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961. High Times on the Silk Road: The Central Asian Paradox

Author:
David Lewis
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
World Policy Journal
Institution:
World Policy Institute
Abstract:
In medieval times, traders carried jewels, spices, perfumes, and fabulous fabrics along the legendary Silk Route through Central Asia. Today, the goods are just as valuable, but infinitely more dangerous. Weapons and equipment for American troops in Afghanistan travel from west to east, along the vital lifeline of the Northern Supply Route. In the other direction, an unadvertised, but no less deadly product travels along the same roads, generating billions of dollars in illicit profits. As much as 25 percent of Afghanistan's heroin production is exported through the former Soviet states of Central Asia, and the UN's drug experts express grave concerns. Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN's Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC), claims that the “Silk Route, turned into a heroin route, is carving out a path of death and violence through one of the world's most strategic, yet volatile regions.” A report from his office asserts that there is a “perfect storm spiraling into Central Asia” with drug trafficking funding terrorist groups and insurgency, fostering instability and conflict, and leaving a host of health problems behind. This should be a wake-up call to Central Asian governments. Yet, oddly, nobody seems to care very much.
Topic:
Crime and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, America, and Central Asia

962. Exit During Crisis: How Openness, Migration, and Economic Crisis Affect Democratization

Author:
Joseph Wright
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Does economic crisis lead to authoritarian regime breakdown and democratization? In this paper, I argue that the availability of exit options for citizens conditions the relationship between economic crisis and democratization. Where citizens have more viable exit alternatives, economic crisis causes citizens to exit rather than protest, making democratization less likely. I measure exit options in three ways: a geographic instrument for bilateral trade; neighboring country GDP per capita; and past net migration. I use time series, cross - section data on up to 122 authoritarian regimes in 114 countries from 1946 – 2002 to test this argument and find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that more attractive exit options insulate dictators from the liberalizing effects of economic crisis.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Government, Political Theory, Financial Crisis, and Authoritarianism

963. A Pillar's Progress: How Development's History Shapes U.S. Options in the Present

Author:
David Ekbladh
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Development is back. U.S. President Barack Obama has put it high on his strategic agenda. It is at the center of the State Department's much ballyhooed “Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review.” These aspirations come with real backing—Obama's fiscal year 2010 budget promises to double foreign aid to nearly $50 billion. Perhaps more importantly for supporters of development, across official Washington accord is growing that development must play a greater role not just in conflict zones but in general U.S. global strategy. It is not only the typical aid constituencies calling for greater attention. Even Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has urged a continuation of the emphasis on development that characterized policies of his last boss, former President George W. Bush. Almost assuredly, a pattern of bigger budgets, needed policy focus, and reform to the disjointed aid mechanisms within the U.S. government will emerge. Complementing (although not always supporting) this U.S. activity internationally is a collection of groups ranging from nongovernmental organizations (NGO)s to the United Nations (UN) and the World Bank. Overall, the place of aid U.S. foreign policy has not been so prominent or secure since the end of the Cold War. Development is once again, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton characterizes it, “a core pillar of American power.”
Topic:
Development, Government, Non-Governmental Organization, United Nations, Foreign Aid, and World Bank
Political Geography:
United States and Washington

964. The State in A Double Bind: Staying Wealthy in a Changing Global Economy

Author:
John Zysman and Dan Breznitz
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Can Wealthy Nations Stay Rich In A Rapidly Changing Global Economy? This was the question with which we began our inquiry several years ago. The policy objective for governments is classic and enduring: sustain the growth of employment and productivity to assure expanding real incomes of the citizens. Success requires that—under free and fair market conditions, the community (firms and populace) can produce goods and services that meet the test of international markets while simultaneously expanding the real income of its citizens. I But the strategies required to achieve the goals and the debates about those strategies have evolved in two different directions, seemingly proposing alternate and contradictory priorities on governments.
Topic:
Government and Markets

965. The Real Results of the Iraqi Election: By July 2010, in Early 2011, or Years Later?

Author:
Anthony H Cordesman
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
It may well be early 2011 before we know the actual results of the Iraqi election, and not because there were problems in the way the election was held, or in the counting of votes. Prime Minister Maliki is playing power politics with a relatively honest election, not protesting one with serious abuses. Elections, however, are ultimately about two things: Who gains power and who can govern.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

966. The Uncertain Politics behind Iraq's Election: Political Controversies and the Formation of a Viable Government

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Elena Derby
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Although Iraq has made political progress over the past few years it still falls far short of the level of political accommodation it needs to control its ethnic and sectarian divisions, ensure adequate representation for all ethno-religious groups, and create the conditions for effective governance. Despite the success of the national elections in March 2010, when over two thirds of the population defied threats of violence to cast their ballots—with a particularly strong turnout among Sunnis and Kurds—it is still unclear whether Iraq can form a stable ―national coalition government. If Iraq is successful, it will still take years for the new elected and appointed officials to develop the capacity they need to govern effectively.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

967. Saudi National Security and the Saudi-US Strategic Partnership: Part One: The Civil Economic Aspects of Security

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia posted its first budget deficit in 2009 in eight years as government revenues fell by over 54% to SAR505bn. Despite increased spending, the actual deficit of SAR45bn fell short of the budgeted SAR65bn, thanks to a rebound in crude oil prices. The average YTD OPEC basket oil price was significantly higher than the USD44 assumed in the 2009 budget. Driven by higher government spending, the Kingdom's economy expanded by a real 0.15% in 2009. In the face of a sharp oil sector contraction due to restricted quotas and lower prices, growth was largely driven by the non-oil sector which expanded by 3.0%. The government sector with 4.0% growth was a particularly important source of resilience while the private sector expanded by 2.5%. For 2010, the government projects revenues of SAR470bn, 14.6% higher than the SAR410bn budgeted in 2009. Spending is set to expand by 13.7% to SAR540bn from SAR475bn. The deficit is set to broadly match this year's figure at SAR70bn, or $18.7 billion) as the Arab world's largest economy focuses on development and job creation. The oil price remains the key risk for the Saudi economic outlook in 2010. OPEC now expects a 0.8% increase in total crude oil consumption to 84.93 mb/d in 2010.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
United States and Saudi Arabia

968. Fighting Corruption in Security Sector Reform

Author:
Robert Perito and Madeline Kristoff
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Corruption in the security sector damages society's trust in the government. Donors must coordinate on anti-corruption programs and make sure not to engage in corruption themselves. Corruption is highly political and context specific. Fighting both high and low-levels of corruption should be a priority in security sector reform.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Political Power Sharing

969. The Premiership

Author:
Sean Kane
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The institution of Iraq's prime minister has evolved since the previous national government was formed in 2006. The success of incumbent Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki in building an independent power base around the office and the diminishing U.S. presence in Iraq have transformed the perception and stature of Iraq's chief executive. This evolution of the position helps to explain why negotiations over the government's formation have struggled to move beyond the top post to discuss other assignments and the new government's agenda. The talks are not just about agreeing on a prime minister in the context of inconclusive, close election results, and competing regional influences; these talks are trying to define the role of the premiership and possible checks on its power. Understanding the debate on possible checks and balances is important because of its potential ramifications for Iraq's democratic experiment, and also because agreement on this issue might pave the way for the nomination of a prime minister.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

970. Israel and America's Flotilla Follies (and How To Avoid Them in the Future)

Author:
Craig Biddle
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Objective Standard
Institution:
The Objective Standard
Abstract:
On May 31, 2010, a flotilla of six ships manned by alleged "peace activists" motored toward Gaza, which, since 2007, has been controlled by the Iranian-sponsored terrorist group Hamas. But because Hamas openly seeks to destroy Israel and has already fired "more than 4,000 rockets and mortar shells [into the state] from Gaza," Israel has imposed a blockade on the region. The "peace activists" ostensibly sought to breach the blockade and reach Gaza to deliver "humanitarian aid." Their real goal, however, was revealed by their own words and actions.
Topic:
Government and Islam
Political Geography:
America, Iran, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza