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2092. Nepal's Maoists: Their Aims, Structure and Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In less than ten years, the Maoist insurgency has transformed Nepal. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has spread armed conflict across the country and reshaped its political environment irrevocably. But their political aims are still questioned, and not enough is known about their structure and strategy. This background report seeks to fill in many of the gaps, based on close study of their writings and actions and a wide range of interviews, in order to provide policymakers in Nepal and the international community with information and insights needed to approach a peace process realistically.
- Topic:
- Development and Government
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Nepal
2093. Reforming Egypt: In Search of a Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Egypt's first multi-candidate presidential election, a response to U.S. pressure, was a false start for reform. Formal pluralism has never seriously limited the dominance of President Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP); extension to the presidential level is a token so long as the opposition is too weak to produce plausible candidates. If the further reforms Mubarak has promised are to be meaningful, they should be aimed at recasting state/NDP relations and, above all, enhancing parliament's powers. As a start, Mubarak should ensure free and fair November legislative elections. The legal opposition must make the case for these changes and overcome its divisions if it is to become relevant and be able to compete with the Muslim Brothers for popular influence. The U.S. and others should support judicial supervision of elections, refrain from pressing for quick, cosmetic results, and back a longer-term, genuine reform process.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, North Africa, and Egypt
2094. Bridging Kosovo's Mitrovica Divide
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The international community has properly decreed that Kosovo's final status must not involve division of its territory. But this declaration has not been followed by sufficient action. Belgrade's policy of pursuing some form of partition is far advanced in the restive northern city of Mitrovica and its hinterland, and a major security, political and financial effort is required to save the situation. Capacity should be built immediately, and its implementation should begin once the Contact Group has declared its support for Kosovo's future as a functional, conditionally independent state within its present borders.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
2095. The Shiite Question in Saudi Arabia
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- From Saudi Arabia's establishment in 1932, its minority Shiite population has been subject to discrimination and sectarian incitement. Beginning in the early 1990s, with then Crown Prince Abdullah's active support, the government took steps to improve inter-sectarian relations. But the measures were modest, and tensions are rising. The war in Iraq has had a notable effect, strengthening Shiite aspirations and Sunni suspicions and generally deepening confessional divisions throughout the region. King Abdullah needs to act resolutely to improve the lot of the two-million strong Shiite community and rein in domestic expressions of anti-Shiite hostility.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
2096. Zimbabwe's Operation Murambatsvina: The Tipping Point?
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Operation Murambatsvina (Restore Order) cost some 700,000 Zimbabweans their homes or livelihoods or both and otherwise affected nearly a fifth of the troubled country's population. Its impact, as documented in a scathing UN report, has produced a political shock that has returned Zimbabwe to the international spotlight and made the quality of its governance almost impossible for its regional neighbours to ignore, however difficult they find it to be overtly critical. While an immediate requirement is to reverse as thoroughly as possible the disastrous humanitarian effect s of the operation, action is urgently needed to address Zimbabwe's larger governance problem. This will require effort s on three parallel tracks -- the maintenance of overt international pressure, support for building internal political capacity and, above all, active regional diplomacy to facilitate political transition.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
2097. Aceh: A New Chance for Peace
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 15 August the Indonesian Government and the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) are to sign a peace agreement that offers the best hope yet of ending a conflict that has cost over 9,000 lives since 1976. But no one should underestimate the difficulties of bringing an end to a 30-year-old conflict. Deep reservoirs of fear and distrust remain. The demobilisation and disarmament phases will be critical, and they are scheduled to begin in a month. Release of GAM prisoners will happen even sooner. In formation, communication, and planning are in very short supply. Among the most urgent tasks are: finding appropriate channels for the widest possible dissemination of information about the agreement in Indonesian and Acehnese, with an explanation of how it differs from the failed 2002 agreement; coordinating the different agencies working on amnesty, disarmament, reintegration, monitoring and funding; ensuring that government promises of land, jobs, or social security to various groups are quickly kept; and protecting vulnerable groups, including those who report violations of the agreement.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Australia/Pacific
2098. Garang's Death: Implications for Peace in Sudan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) leadership has acted quickly so far to regroup and reorganise, but the loss in a fatal helicopter crash on 30 July 2005 of John Garang, the only leader the movement has known in its 21 years, creates an opening for spoilers on all sides to exploit any signs of uncertainty. The country is at risk of eventually losing a peace agreement that was already looking somewhat shaky.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Welfare, and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
2099. Iran: What Does Ahmadi-Nejad's Victory Mean?
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The surprise election of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, who is being sworn in as president this week, has given rise to dire predictions about Iran's domestic and foreign policies and relations with the U.S. and the European Union. There are reasons for concern. Based on his rhetoric, past performance, and the company he keeps, Ahmadi-Nejad appears a throwback to the revolution's early days: more ideological, less pragmatic, and anti- American. But for the West, and the U.S. in particular, to reach and act upon hasty conclusions would be wrong. Iran is governed by complex institutions and competing power centres that inherently favour continuity over change. More importantly , none of the fundamentals has changed: the regime is not about to collapse; it holds pivotal cards on Iraq and nuclear proliferation; and any chance of modifying its behaviour will come, if at all, through serious, coordinated EU and U.S. efforts to engage it.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
2100. Can Haiti Hold Elections in 2005?
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Massive technical, political and security obstacles must be overcome very quickly or Haiti's elections -- municipal and local in October, parliamentary and presidential in November -- will have to be postponed. In particular the UN mission (MINUSTAH), other international actors and the transitional government need to move faster at registering voters, persuading the failed state's citizens that the exercise is meaningful, and disarming both urban gangs and former military. Otherwise, turnout is likely to be unsatisfactory, credibility of the outcome will suffer, and the government's legitimacy will be in question.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United Nations, Caribbean, and Haiti