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72. Greece and the European Project: Canary in the Coal Mine?
- Author:
- Daniel V. Speckhard
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- After serving for two challenging years in the chaos of a war zone as the Deputy Chief of Mission in Iraq, I received word that I would become the next Ambassador to Greece. To be quite honest, I had mixed feelings. I looked forward to the challenge, but I imagined the post would be too sedate compared with the adrenalin-charged days and world-shaping events in Iraq. It was anything but. Within a year of my arrival, the streets were aflame with violent protests over a police shooting of a teenager. A year later, snap elections brought a socialist government to power. And soon thereafter, the onion was further peeled to expose a financial crisis and a crumbling economic foundation built on a corrupt, oligarchic, and debt-addicted system fed by billions of dollars of public and private EU loans and grants.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Economics, Politics, Financial Crisis, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
73. Just Enough, Just in Time: Improving Sovereign Debt Restructuring for Creditors, Debtors and Citizens
- Author:
- Richard Gitlin and Brett House
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Recent international financial turmoil — most notably in Greece — has refocused attention on the risks posed by severe sovereign debt crises and weaknesses in our approaches to restructuring sovereign debt. Since early 2010, these risks have driven a range of debt-related policy proposals and actions in individual economies, across regions and at the international financial institutions. While some incremental first reform steps have been taken, these have not yet produced a more efficient, effective or resilient international framework for handling severe sovereign debt crises and effecting sovereign debt workouts. In contrast, some institutional and policy changes made in the heat of the euro-zone crisis have raised as many questions as they have resolved. Old policy ideas are also being resurrected and configured in new ways for current challenges. After years of substantial fiscal stimulus and exceptional monetary policies, high debt burdens across the advanced economies, fears of secular stagnation, signs of an imminent increase in US borrowing costs and deteriorating demographics together make a compelling case for concerted action to improve international arrangements for dealing with distressed sovereign debt.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
74. Corporate Debt in Emerging Economies: A Threat to Financial Stability?
- Author:
- Barry Eichengreen, Domenico Lombardi, Malcolm D. Knight, Yu Yongding, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Diane De Gramont, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Phillip R. Lane, Ugo Panizza, and Viral V. Acharya
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- During 1999-2007, the international balance sheets of emerging economies grew stronger through a combination of current account surpluses, a shift from debt funding to equity funding, and the stockpiling of liquid foreign reserves. This risk-mitigating strategy improved the international financial standing of many emerging economies and helped these economies withstand the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. However, a combination of domestic and external factors has led to a partial reversal of this strategy, with some emerging economies accumulating significant external debt since 2010. Previewed by the May 2013 “taper tantrum,” there has been considerable speculation that a tightening of dollar-funding conditions and a macroeconomic slowdown in emerging economies may result in financial instability in some emerging economies.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
75. International Regulatory Cooperation on the Resolution of Financial Institutions: Where Does India Stand?
- Author:
- Renuka Sane
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- This paper provides a brief description of the principles of cross-border resolution that have emerged after the 2008 global financial crisis, and the progress that has been achieved. The paper then provides an overview of developments on resolution of financial firms in India. It finds that while there is cognizance of the need for international cooperation on resolution, the focus is on first developing institutional capacity on domestic resolution that can interact with the international community in the future. The policy choices of India may be reflective of the thinking in a large number of emerging markets, which considerably lag behind the more developed markets, partly due to lower interconnectedness and partly due to limited experience in domestic resolution.
- Topic:
- Development, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- India
76. Ukraine and the IMF's Evolving Debt Crisis Narrative
- Author:
- Susan Schadler
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Against the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) fraught experience with crises where debt restructuring is needed, Ukraine’s recent restructuring agreement has been a success. Several factors — in particular, Ukraine’s geopolitical position and the composition of its creditors — facilitated official support for the deal. As these are unlikely to be replicated in future debt crises, the IMF still needs a revamping of its policies and approach in crises requiring debt restructuring. This policy brief examines a number of key challenges in the evolution of a coherent role for the IMF in future crises.
- Topic:
- Debt, Political Economy, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine
77. The 2015 Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance
- Author:
- Domenico Lombardi and Kelsey Shanty
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The annual CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance assesses progress in five areas of international economic governance: macroeconomic and financial cooperation; cooperation on financial regulation; cooperation on development; cooperation on trade; and cooperation on climate change. In this year’s survey, 31 CIGI experts conclude that international economic arrangements continue to show a level of “status quo,” averaging a score of 50% across all five areas. The 2015 survey indicates a slight improvement to the result of last year’s survey, which suggested a minimal regression overall. The experts’ assessment of progress was most promising in the area of climate change cooperation, with an average score of 57%, whereas the least promising area was macroeconomic and financial cooperation, with a score of 44%, indicating minimal regression. The remaining three areas polled all fell within the “status quo” range, with trade at 46%, development at 48% and international cooperation on financial regulation at 53%. Interestingly, in the area of cooperation on development, CIGI’s experts provided a relatively mixed assessment. Responses varied based on experts’ perception of the effectiveness of current rhetoric, from 70% (indicating some progress) to 10% (suggesting major regression). Compared to last year, climate change governance has made the greatest improvement, but the remaining three areas (with the exception of development, which was not included in the 2014 survey) have all, on average, regressed further or remained stagnant. This trend is cause for concern.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
78. China’s Hidden Obstacles to Socioeconomic Rebalancing
- Author:
- Boy Lüthje and Christopher A. McNally
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The global financial crisis of 2008-09 led to a policy consensus in China that its socioeconomic development model needed rebalancing. China's rapid development has been based on extensive growth reliant on exports, low wages, environmental exploitation, and the manufacturing of cheap products. China's current plans identify paths to economic rebalancing through intensive growth driven by rising investment in new technologies and manufacturing processes, improved wages and skills, and improved worker and environmental protections. Two industries, automotive and information technology, demonstrate the experience of and opportunities for rebalancing. Both offer improved employment conditions with better wages, but continue to incorporate large swaths of low-wage employment with little protection for workers' health and the environment. Economic rebalancing in China, therefore, has so far only appeared in pockets. Institutional safeguards for wages and labor standards remain constrained by powerful alliances among multinational corporations, Chinese state-owned/private enterprises, and the Chinese state.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China
79. China’s Hidden Obstacles to Socioeconomic Rebalancing
- Author:
- Christopher McNally and Boy Lüthje
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The global financial crisis of 2008-09 led to a policy consensus in China that its socioeconomic development model needed rebalancing. China's rapid development has been based on extensive growth reliant on exports, low wages, environmental exploitation, and the manufacturing of cheap products. China's current plans identify paths to economic rebalancing through intensive growth driven by rising investment in new technologies and manufacturing processes, improved wages and skills, and improved worker and environmental protections. Two industries, automotive and information technology, demonstrate the experience of and opportunities for rebalancing. Both offer improved employment conditions with better wages, but continue to incorporate large swaths of low-wage employment with little protection for workers' health and the environment. Economic rebalancing in China, therefore, has so far only appeared in pockets. Institutional safeguards for wages and labor standards remain constrained by powerful alliances among multinational corporations, Chinese state-owned/private enterprises, and the Chinese state.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China
80. Revisiting the Latvian and Greek Financial Crises: The Benefits of Front-Loading Fiscal Adjustment
- Author:
- Anders Åslund
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses why Greece has done so poorly in comparison with all other European Union countries since the onslaught of the global financial crisis in 2008. To show what was wrong with its fiscal adjustment, this paper compares Greece with the other European Union country that was hit be the most severe fiscal crisis, namely Latvia. The conclusion is that front-loaded fiscal adjustment works much better. Greek economic policy has been a popular topic among opinion writers, notably Nobel Prize winner and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, who claimed that Greece suffered from austerity. Because of his prominence in the international public debate, I shall scrutinize his arguments on the Greek crisis. The paper also examines what policy the International Monetary Fund has pursued with regard to Greece, and how its views have been influenced by the debate and Greek economic developments. Finally, the paper assesses what lessons can be drawn from the contrasting experiences of Latvia and Greece. The conclusion is that a fiscal adjustment should be sufficient to resolve the crisis to restore confidence and that it should be as front-loaded as is practically and politically possible.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Finance, Economic growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Greece, and Latvia