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1921. Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area

Author:
Ville Kaitila
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This working paper analyses conditional convergence in Europe and also tries to assess the impact that arises from integration. Using a pooled mean-group estimation method, we first analyse the conditional convergence of GDP per labour force in the area covering the 15 member states of the European Union (EU-15) in 1960-2002. Conditional convergence is well-documented for the EU- 15. Higher investment, lower public consumption and lower inflation have contributed positively to GDP growth. Deeper European integration is shown to have accelerated growth when inflation is not included in the specification, but not otherwise. The evidence on the effect of integration on growth is therefore mixed. We then apply the same method to estimate the growth of GDP per labour force in the new EU member states – the eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) – for the period 1993-2002. These countries are shown to have converged conditionally towards the average level of GDP per labour force in the EU-15. Higher investment and lower public consumption have also supported growth in the CEECs.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Europe

1922. Scenarios for Modelling Trade Policy Effects on the Multifunctionality of European Agriculture

Author:
Jerzy Wilkin, Janet Dwyer, David Baldock, Hervé Guyomard, and Dorota Klepacka
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The ENARPRI partners agreed in February 2004 to prepare a precise specification for the scenarios that partners would attempt to model in their own national contexts, to examine the impacts of trade-related changes upon the multifunctionality of EU agriculture. This paper outlines a suite of five scenarios covering anticipated domestic (EU) policy under different possible outcomes from the Doha round, broadly based upon the status quo (with mid-term review), full decoupling of domestic support and full decoupling plus reductions in (decoupled) domestic support, with variants in relation to export subsidies and the scale of pillar 2 measures. In all cases it is recognised that national or sub-national models will require an additional level of national or regional specification before they can be run, and that each national team will be required to do this drawing upon their own domestic knowledge and discussion with relevant experts. Each of the models that will be used to undertake these analyses is then briefly reviewed to identify its general approach and the multifunctionality indicators that can be covered. These indicators are then set in the broader context that considers other potential indicators of multifunctionality and their rationales. The paper concludes with some additional commentary about the significant differences, and thus the difficulties, of attempting to undertake this exercise for any of the new member states.
Topic:
International Relations and Agriculture
Political Geography:
Europe

1923. What Prospects for the European Constitutional Treaty? - Monitoring the Ratification Debates

Author:
Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, and Justus Schönlau
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Following the success of the EPIN survey on the European elections 2004 (EPIN Working Paper No. 11), the authors decided to use a similar approach for monitoring the current ratification process of the European Constitutional Treaty. Accordingly, the findings presented in this paper are based on the results of a survey conducted among national experts associated with the European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN). As such, they are inherently subjective, but nevertheless wellinformed. The report draws on survey data collected in 20 EU member states, supplemented by additional sources of information on the remaining countries where available. While the actual outcomes may prove our findings wrong in one respect or another, they do indicate interesting developments and differences in the respective member states. The added value of this EPIN survey lies in its broad comparative scope and analysis rather than its offering an in-depth assessment of each national debate. (For the latter, special country reports are envisaged at a later point in time.) The EPIN Ratification Monitor project plans to publish regular updates on the rapidly changing situation.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

1924. Nontraditional Security Threats in the U.S.-Mexico Bilateral Relationship: Overview and Recommendations

Author:
John Bailey
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Before September 11, 2001, security—primarily, anti-drug trafficking efforts—ranked among the top two or three issues in Mexico-U.S. relations. Since that day, security has dominated the U.S. policy agenda in foreign affairs, including the bilateral agenda. Mexico, which had put more emphasis on migration reform, has accepted the new reality as defined by the United States. This background paper identifies some of the more pressing nontraditional security threats in the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship and suggests recommendations to address them. Inevitably somewhat U.S.-centric, my approach is to cover a good deal of ground in broad-brush strokes, providing only enough detail to buttress the main points and illustrate the recommendations.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico

1925. Challenges in Competitiveness: Infrastructure Development

Author:
Raul Rodriguez
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Cross-border cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico in infrastructure development has been the topic of a vast number of conferences, discussion groups and reports for quite some time. But actual cooperation pales in comparison to the dramatic strides achieved in economic and business links between both countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Poverty, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico

1926. No Illusions-Paradigm Shifting on Mexican Migration to the US in the Post- 9-11 World

Author:
T. Alexander Aleinikoff
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
The U.S.-Mexican immigration relationship has never been good. For most of their histories, the two countries have determined policy unilaterally despite a multitude of interconnections and a shared border of thousands of miles. The willful refusal to recognize common interests, the ability to pretend that sound policies can be crafted in isolation, is remarkable—and deeply counterproductive. Hopes for a “grand bargain” under the leadership of Presidents Fox and Bush faded quickly after the events of September 11, 2001. There may be a time in the future when such an agenda might be fruitfully pursued—and Andrés Rozental's pa per makes eminently sensible suggestions as to the elements that might constitute a grand bargain. But at the moment, at least on the U.S. side, policy development is viewed primarily—if not exclusively—as a matter of domestic politics and legislation. Interestingly, however, the debate on the American side may well play out in terms that are compatible with the elements of a “grand bargain.” I will argue that this result is due to shifting paradigms in the understanding of the U.S.-Mexican relationship: the Bush Administration's immigration proposals show movement away from a paradigm of control and toward one of a hemispheric labor market.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico

1927. A U.S.-Mexico Partnership in Energy- A Policy of Convenience

Author:
José Alberro
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Four years have come and gone in the Mexico-US relationship since the almost simultaneous inaugurations of Presidents Bush and Fox. The optimism bred by their first auspicious meetings has given way to aloofness and/or irritation in the post 9/11 era. Indeed, for some in the United States, Porfirio Díaz's dictum should be turned on its head to state “poor United States, so far away from God and so close to Mexico.” The fact remains that geography is destiny. Moreover, in the post-9/11, post-PRI environment, Mexico and the United States have complementary needs that could become the foundation of a policy of convenience and be the basis for a commitment to further strengthen their long- term economic ties.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico

1928. Renewing the U.S.-Canada Relationship

Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Relations between the United States and Canada have fallen into a noticeably cyclical pattern over the past half century or so. The American Assembly has been able during these years to turn its attention to the U.S.- Canada relationship precisely when it could do the most good. In 1964, when the first such Assembly gathered, sharp disagreements between Ottawa and Washington, primarily over defense and economic matters, ended the long, post-war “golden” period of amicable ties. In a similar vein, the 1984 Assembly met shortly after U.S. Secretary of State George P. Shultz had written President Ronald Reagan that something appeared to be “fundamentally wrong” between the United States and Canada.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
North America

1929. Private Security Companies: The Case for Regulation

Author:
Caroline Holmqvist
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
It was estimated in March 2003 that 15 000–20 000 private security contractors were working in Iraq, and the conflict there was referred to as 'the first privatised war'. Since then, both the number and the visibility of contract personnel in Iraq have increased, triggering a broad debate on the role of private companies which provide military and security services to states, corporations and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). However, the phenomenon is neither new nor exclusive to the Iraqi conflict. The past decade has seen the rise and consolidation of a global industry for private security provision, with over 100 companies operating in as many countries worldwide.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq

1930. U.S.-Australia Alliance Relations: An Australian View

Author:
Paul Dibb
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Australia is America's oldest friend and ally in the Asia-Pacific region. The two countries fought alongside each other in World War I, World War II, Korea, Vietnam, the 1991 Gulf War, and most recently in Afghanistan and Iraq. The closeness of the two nations today is without precedent in the history of the relationship. Australia is now America's second closest ally in the world, after the United Kingdom.
Topic:
International Relations and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, Vietnam, Australia/Pacific, and Korea