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391. Iran: What Does Ahmadi-Nejad's Victory Mean?

Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The surprise election of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, who is being sworn in as president this week, has given rise to dire predictions about Iran's domestic and foreign policies and relations with the U.S. and the European Union. There are reasons for concern. Based on his rhetoric, past performance, and the company he keeps, Ahmadi-Nejad appears a throwback to the revolution's early days: more ideological, less pragmatic, and anti- American. But for the West, and the U.S. in particular, to reach and act upon hasty conclusions would be wrong. Iran is governed by complex institutions and competing power centres that inherently favour continuity over change. More importantly , none of the fundamentals has changed: the regime is not about to collapse; it holds pivotal cards on Iraq and nuclear proliferation; and any chance of modifying its behaviour will come, if at all, through serious, coordinated EU and U.S. efforts to engage it.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

392. Swaziland: The Clock Is Ticking

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Swaziland has been an absolute monarchy for more than 30 years, with a royal leadership that ignores worsening social ills and a small elite that is often openly corrupt. A new constitution that further codifies broad royal powers and privileges is in the final stages of preparation. Political violence is still more talked about than actual but frustration is building. Multilateral African institutions, the EU and key countries like South Africa and the U.S. have been too willing to accept the royalists' line that any change must come very slowly. More pressure from the outside is needed to help pro-reform elements inside the country bring back a constitutional monarchy and genuine democracy that are the best guarantees Swazi instability will not eventually infect the region.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Africa, and Swaziland

393. Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of Services Offshoring

Author:
Lori G. Kletzer and J. Bradford Jensen
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
We develop a new empirical approach to identify tradable service activities. Contrary to conventional views of service activities as nontradable, we find a significant number of service industries and occupations that appear tradable and substantial employment in these tradable activities. Workers employed in tradable service activities differ from those employed in tradable manufacturing and nontradable services. Workers in tradable service activities have higher skill levels and are paid higher wages than manufacturing workers or workers in nontradable service activities. In general, we find little evidence that tradable service activities have lower employment growth than other service activities. However, evidence suggests lower employment growth at the lowest end of the skill distribution. There is also evidence of higher worker displacement rates in tradable services. Workers displaced from tradable service activities are different from displaced manufacturing workers: Displaced tradable service workers have higher skills and higher predisplacement earnings than displaced manufacturing workers.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance

394. US Trade Policy in 2005

Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Some time ago, Fred Bergsten and I were talking about the fact that, if trade liberalization is to move forward and retrogression is to be prevented, the focus of the policy community and the public on the benefits of trade-in the full sense, including imports-and on the issues around trade needs to increase. The adverse effects trade has on some people are very keenly felt and often lead to vociferous opposition, while the benefits of trade for a far greater number of people are diffuse and usually little if at all understood-for example, by consumers-and seldom generate political activity on behalf of trade.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

395. Afghan Update: Sept. 5 - Oct. 2, 2005

Author:
Joseph Button
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
U.S. led coalition forces killed 12 militants and arrested nine others in a raid in Zabul province on Sept. 5. Coalition forces did not suffer any casualties. U.S. military officials said the militants used their hideout location to stage attacks before the upcoming Sept. 18 elections. In a remote area of Kandahar province, U.S. and Afghan forces killed 13 Taliban fighters and captured more than a dozen more on Sept. 5. The U.S.-led assault targeted Taliban rebels suspected of the murder of Abduallah Kalid, a candidate for the upcoming elections.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban

396. Current List of Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Other Terrorist Organizations

Author:
Mark Burgess
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The U.S. State Department's list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) began in 1997 as a method of tracking down and striking back against specific terrorist groups around the world. FTOs are designated as such based on a demonstrated capability and/or willingness to engage in terrorist methods that threaten the U.S. national security interests. These methods include attacks on U.S. nationals, and American national defense, military, diplomatic, and economic interests. The FTO list provides the U.S. government with the legal authority to conduct prosecutions against U.S. citizens, or foreign nationals within the country, for aiding — financially, ideologically or logistically — any designated FTO. FTO designation can also mean certain members or representatives of the designated terror group can be denied entry to the United States through visa rejection or other means. The United States also maintains the authority to compel U.S. financial institutions to freeze any assets linked to an FTO and to report them to the U.S. Department of the Treasury pursuant to Executive Order 13244.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

397. Rediscovering the Underclass

Author:
Charles Murray
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Watching the courage of ordinary low-income people as they deal with the aftermath of Katrina and Rita, it is hard to decide which politicians are more contemptible—Democrats who are rediscovering poverty and blaming it on George W. Bush, or Republicans who are rediscovering poverty and claiming that the government can fix it. Both sides are unwilling to face reality: We have not rediscovered poverty, we have rediscovered the underclass. The underclass has been growing during all the years that people were ignoring it, including the Clinton years; and the pro- grams politicians tout as solutions are a mismatch for the people who constitute the problem. We have rediscovered the underclass. Newspapers and television understandably prefer to feature low-income people who are trying hard—the middle-aged man working two jobs, the mother worrying about how to get her children into school in a strange city. These people are rightly the objects of an outpouring of help from around the country, but their troubles are relatively easy to resolve. Tell the man where a job is, and he will take it. Tell the mother where a school is, and she will get her children into it. Other images show us the face of the hard problem: those of the looters and thugs, and those of inert women doing nothing to help themselves or their children. They are the underclass.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Human Welfare

398. Junk Science Reigns

Author:
John E. Calfee
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
If we know anything about the American tort liability system, we know that it works badly when it gets infected by junk science. The recent Vioxx verdict in Angleton, Texas, is a case in point. The jury awarded $253 million to the widow of a man who died after taking the now-infamous pain reliever. The award will almost certainly be reduced to something like $5 million or $10 million because it ignored statutory limits on punitive damages, and it may eventually get thrown out because of mistakes by the judge. But even at “only” $10 million a case, a string of adverse Vioxx decisions would prove an expensive example of the triumph of the junk lawsuit over science. Most press accounts portray the jury's decision as simply a reflection of medical science, which supposedly has indicted and convicted Vioxx of causing excess heart attacks. This view prevailed in the four months after September 30, 2004, when Merck voluntarily pulled Vioxx from the market. Those months saw vituperous debate and criticism of both Merck and the Food and Drug Administration in leading medical journals. A renegade FDA staffer testified at congressional hearings along with other critics.
Topic:
Development, Government, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
America

399. Small Leaps or Giant Leaps

Author:
Scott Gottlieb
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
There are seldom eureka moments in health care. Few new drugs or medical devices save scores of lives or cure diseases when they first hit the market. New technologies rarely translate into immediate life expectancy gains, and it is uncommon that results of a single study will transform how medicine is practiced. Medical progress is not magic, and sudden discoveries do not lead to dramatic cures, although a new book by Marcia Angell, a former editor of The New England Journal of Medicine, would lead you to think all of our gains in health have been achieved from just a handful of the most potent new medicines. Instead, medical breakthroughs unfold over time, and gains in life expectancy and health are realized only after a series of small technological advances are collected into new ways of practicing medicine or attacking a disease. The practice of medicine unfolds not in a series of certainties, but in a series of doubts.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
England

400. The Great Shift to Specialty Drugs

Author:
Scott Gottlieb
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
When drug maker GlaxoSmithKline held a showcase day for investors late last year, the company bragged about its burgeoning pipeline of new medicines, but also a fruitful restructuring it undertook a few years ago. Glaxo broke its sprawling research shop into smaller units focused on a dozen or so disease areas. In was an emphasis on major health problems, such as cancer, heart disease, and brain disorders like Alzheimer's dis- ease. Gone were the same concerted efforts to focus the majority of its research on more routine medical problems such as sniffles, sore muscles, and nicotine addiction. Like a lot of other drug makers, Glaxo is moving its research upstream into weighty maladies that have remained unsolved by modern medicine and away from primary-care problems.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Human Welfare