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1. Fragile States and Aid Allocation for Sub-Saharan African Countries: An Empirical Research

Author:
Zeynep Arıöz and Hacer Soykan Adaoğlu
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
State fragility has received increasing attention in recent decades as a result of the nexus between development and international stability. This study investigates the empirical drivers of state fragility in sub-Saharan Africa from 2007 to 2019. We shed light on the explanatory variables of government effectiveness, political stability, per-capita GDP, grow GDP%, International Monetary Fund loans, and official development assistance. Using panel data analysis and a 39-country sample, our study finds that government efficiency and political stability, in contrast to foreign aid, has a significant effect on reducing fragility in sub-Saharan Africa. In light of these findings, the article proposes delivering foreign aid in ways that strengthen state capacity.
Topic:
Foreign Aid, Econometrics, International Institutions, and Fragility
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

2. State Fragility and Development Cooperation: Putting the Empirics to Use in Policy and Planning

Author:
Charles Martin-Shields and Diana Koester
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
State fragility, which describes how different components of a state do (or do not) function, is a central concept for understanding how development activities and policies in complex political, humanitarian and conflict-affected contexts will (or will not) work in practice. Using fragility as a lens, we use feminist development policy and forced displacement as examples to demonstrate how different empirical conceptualisations of fragility can be used to uncover potential challenges and identify opportunities for more comprehensive policy and programming. These examples are only two ways one can apply the concepts of fragility of the OECD and the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS). Indeed, these and other empirical concepts of state fragility have many applications and can be used to measure and understand state–society, conflict and humanitarian dynamics in myriad ways. The longest-running among these kinds of models is the Fund for Peace’s Fragile States Index (Fund for Peace, 2023). Other models focus on state fragility as a function of different aspects of “stateness”. This includes IDOS’s Constellations of State Fragility typology, which clusters types of fragility based on strengths/weaknesses in key dimensions of statehood (Grävingholt et al., 2019). Some organisations have moved beyond an exclusive focus on the functioning of the state, with the OECD currently defining fragility contexts as the combination of risks and insufficient coping capacities of multiple levels of governance systems and/or communities to manage, absorb or mitigate those risks (OECD, 2016). The IDOS and OECD concepts do not rank countries, and the methods used in both models allow them to be applied to different levels of analysis. Essentially, these empirical conceptualisations of state fragility can serve as useful heuristics for the policy-makers responsible for setting policy agendas in fragile contexts.
Topic:
Development, Fragile States, Fragility, Cooperation, and Development Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Fragility, Conflict, and Violence at the World Bank—Recommendations for the Spring Meetings

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Daniel Friedman, Betty N. Wainaina, and Céline Monnier
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
The World Bank Governors meet at the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Bank (WB) Spring Meetings this week to discuss progress on the World Bank’s Evolution Roadmap. Much of this discussion will focus on financing, including commitments to the hybrid facility and the prospects for the upcoming International Development Association (IDA) replenishment. Equally important, however, is whether and how the World Bank continues to play a leading role in international support to countries affected by fragility, violence, and conflict. In this piece, the authors provide recommendations for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings 2024, considering how the World Bank Evolution Roadmap addresses conflict, fragility, and violence; and the importance for the Bank to maintain its financial allocations to prevention in the upcoming International Development Association round of financing.
Topic:
Development, World Bank, Conflict, Violence, IMF, and Fragility
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Mapping Fragility – Functions of Wealth and Social Classes in US Household Finance

Author:
Orsola Costantini and Carlo D'Ippoliti
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Which households are more exposed to financial risk and to what extent is their debt systemically relevant? To provide an answer, we advance a new classification of the population, adapted from Fessler and Schürz (2017), based on the type of wealth families own and their sources of income. Then, we investigate data from eleven waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), a triennial survey run by the U.S. Federal Reserve, to explore the association of different debt configurations and motives to get into debt with our class distinctions. Our new approach allows us to assess competing hypotheses about debt and financial vulnerability that have so far been analyzed separately in disconnected strands of literature. The results of our study reinforce and qualify the controversial hypothesis that relative poverty and inequality of income and access to services have been important factors explaining household indebtedness and its relationship with economic growth over time.
Topic:
Debt, Poverty, Inequality, Finance, Fragility, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5. Neither Enough, Nor Adequate: A participatory assessment of the barriers to local access for climate finance in the Sahel

Author:
Norman Martin Casas, Ali Compaoré, and Ximena Michemberg
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Access to climate finance is a prominent feature of the debate for the upcoming COP29 decision to set a New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance. Countries, communities and groups representing marginalised collectives who are most impacted by the climate crisis are in urgent need of scaled-up, accessible and adequate climate finance. Findings from participatory research conducted with more than 100 organisations in the Sahel show that there are still numerous challenges to address in terms of how climate finance mechanisms are designed, how capacities need to be supported, how decision-making spaces affecting climate finance need to be more inclusive, and how gender, intersectional and geographical fragility factors shape unequal access to climate finance. In order to effectively bridge the climate finance access gap, rich countries need to make an urgent commitment to undertake concrete and bold actions to address climate finance access barriers for local actors in climate-vulnerable contexts.
Topic:
Climate Finance, Marginalization, Fragility, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
North Africa and Sahel

6. Promoting diaspora investment in fragile settings: The case of Somalia

Author:
Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief analyses the extent to which diaspora investment can support economic development and livelihoods, with a particular focus on fragile settings. Using the case study of Somalia, the brief explores some of the main advantages and risks associated with this tool. On the one hand, diaspora investment can channel finance into productive activities in the diaspora’s country of origin, supporting the creation of revenue streams, while also generating returns for diaspora investors. On the other hand, particularly in fragile settings, these investments can also undermine social cohesion and even increase the likelihood of violent conflict, especially if they are channelled along identity lines. On the basis of this analysis, the brief offers the following recommendations to donor governments interested in promoting diaspora investment in Somalia and beyond: (i) to ensure effectiveness, donors should gather comprehensive, in-depth data on the needs and preferences of both potential investors in the diaspora and investees in the country of origin; (ii) to avoid exacerbating tensions and conflict, donors should be as inclusive and transparent as possible in their engagement with stakeholders, most notably in the selection of beneficiaries; (iii) any efforts to promote diaspora investment in fragile settings should be grounded in a thorough understanding of the specific context in which they are implemented, in order to understand both the economic and political implications of such investment.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Diaspora, Investment, and Fragility
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

7. Unknown gunmen and insecurity in Nigeria: Dancing on the brink of state fragility

Author:
Tope Shola Akinyetun, Victor Chukwugekwu Ebonine, and Iyase Osariyekemwen Ambrose
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
There is a compelling need to address the protracted and recurring multidimensional insecurity in Nigeria. The prevalence of insecurity in the country is multipronged and caught in a cyclic web. Insecurity in Nigeria comprises insurgency, killer herdsmen, extrajudicial killings, ethnoreligious conflict, armed robbery, militancy, banditry, cybercrime and attacks by unknown gunmen, among other things. The incidence of attacks by unknown gunmen is pervasive and symptomatic of a fragile state where the government’s monopoly of force is challenged and where marginalisation, crises and contested spaces are ubiquitous. The thrust of this paper is that the menace of unknown gunmen is pervasive and threatens to plunge Nigeria into a cesspit of fragility. The argument is predicated on the conceptual and theoretical suppositions of a fragile state. To this end, the paper adopts the documentary method of data collection and uses qualitative descriptive analysis to expound on the phenomenon. The findings reveal that the words unknown gunmen – terminology that is used to describe the spate of insecurity in the country – are a bane to peaceful coexistence. The paper also shows that the insecurity caused by these armed attacks and other forms of threat is emblematic of a fragile state. Consequently, policy recommendations – state-building and peace-building – are proffered.
Topic:
Security, International Security, Conflict, Legitimacy, and Fragility
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

8. Addressing Fragility in Papua New Guinea

Author:
Erol Yayboke, Bridi Rice, Catherine Nzuki, and Anastasia Strouboulis
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Papua New Guinea (PNG) is one of five priority countries under the U.S. Global Fragility Strategy. The U.S. government has made a 10-year commitment to addressing fragility in PNG and is currently planning its approach. PNG presents unique operating challenges for the U.S. government’s implementation teams due to the complex factors driving fragility in the country and limited U.S. government presence on the ground. The key challenge facing policymakers is to generate clarity and consensus on what factors of fragility the United States will address, how the United States will develop a bespoke operating model in PNG, and who will be critical to these efforts.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, State Building, and Fragility
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific and Papua New Guinea

9. ‘If you want to go far, go together’ Community engagement and infrastructure development in fragile settings

Author:
Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In fragile and conflict-affected settings (FCAS), infrastructure development is a sharp double-edged sword: it can foster sustainable and inclusive development, but it can also exacerbate fragility and conflict. This brief argues that a substantial engagement of local communities has the potential to improve the conflict sensitivity of infrastructure efforts in FCAS. To ensure that these efforts have a positive impact on fragility dynamics, however, due attention should also be paid to the specific choices made in terms of project design and implementation. The brief offers a set of pragmatic considerations aimed at supporting practitioners navigating such choices. In addition, to ensure a proper tailoring of project choices to the specific context, practitioners should also rely extensively on conflict sensitivity analyses, monitoring the interaction between the project and the context’s underlying drivers of fragility throughout the whole project cycle. While so far CDD projects have mostly focused on small-scale infrastructure, efforts should be devoted to explore whether and how CDD approaches can be applied to larger infrastructure projects.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Fragility
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Advancing Women’s Work Amid Fragility and Conflict: What Works

Author:
Yvonne Quek
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
It is widely recognized that advancing women’s economic empowerment is central to gender equality, economic growth, and the realization of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Multilateral institutions, nonprofit organizations, development finance institutions, and governments have engaged in a range of programs to promote women’s economic empowerment. Existing types of interventions that address women’s economic empowerment include increasing girls’ financial inclusion and access to education, enhancing their livelihoods through skills-based training, and reforming discriminatory laws for women to gain access to land, employment, inheritance, and property. This study builds on a companion paper that sets out what we know about the current status and patterns of women’s economic opportunities in fragile and conflict-affected countries (FCA). It aims to provide insights into which interventions have worked or hold promise in increasing women’s economic opportunities. Based on a number of systematic reviews examining the effectiveness of interventions in low- and middle-income countries, we find that technical and vocational training—paired with some kind of internships, life-skills training, or cash transfers—can be effective in increasing women’s employability and income. However, the implementation of such programs can be costly, and measures of effectiveness are mixed.
Topic:
Women, Economy, Conflict, Empowerment, and Fragility
Political Geography:
Global Focus