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2271. Sanctions, Inspections, and Containment: Viable Policy Options in Iraq

Author:
David Cortright, Alistair Millar, and George A. Lopez
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
Concerns are growing that Iraq may be rebuilding its capacity to develop and use weapons of mass destruction. After more than three years without UN inspections, the uncertainties and risks associated with Iraq's weapons programs have increased. The urgency of these issues has prompted widespread calls for the resumption of UN weapons inspections, and has led U.S. officials to threaten military attack. The U.S. threats are also motivated by a desire to overthrow the government of Iraq. Pundits in the United States have raised a chorus of calls for military action to topple Saddam Hussein. Many leaders in the region support the goal of disarming Iraq, but as U.S. vice president Dick Cheney learned during his March trip to the Middle East, most of these same leaders oppose U.S. military action against Iraq. States in the region fear the consequences of a U.S.-led war, especially in light of the profound security crisis in the Middle East. These realities suggest the need for viable alternative strategies to resolve the Iraq crisis and protect regional security. This report presents policy options available to the United States for addressing security concerns in Iraq. It examines the issues associated with the threat of weapons development in the region and offers a series of policy options for reducing and containing that threat without resort to military force. The report does not dwell on the uncertainties and risks of waging war on Iraq without international consent. These have been amply examined in other articles and commentaries. The paper concentrates instead on robust alternatives to the use of force. The policy options outlined here include: Reforming UN sanctions to tighten controls on oil revenues and military-related goods while further easing restrictions on civilian economic activity; Facilitating the return of UN weapons inspectors to complete the UN disarmament mandate and reestablish an Ongoing Monitoring and Verification (OMV) system; and Creating an "enhanced containment" system of externally based border monitoring and control if Iraq refuses to allow the resumption of weapons inspections. The report begins with an assessment of Iraq's capacity for developing weapons of mass destruction. It then examines options for controlling Iraq's weapons potential through economic statecraft, United Nations weapons inspections and diplomatic engagement with neighboring countries.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

2272. Surprises, Challenges and Opportunities Since September 11

Author:
Paul G. Frost
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the spring 2002 meetings of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of challenges and potential surprises flowing from September 11 and its aftermath. As a starting point for the discussion, the March meeting of the Working Group debated the following main points: How has the world changed since September 11, and how enduring and deep-seated are the changes? Have key U.S. relationships changed? Has the U.S. itself changed? What are the main shifts in U.S. policy and the framework of U.S. policy debate since the terrorist attacks? What kinds of surprises might lie in store for U.S. policymakers as we pursue the war on terrorism as a unifying policy rubric? The second, May meeting focused on a range of surprise scenarios or unanticipated consequences born out of a current trendline in U.S. foreign policy. While the group does not make forecasts, some scenarios were judged more credible and more significant in the near to medium term than others. Where appropriate, the working group identified policies that could forestall the surprise or mitigate its effects.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

2273. The Phalcon Sale to China: The Lessons for Israel

Author:
Jonathan Adelman
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The Israeli decision, under intense American pressure, to cancel the sale of the Phalcon Airborne Early Warning System to China during the Camp David summit in July 2000 threatens to be a major foreign policy debacle for Israel.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:
China, America, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

2274. The New Cuban Immigration in Context

Author:
Max J Castro
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Cuban migration to the United States predates Fidel Castro's revolution by more than a century. As historian Félix Masud-Piloto writes, “The Cuban presence in Florida dates back to the 1830s when Cuban cigar manufacturers, trying to avoid high U.S. tariffs, relocated their operations in Key West.” 1 The wars of independence brought a substantial cohort of exiles. In the 1880s, the Cuban community of Key West would spawn a second Cuban immigrant community based on tobacco manufacture: Ybor City in Tampa, Florida. New York City, Philadelphia, and New Orleans also had significant Cuban emigré populations in the late nineteenth century.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, New York, Cuba, Latin America, Caribbean, and Florida

2275. Colombia's Conflicts: The Spillover Effects of a Wider War

Author:
Richard Millet
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In today's global village, there is no such thing as a purely national crisis. Every conflict has spillover effects, ranging from trade disruptions to refugee flows to violent clashes. In the past, it was common for nations to believe that promoting conflict in neighboring states could somehow enhance their security, but in the twenty-first century it has become increasingly obvious that conflicts in one nation constitute a security threat to all who share common borders. Today, it is more often the weakness rather than the strength of states that threatens to disrupt the search for peace and stability.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

2276. International — Steel Fortress

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The United States on March 5 announced tariffs on the vast majority of US steel imports. Despite rumours that he would impose moderate duties, US President Bush levied 30% tariffs on the types of steel accounting for about three-quarters of steel imports. Given that these duties follow hundreds of anti-dumping duties imposed on steel products over the past three years, the decision means that virtually no foreign steel will be sold in the United States. It will also have a host of unforeseen international consequences.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

2277. Staying the Course: Limitations in U.S. -China Relations

Author:
Gen. Jack N. Merritt
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The People's Republic of China (PRC). As of mid-2002, the PRC's policy is to emphasize the positive, stressing its desire for an improved – and hopefully more stable – relationship with the United States. This policy reflects China's recognition of the need for stability at a time of many challenges. In the next few years, the PRC leadership will be seeking to extend economic reform and build prosperity beyond the limited areas in big cities and the eastern provinces that have made great strides in recent years. China will need to adjust the economy to the market-opening demands that World Trade Organization (WTO) membership will bring and it will face the problem of moving successfully over the next decade through a transition in leadership without compromising the continued power of the Party leadership group.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

2278. Germany, Multilateralism,and the Eastern Enlargement of the EU

Author:
Claus Hofhansel
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Since World War II, the most distinctive characteristic of German foreign policy has been its commitment to multilateralism. This commitment has served German material interests, but it has a normative basis as well. This paper analyzes German domestic support for multilateralist policies, defined in terms of the principles of indivisibility, generalized principles of conduct, and diffuse reciprocity, in the context of negotiations on the EU's eastern enlargement. Empirically, the paper focuses on the policy areas of freedom of movement for workers and agriculture. The main theoretical argument is that domestic support for multilateralist policies depends on the distributional consequences of such policies and the ability of political institutions to manage distributional conflicts. Distributional conflict undermines support for multilateralist policies. In the case of Germany, distributional conflicts among different sectors and regions of the German economy have become more severe partly, but not exclusively, due to German unification. Furthermore, German political institutions are less able to resolve such conflicts than in the past. The evidence presented here shows more intense domestic distributional conflicts on the free movement of labor issue than over agriculture, and, as expected, we see more explicitly bilateral and less multilateralist demands by unions and employers.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Germany

2279. National Role Conceptions and Foreign Policies:France and Germany Compared

Author:
Ulrich Krotz
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
In spite of domestic and international political changes, French and German foreign policies have displayed high degrees of continuity between the late 1950s and the mid-1990s. Over the same time period, the directions of the two states' foreign policies have also continued to differ from each other. Why do states similar in many respects often part ways in what they want and do? This article argues that the French and German national role conceptions (NRCs) account for both of these continuities. NRCs are domestically shared understandings regarding the proper role and purpose of one's own state as a social collectivity in the international arena. As internal reference systems, they affect national interests and foreign policies. This article reestablishes the NRC concept, empirically codes it for France and Germany for the time period under consideration, and demonstrates comparatively how different NRCs lead to varying interests and policies across the major policy areas in security, defense, and armament.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

2280. Homeland Security: A Competitive Strategies Approach

Author:
F. G. Hoffman
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The much-reported 'end of history' was rudely shattered by the events of Sept. 11, 2001. America's illusion of security, sense of complacency, and triumphalism were abruptly dispelled by a series of brutal acts that were simply audacious and unfathomable. What used to be unthinkable is now apparently doable.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States