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2222. An American Grand Strategy for the Middle East: A Report of the Aspen Strategy Group
- Author:
- Kurt M. Campbell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Former Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara was fond of saying that the Middle East was the graveyard of American diplomatic hopes and dreams, and this is a man who knows something about disappointment in global politics (as well as cemeteries). Now, the United States has embarked upon an ambitious mission to remake the Middle East – rebuilding war-ravaged and leader-abused countries in Afghanistan and Iraq, seeking to settle the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, blocking further nuclear proliferation, pushing the region to embrace political moderation and reform, and hopefully improving America's image in the region in the process. There are unintentional though unavoidable echoes of the “best and the brightest” in this campaign as the U.S. embarks upon a global crusade (call it what it is) to help re-direct the course of one of the world's dominant civilizations and the institutions that have served it so poorly. This uniquely American sense of mission and manifest destiny is apparent in a range of endeavors worldwide but it is in the Middle East where U.S. ambitions approach the point of audacity.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Middle East
2223. Renewing the Atlantic Partnership
- Author:
- Lawrence H. Summers, Henry A. Kissinger, and Charles A. Kupchan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The accomplishments of the Atlantic alliance are remarkable. History records few, if any, alliances that have yielded so many benefits for their members or for the broader international community. After centuries of recurrent conflict, war among the European great powers has become inconceivable. The Cold War has been won; the threat of nuclear war has receded. Freedom has prevailed against totalitarian ideologies. Trade, investment, and travel are more open today than ever before. Progress in raising living standards—in rich and poor countries alike—is unprecedented.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2224. Cash Flows and Discount Rates, Industry and Country Effects, and Co-Movement in Stock Returns
- Author:
- John Ammer and Jon Wongswan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the relative importance of global, country-specific, and industry-specific factors in both the cash flow and discount rate components of equity returns between 1995 and 2003. Our framework draws upon previously separate literatures on country versus industry effects and (forward-looking) cash flow versus discount rate components of equity return innovations. We apply the Campbell (1991) decomposition for industry-by-country, all-country, global industry, and world market index returns so we can produce a richer characterization of same-industry and same-country effects in stock returns. Unlike previous equity return decomposition papers, we exploit information in equity analysts' earnings forecasts when projecting future variables from our reduced-form equation systems. Our findings confirm previous research that finds patterns of correlation that suggest a richer underlying structure than just a single common global factor. Furthermore, our results suggest that global, within-country, and same-industry effects are all important for both of the two key components of stock returns: news about future dividends and news about future discount rates. In particular, within-industry covariation in news about future discount rates appears to be just as important as within-country covariation in news about future discount rates. We also find that the idiosyncratic component of cash flow news is more important than the global component, while the reverse is true for news about future discount rates. Our results are broadly consistent with co-movement in future discount rates arising from perceptions of common elements of risk, rather than national market segmentation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
2225. US-Mexico Border Control in a Changing Economic and Security Context
- Author:
- Peter Andreas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Although far from Washington and Mexico City, it is perhaps only a slight exaggeration to say that U.S.-Mexico relations begin and end at their shared 1,933-mile-long border. Indeed, the degree of harmony or conflict in the relationship increasingly depends on how the border and border control matters are politically managed. The border is both one of the busiest and one of the most heavily policed territorial lines in the world, where many of the most critical and sensitive issues in the bilateral relationship, such as trade, migration, and drug trafficking, come together. In fact, much of U.S. policy toward Mexico has been driven by the twin objectives of facilitating authorized border crossings and deterring unauthorized crossings. Balancing these tasks has always been politically and bureaucratically frustrating and cumbersome, but both the challenge and the stakes have grown substantially as counterterrorism has been added to and redefined the border control agenda since September 11, 2001.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, and Mexico
2226. Moving Toward Dialogue: Challenges in Canada - U.S. Energy Trade
- Author:
- Paul Ziff and Daniel Yergin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Moving Toward Dialogue: Challenges in Canada-U.S. Energy Trade is the second publication in our new One Issue,Two Voices series. Using expertise from both sides of the Canada–U.S. border, this series is our contribution to dialogue on policy issues relevant to the bilateral relationship. We look at energy in this paper, specifically the issue of infrastructure and cooperation in the delivery of energy resources across the 49th parallel. Our authors, Daniel Yergin and Michael Zenker of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (Cambridge and Washington) and Paul Ziff of Ziff Energy Group (Calgary) are wellknown experts on energy issues who have agreed to share their opinions on this important aspect of the energy trade.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Energy Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- North America
2227. Decision Time: Water Diversion Policy in the Great Lakes Basin
- Author:
- Ralph Pentland and Jim Olson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Decision Time:Water Diversion Policy in the Great Lakes is the first publication in our One Issue,Two Voices series. Using expertise from both sides of the Canada–U.S. border, this series is our contribution to dialogue on policy issues relevant to the bilateral relationship. In this first paper, the issue is “water,” specifically the developing policy on diversions from the Great Lakes. Our two authors are leading experts on the Great Lakes, who have willingly entered the debate to share their informed opinions.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- North America
2228. Collision Avoidance: U.S.-Russian Bilateral Relations and Former Soviet States
- Author:
- Eugene B. Rumer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The year 2003 was a difficult one in U.S.- Russian relations, and 2004 promises to be even more challenging. Disagreements between Washington and Moscow over Iraq were the most visible in a series of events that also included American concerns about Chechnya, the authoritarian tilt in Russian domestic politics, Russia's fading media freedom, selective prosecution of independent-minded businessmen, and meddling in the internal affairs of its neighbors. Together, these events add up to a trend that spells trouble for the ambitious U.S.-Russian strategic framework inaugurated by President George W. Bush and President Vladimir Putin in 2002. Yet rarely if ever has the need for greater cooperation between the two countries been more urgent than it will be in 2004 and the years to come.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Washington, Soviet Union, and Moscow
2229. China Brief, Energy Concerns and China's Unresolved Territorial Disputes
- Author:
- Matthew Oresman, Drew Thompson, John C.k. Daly, and Harvey Stockwin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- While much of the world is fixated on China's booming economic growth and its ravenous appetite for energy, untidy diplomatic loose ends in the form of territorial disputes with neighbors have many of the countries bordering the Asian giant nervous. Though Beijing's claims over Taiwan remain the focus of world attention, China is embroiled in unresolved territorial maritime and land issues with no less than thirteen of its neighbors. Given that China's military capability is growing apace with its economy, the potential for military conflict over the disputed regions is similarly on the rise. While China up to now has attempted to address these issues diplomatically, the fact that many of the unresolved border disputes involve potential energy reserves might prompt China to use military force to resolve issues of strategic economic interest.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia
2230. China Brief, Beijing's North Korean Gambit
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Lionel Martin, John Tkacik, and Toby Lincoln
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Beijing is flashing the North Korean (DPRK) card at a time when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership feels increasingly threatened by an anti-China “containment policy” that Washington is supposedly spearheading with the help of Japan, Taiwan and other Asian countries and regions.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Washington, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, Asia, and North Korea