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261. Russia’s Energy Strategy

Author:
Tatiana Mitrova
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The fate of the “Russian Energy Strategy Up to 2035” paper—a key document defining the country`s strategic priorities in this critically important industry and submitted by Russia’s Energy Ministry every five years—illustrates well the contradictory predicament of Russia’s energy sector. In 2015, after two years of preparations, the latest version was submitted to the government, but national authorities have not approved it until now. Behind the scenes, many conflicting interests prevent the setting of a clear and coherent long-term vision.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia

262. Beyond Control: Iran and its Opponents Locked in a Lopsided Confrontation

Author:
Borzou Daragahi
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For much of its four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been blessed with a weak political opposition. While Iran has faced competent and powerful foreign enemies—such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the United States, and Israel—its Iranian political challengers, both domestically and abroad, have been largely fragmented, unrealistic in their aims, and sometimes as authoritarian as the regime. But, though few credible Iran watchers argue that opposition groups and figures arrayed against Tehran’s establishment pose a serious threat, Iran treats them as if they are mortal dangers to the regime. This paper attempts to sketch out the landscape of the various major political opposition groups, and begin to grapple with the question of why Iran perceives them as such a challenge
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

263. The Population of Russia, Today and Tomorrow

Author:
Gaiane Safarova
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Like every country, Russia has a very specific demographic footprint; its fertility, mortality, and migration rates, as well as its age composition, all affect its performance domestically and on the world stage. Russia’s current demographics were shaped by its history, particularly crises like World War II, and its future will be deeply affected by conditions like its dropping fertility rate and aging population
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia

264. The Melians’ Revenge: How Small, Frontline, European States Can Employ Emerging Technology to Defend Against Russia

Author:
T. X. Hammes
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Perhaps the most famous quote from Thucydides is “the strong do what they can, the weak suffer what they must.”1 For thousands of years, it has been accepted that the weak must comply or face the fate of the Melians. Today, the technology of the Fourth Industrial Revolution may be revising that truth. It is creating a wide range of small, smart, cheap weapons that can provide small states combat power previously reserved to major powers
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

265. European Energy Security and Transatlantic Cooperation: A Current Assessment

Author:
Richard L. Morningstar
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This brief emerged from discussions during an Atlantic Council Global Energy Center roundtable on European energy security held in Brussels on March 27, 2019, as well as other events and individual meetings with government officials, private sector executives, and leading academics in the global energy sector. The collective dialogues and key takeaways are reflected in this brief. Because the conversations took place under the Chatham House Rule, the information will not be attributed to any specific individual. The brief will provide a current assessment of EU energy security focusing on the role of gas markets, while future briefs in the European Energy Security series will take a closer look at other critical issues impacting European energy security. Following these briefs, a final report in 2020 will propose specific recommendations for the US and EU governments on how to address transatlantic energy security issues.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

266. Russia and Iran in Syria— a Random Partnership or an Enduring Alliance?

Author:
Michel Duclos
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Russia and Iran are allies in Syria not out of mutual sympathy, but for pragmatic reasons. According to many reports, Iranian leaders—notably including Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Al-Quds force of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC)—were instrumental in convincing Vladimir Putin to send his air force to Syria and save Bashar al-Assad’s skin in September 2015
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia and Iran

267. When the Friend of My Friends Is Not My Friend

Author:
Mark Katz
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
uring the Cold War, the Soviet Union posed a challenge to the United States throughout the entire world, including in the Middle East. Soviet activity in the Middle East, though, was also a challenge for many US allies in the region, and beyond. Soviet influence in the Middle East expanded during the 1950s and 1960s, in particular, as many in the Arab world became angry about US support for Israel, and as several pro-Western Arab governments were overthrown and replaced by anti-Western ones that actively sought Soviet support. Due to several factors, however, many of the gains made by the Soviets in the Middle East ended up being lost. These included: the defection of Gamal Abdel Nasser’s successor in Egypt, Anwar Sadat, from the Soviet to the US camp; Washington’s successful 1970s-era diplomacy in bringing about an Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement; genuine fear of the Soviet threat on the part of Saudi Arabia and other Arab monarchies; the 1979 Iranian Revolution, in which the downfall of a pro-Western regime did not lead to the rise of a pro-Soviet one, but to the rise of one that was both anti-American and anti-Soviet; and, finally, the collapse of both communism and the Soviet Union itself from 1989 to 1991
Topic:
International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

268. Beyond Control: Iran and its Opponents Locked in a Lopsided Confrontation

Author:
Borzou Daragahi
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For much of its four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been blessed with a weak political opposition. While Iran has faced competent and powerful foreign enemies—such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the United States, and Israel—its Iranian political challengers, both domestically and abroad, have been largely fragmented, unrealistic in their aims, and sometimes as authoritarian as the regime. But, though few credible Iran watchers argue that opposition groups and figures arrayed against Tehran’s establishment pose a serious threat, Iran treats them as if they are mortal dangers to the regime. This paper attempts to sketch out the landscape of the various major political opposition groups, and begin to grapple with the question of why Iran perceives them as such a challenge.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

269. Transatlantic Air Power and What to Do Now: Key to Deterrence, Key to Collective Defense

Author:
Frank Gorenc
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As the world enters an era of great-power competition, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faces a renewed challenge from an old adversary. A Europe whole, free, and at peace is now at risk as Russian aggression challenges the traditional rules-based world order. Russia’s activities in and against Ukraine and Georgia, rampant intrusion on Western democratic processes and political discourse, blatant assassination attempts on NATO soil, support for rogue regimes in Syria and Iran, and military deployments and force accumulation in Kaliningrad and Crimea, as well as in the Sea of Azov, demonstrate that the threat is as real and compelling as it ever was
Topic:
International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

270. Navigating the Energy Transition

Author:
David Koranyi
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As energy markets and technologies rapidly change, international oil companies (IOCs) are facing a set of interconnected challenges that will fundamentally affect their business models. From changes in the supply and demand picture, to shifts in how energy is produced and consumed, to public pressure to decrease greenhouse gas footprints, companies have a wide range of issues to consider as they decide how to prepare for an unpredictable future. In a new issue brief, “Navigating the Energy Transition: International Oil Company Diversification Strategies,” Global Energy Center Senior Fellow David Koranyi provides a macro picture of select IOC’s strategic (re)thinking and explores some of the strategies IOCs have undertaken to diversify their portfolios and prepare for the unfolding energy transition.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus