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3152. Money, Politics, and the Post-War Business Cycle
- Author:
- Jon Faust and John S. Irons
- Publication Date:
- 11-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
3153. Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece
- Author:
- Neil R. Ericsson and Sunil Sharma
- Publication Date:
- 07-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper develops a constant, data-coherent, error correction model for broad money demand (M3) in Greece. This model contributes to a better understanding of the effects of monetary policy in Greece, and of the portfolio consequences of financial innovation in general. The broad monetary aggregate M3 was targeted until recently, and current monetary policy still uses such aggregates as guidelines, yet analysis of this aggregate has been dormant for over a decade.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3154. Clausewitzian Friction and Future War
- Author:
- Barry D. Watts
- Publication Date:
- 10-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, there has been growing discussion of the possibility that technological advances in the means of combat would produce ftmdamental changes in how future wars will be fought. A number of observers have suggested that the nature of war itself would be transformed. Some proponents of this view have gone so far as to predict that these changes would include great reductions in, if not the outright elimination of, the various impediments to timely and effective action in war for which the Prussian theorist and soldier Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) introduced the term "friction." Friction in war, of course, has a long historical lineage. It predates Clausewitz by centuries and has remained a stubbornly recurring factor in combat outcomes right down to the 1991 Gulf War. In looking to the future, a seminal question is whether Clausewitzian friction would succumb to the changes in leading-edge warfare that may lie ahead, or whether such impediments reflect more enduring aspects of war that technology can but marginally affect. It is this question that the present essay will examine.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, Government, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States, Soviet Union, and Southeast Asia
3155. Global Cooperation in Science, Engineering, and Medicine
- Author:
- Susan Raymond and Rodney Nichols
- Publication Date:
- 02-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- New York Academy of Sciences
- Abstract:
- Many experienced observers have noted a persistent fatigue in current systems of international cooperation on research in science, engineering, and medicine. The institutions designed to serve global science since the end of World War II are not keeping pace with the changes sweeping science and technology. In the mid–1990s, the unease and uncertainty has become acute. Yet, simultaneously, research and education in science, engineering, and medicine are themselves becoming increasingly international in scope. This trend is not created by formal collaborative institutions. Instead, the factors setting the global pace include the rise of high–capacity, rapid modes of electronic communications; the end of the Cold War and the defense–based motivations that drove much innovation; the expanding scientific capacity throughout the world; and the emergence of new scientific problems that are increasingly global in nature and widely acknowledged as common priorities among scientists and nations. The uncertain “fit” between traditional institutional arrangements and tomorrow's generation of scientific activities has engendered widespread concern. A central question is how best to re–tool existing mechanisms to serve most effectively international collaboration in addressing the societal goals and research frontiers of the 21st century. The prescription for possible therapies, however, must be accompanied by a clear understanding of the nature of the symptoms and a careful analysis of the current state of existing, collaborative mechanisms.
- Topic:
- Government, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- New York
3156. The Politics of Free Trade in the Western Hemisphere
- Author:
- Manuel Pastor and Carol Wise
- Publication Date:
- 08-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- Just as the 1980s now stand out as the decade of the debt crisis in Latin America, the 1990s have become the free trade decade. After a number of failed attempts at trade liberalization during the 1970s, many states in the region now have made dramatic progress in their efforts to reduce tariffs and eliminate quantitative restrictions (QRs) (see Table 1). The strongest evidence of this new openness is reflected in Mexico's 1994 entry into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States and Canada, the stated intention at the 1994 Summit of the Americas in Miami to develop a plan for the full expansion of hemispheric free trade, and the ongoing consolidation of such subregional trade pacts as South America's Southern Cone Common Market (MER - COSUR), including Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, Brazil, South America, Uruguay, Caribbean, North America, and Paraguay
3157. 1995-1996 State of World Conflict Report
- Author:
- Andrew Young
- Publication Date:
- 08-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- This year, the world celebrated the 100th anniversary of the modern Olympiad. Consider this vision of a world at peace: The opening ceremonies in Atlanta's Centennial Olympic Stadium, where more than 10,000 athletes from 197 countries gathered to demonstrate the highest ideals—teamwork, sportsmanship, and recognition of personal achievement. All invited countries participated, free of the ideological and political restraints that prevented many from attending in years past. For 16 days in July and August the world came together to honor those striving to surmount universal standards of excellence. Our hearts reached out to the hurdler who stumbled just before the finish line, the marathon runner who shook off fatigue, the Paralympian who rose above all expectations. We saw, for a brief moment, the potential all of us have to better ourselves and our world.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
3158. Military Doctrine and Political Participation: Toward a Sociology of Strategy
- Author:
- Yagil Levy
- Publication Date:
- 01-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Studies of Social Change
- Abstract:
- Wars produce contrasting effects on the state's status in the domestic arena: they bolster its internal control but, at the same time, create opportunities for collective action of which domestic groups can take advantage and weaken state autonomy. As the case of Israel suggests, within the confines of geo-political constraints, states modify their military doctrine to balance the two contradictory impacts. The main purpose of the paper is to lay the foundation for a Sociology of Strategy by drawing on the case of Israel.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
3159. Post-Communist Security Thinking in Russia: Changing Paradigms
- Author:
- Alexander A. Sergounin
- Publication Date:
- 07-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The end of the Cold War, the collapse of the USSR and its Marxist ideology, and the re-emergence of the Russian Federation as a separate, independent entity have compelled Russia to redefine its national interests and make major adjustments in the spheres of both foreign policy and international relations theory (IRT). These enormous tasks, together with an attendant polarisation of opinion on how to deal with them, have pitted Russia's policy makers and experts against one another in a fierce battle of world views. This debate is far from at an end. Neither a new security identity nor a coherent foreign policy strategy have yet been found.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Environment, Government, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
3160. Structural Liberalism:The Nature and Sources of Postwar Western Political Order
- Author:
- G. John Ikenberry and Daniel Deudney
- Publication Date:
- 05-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics, University of Pennsylvania
- Abstract:
- The end of the Cold War has triggered new debates about international relations theory. Most of the attention has been focused on explaining the end of the Cold War. Equally important, however, this epochal development raises new questions about the impact of forty years of East-West rivalry on the relations among the Western liberal democracies. This issue is not simply of passing historical interest because it bears on our expectations about the future trajectory of relations among the great powers in the West. Will the end of the Cold War lead to the decline of cooperative relations among the Western liberal democracies? Will major Western political institutions, such as NATO and the U.S.-Japanese alliance, fall apart? Will "semi-sovereign" Germany and Japan revert to traditional great power status? Will the United States return to its traditional isolationist posture? Our answers to these questions depend upon the sources of Western order: was the Cold War the primary cause of Western solidarity or does the West have a distinctive and robust political order that predated and paralleled the Cold War?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Europe, and Germany