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22. China’s Quest for Gas Supply Security: The Global Implications
- Author:
- Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The major transformations that are occurring on the Chinese gas market have profound repercussions on the global gas and LNG markets, especially on trade, investment and prices. In just two years, China has become the world’s first gas importer and is on track to become the largest importer of Liquefied natural gas (LNG). China alone explained 63% of the net global LNG demand growth in 2018 and now accounts for 17% of global LNG imports. The pace and scale of China’s LNG imports have reshaped the global LNG market. Over the past two years, fears of an LNG supply glut have largely been replaced by warnings that the lack of investments in new LNG capacity would lead to a supply shortage in the mid-2020s unless more LNG production project commitments are made soon. There is now a bullish outlook for future global LNG demand which has encouraged companies to sanction additional LNG projects, based on the anticipated supply shortage. China’s gas imports can be expected to continue to grow strongly, from 120 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2018 to up to 300 bcm by 2030.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, Global Focus, and United States of America
23. A New Cold War: Personal Reflections Regarding Russia’s Missed Opportunities with NATO, Ukraine and Its Western Neighbors
- Author:
- Keith C. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- President Boris Yeltsin’s imperial views on the “near abroad,” and President Vladimir Putin’s regarding Russia’s alleged “sphere of influence” has left Russia considerably weaker than it would have been otherwise, and the world much more endangered.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Cold War, Diplomacy, Economics, Politics, Armed Forces, Reform, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Soviet Union, Germany, Estonia, Latvia, United States of America, and Baltic States
24. Social consequences of the oil price shock in the resource rich post-soviet countries
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- This study seeks to determine the impact the fall in global oil prices post-2014 had on the welfare of the populations of three resource-rich post-Soviet states: Russia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan. Changes in welfare will be explored through the analysis of several socio-economic indicators affected by the local currencies’ devaluations. It will be suggested that the single-commodity export dependence of the countries concerned, and the domestic development of non-tradeable sectors faltered in the face of external shocks. Several policy suggestions are offered to mitigate the effects of the economic downturns observed.
- Topic:
- Oil, Gas, Exports, and Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan
25. Beyond Revenues: Measuring and Valuing Environmental and Social Impacts in Extractive Sector Governance
- Author:
- Nicola Woodroffe and Tim Grice
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- Oil, gas and mining projects can generate substantial revenues for host countries. At the same time, extractive activities generate a range of other positive and negative economic, environmental, social, political, institutional and cultural impacts. Host countries must weigh the economic benefits of extractive projects against their environmental and social impacts. However, environmental and social impacts are often assessed in separate processes and by separate institutions from those assessing financial revenues and the modeling, measuring and reporting of these impacts is rarely integrated with financial impacts.
- Topic:
- Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, Gas, and Mining
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
26. Assessing Tunisia’s Upstream Petroleum Fiscal Regime
- Author:
- Thomas Lassourd and Carole Nakhle
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- The authors of this paper examine Tunisia’s upstream petroleum fiscal regime, in consideration of the government’s stated policy priority of reversing a decade-long decline in reserves and production. Although the country’s “Jasmine Revolution” led to improved civic rights and the country is a strong regional performer on the Natural Resource Governance Institute’s (NRGI) Resource Governance Index, foreign investment has dropped since 2011, in part because of regulatory ambiguity and political instability. Tunisia’s proven oil and gas reserves are very small, especially by regional standards. With limited geological prospects, the existing context is not conducive to oil and gas investment, especially for exploration. Tunisia offers different contractual arrangements and fiscal regimes: a concession-based system, which often involves joint ventures between the state-owned company, ETAP, and international oil companies and production sharing contracts. This paper analyses the various arrangements and fiscal instruments, focusing primarily on production sharing contracts, which have become the dominant contractual forms for foreign investors and do not require any public (ETAP) capital investment. The government of Tunisia publicly discloses all contracts and concessions.
- Topic:
- Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
27. Mongolia's Missing Oil, Gas and Mining Contracts
- Author:
- Robert Pitman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- Many of the most important contracts for publicly owned oil, gas and minerals in Mongolia remain secret, despite government promises to make contracts public. A review of publicly available contracts in Mongolia suggests that contracts are unlikely to contain the kinds of information about a project that are commercially sensitive. Likewise, evidence suggests that there is no reason to think that confidentiality clauses prevent disclosure of contracts. Contracting regimes in Mongolia are complex and therefore in many instances, it will be necessary to publish several contracts and associated documents for each project. There are five steps that the government can take to make contracts public: 1) explain the contracting landscape, 2) define the scope of disclosure, 3) establish a contract disclosure rule, 4) make contracts accessible, and 5) support contract use.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Government, Oil, Gas, Journalism, Tax Systems, Mining, Private Sector, and Contracts
- Political Geography:
- Mongolia and Asia
28. Managing Expectations About Tanzania’s Uncertain Gas Revenues
- Author:
- Thomas Scurfield and David Mihalyi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- With negotiations between the Tanzanian government and a consortium of companies for a game-changing liquefied natural gas (LNG) project continuing, a decision on whether the project will proceed is still some years away. In this brief, the authors update a previous analysis of the possible outcomes for the LNG project and its potential impact on public financial management. This update accounts for new information and changes in company planning.
- Topic:
- Sovereign Wealth Funds, Gas, Legislation, Commodities, and Revenue Management
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Tanzania
29. How Tanzania Can Secure a Good Deal for its Offshore Gas
- Author:
- Thomas Scurfield and David Manley
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- The Tanzanian government and a consortium of companies are negotiating the regulatory terms for a game-changing liquefied natural gas (LNG) project. In this brief, the authors update a previous analysis of some of the key decisions that will be made in the negotiation and their potential impact on whether the LNG project proceeds and the levels of revenues that the project could generate for the government. This update accounts for new information and changes in company planning. There is a reasonable chance that foreign investment in the LNG project will not happen under current conditions. NRGI’s economic model and specific assumptions of the project suggest that a long-term LNG price of USD 11 per mmBtu is needed for investors to earn the return they usually require from LNG projects. Current forecasts by the IMF and World Bank are $7-8 per mmBtu. As the authors discuss in the brief, the chances of investment will shrink further if, during the negotiations, the government increases taxes and requires companies to share a greater portion of the gas with Tanzania’s home market. Government officials could wait and hope that conditions improve, and perhaps then impose stricter terms. However, this would delay the point at which the country would start generating benefits from the project. If officials want to accelerate development, without harming long-term gains for the country, they could: adopt a more progressive tax regime, avoid raising the share of gas to be sold to the home market, and establish a legal framework that both company managers and future generations of Tanzanians will trust.
- Topic:
- Gas, Regulation, Legislation, Tax Systems, Commodities, and State-Owned Enterprises
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Tanzania
30. Lessons for Generating Government Revenue for New and Prospective Liquefied Natural Gas Producers
- Author:
- Thomas Lassourd, Amir Shafaie, and Thomas Scurfield
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- The market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is changing fast, with increasing demand, new sources of supply, and a growing spot market. Over the last decade (2008 to 2018), LNG prices in the three main markets of North America, Western Europe and East Asia have diverged significantly at times, creating arbitrage opportunities for sellers. This briefing presents two case studies of developing countries that have faced challenges in securing public revenue from their natural gas industries. Trinidad and Tobago and Peru offer two examples of developing countries that faced challenges in maximizing government revenue from LNG sales during that time. Although LNG markets are evolving, these examples offer lessons for new and prospective LNG producers, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. A key area (and the focus of this briefing) is the valuation of LNG sales and the corresponding impact on government revenues. Governments should pay close attention to LNG project structure and the long-term LNG sale and purchase agreements between LNG producers and offtakers, especially when they are related companies. Governments should push for these agreements to maximize the price flowing back to the LNG plant and the upstream producer and should favor project structures that facilitate this. In particular, the practice of diverting LNG cargos to more lucrative export markets than the ones initially designated in offtake agreements should be regulated and monitored by governments to balance the financial incentives to LNG sellers with the interests of LNG-exporting countries. This will become increasingly important as the market becomes more liquid and sellers have more options.
- Topic:
- Government, Gas, Tax Systems, Commodities, and Revenue Management
- Political Geography:
- South America, Caribbean, Peru, and Trinidad and Tobago