, disaffection constitutes a key element to explain the lower propensity of citizens of new democracies to participate in every dimension of political activity.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, International Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

2469. Informal Institutions and Comparative Politics: A Research Agenda

Author:
Gretchen Helmke and Steven Levitsky
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
During the 1990s, comparative research on political institutions focused primarily on formal rules. Yet recent studies suggest that an exclusive focus on formal rules is often insufficient, and that informal institutions, ranging from bureaucratic and legislative norms to clientelism and patrimonialism, often have a profound—and systematic—effect on political outcomes. Neglecting these informal institutions thus risks missing many of the “real” incentives and constraints that underlie political behavior. This article seeks to move informal institutions from the margins to the mainstream of comparative politics research. It develops an initial framework for studying informal institutions and, importantly, integrating them into comparative institutional analysis. In the conceptual realm, the article attempts to clarify what is meant by “informal institution” and then develops a typology of four patterns of formal-informal institutional interaction: complementary, accommodating, competing, and substitutive. In the theoretical realm, the article examines two issues that have been largely unexplored in the literature on informal institutions: the question of why and how informal institutions emerge, and the sources of informal institutions stability and change. A final section explores some of the practical challenges inherent in research on informal institutions, including issues of identification, measurement, and comparison.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, International Political Economy, and Politics

2470. Are We Taking China's Future for Granted?

Author:
Joseph C. Folio
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
During Fall 2003 the Schlesinger Working Group held two meetings (September 25th and November 3rd) to explore China's estimated political/ economic outlook and to determine what potential challenges might affect its projected future. The purpose of these meetings was not to predict a Chinese stumble or even collapse, but rather to examine events that could trigger a disruption of China's current, impressively successful economic trajectory, and to analyze what form that disruption could take. During the first meeting, participants identified potential disruption scenarios to which China remains vulnerable. The second meeting considered the implications of disruption for both China and the United States, and how these scenarios might affect U.S. policy. Working Group members did not attempt to assign probabilities for the identified potential disruptions or “failures.” Rather, they focused on the hurdles or challenges posed by these disruption scenarios, which the Chinese leadership would need to confront successfully in order to avoid losing control or endangering national cohesion. Participants generally agreed that any major disruption would most likely derive from an external shock that might negatively affect China's economic situation and possibly ignite collateral internal disruption via domestic unrest or leadership division. The group concurred that the Chinese leadership has sufficient strength and cohesion to manage most forms of internal disruption, or at least to adapt quickly and effectively to those that arise.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and China