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601. The FDI recession has begun

Author:
Karl P. Sauvant
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
With $1.8 trillion (according to UNCTAD), world foreign direct investment (FDI) flows reached an all-time high last year. All major regions benefitted from increased flows. But that was then. What is, and will be, the impact of the financial crisis and the recession on FDI flows this year and next?
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis

602. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae: An Exit Strategy for the Taxpayer

Author:
Arnold Kling
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The Fannie Mae-Freddie Mac crisis may have been the most avoidable financial crisis in history. Economists have long complained that the risks posed by the government-sponsored enterprises were large relative to any social benefits.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

603. The End of Monetary Dominance? How Crises Can Influence Monetary Policy Decisions and Institutions

Author:
Pierre L. Siklos
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Has the global financial crisis made monetary policy more powerful, or it has exposed its limitations? For the most part, the answer is the former, at least today, but the outlook may not be so rosy. When the former British Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan, was asked what were the greatest challenges he faced, he replied: “Events, my dear boy, events.” We have certainly witnessed in the last year a series of events that are challenging policy makers as well as their beliefs about how monetary policy ought to be conducted in future. Indeed, these same events may come to haunt the monetary authorities, and we may well see a return to a period when monetary policy was subservient to a fiscal policy that steps in, ostensibly to impose order on an apparently unruly private sector. Central banks, among other players, appear to have unwittingly put in place the conditions necessary for what we can now confidently call the perfect storm of 2008. There were several observers who predicted that a train wreck was looming on the horizon. Indeed, perhaps most stunning of all, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), created from the ashes of World War I and which quickly became the forum for central bank cooperation, a role it continues to fill to this day, had repeatedly warned about the troubles that lay ahead. “…these facts also suggest that the magnitude of the problems yet to be faced could be much greater than many now perceive” (BIS Annual Report, 2008: 9). The failure of central banks to act on these warnings may come back to haunt them in the near future.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Britain

604. Anatomy of a Train Wreck: Causes of the Mortgage Meltdown

Author:
Stan J. Liebowitz
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Independent Institute
Abstract:
Why did the mortgage market melt down so badly? Why were there so many defaults when the economy was not particularly weak? Why were the securities based upon these mortgages not considered anywhere as risky as they actually turned out to be? This report concludes that, in an attempt to increase home ownership, particularly by minorities and the less affluent, virtually every branch of the government undertook an attack on underwriting standards starting in the early 1990s. Regulators, academic specialists, GSEs, and housing activists universally praised the decline in mortgage-under- writing standards as an “innovation” in mortgage lending. This weakening of underwriting standards succeeded in increasing home ownership and also the price of housing, helping to lead to a housing price bubble. The price bubble, along with relaxed lending standards, allowed speculators to purchase homes without putting their own money at risk. The recent rise in foreclosures is not related empirically to the distinction between subprime and prime loans since both sustained the same percent- age increase of foreclosures and at the same time. Nor is it consistent with the “nasty subprime lender” hypothesis currently considered to be the cause of the mortgage meltdown. Instead, the important factor is the distinction between adjustable-rate and fixed-rate mortgages. This evidence is consistent with speculators turning and running when housing prices stopped rising.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Minorities
Political Geography:
United States

605. New York City's Preparedness for Terrorism (and Catastrophic Natural Disasters)

Author:
Clark Kent Ervin
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Sooner or later, somewhere or other, another natural disaster will strike America, be it a hurricane, a tornado, an earthquake, or a flood. Sooner or later, somewhere or other, terrorists will attempt to strike America again. Indeed, many experts believe that the threat of another attack is rising. 1 Al Qaeda is resurgent, having reconstituted itself along the Afghan-Pakistan border. 2 And, recent history shows that terrorists are especially prone to strike during the transition from one administration to another or early in the term of a new government. Adding to our vulnerability, the nation is now bogged down in two wars and groaning under mounting debt, while our economy is sinking from the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Topic:
Security, Natural Disasters, Financial Crisis, and Al Qaeda
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States of America

606. Foreign Exposure to Asset-Backed Securities of U.S. Origin

Author:
Daniel O. Beltran, Laurie Pounder, and Charles Thomas
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The financial turmoil which began in August 2007 originated, in part, because investors reassessed the quality of the assets underlying many asset-backed securities (ABS), particularly U.S. mortgages. The prominence of European banks in the early stages of the turmoil created the perception that foreigners held an outsized share of risky U.S. securities and prompted questions of why Europeans were so exposed. This paper evaluates that perception by quantifying foreign exposure to ABS with U.S. underlying collateral. Using the latest survey data on foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. securities, we find that the ultimate losses that foreigners could incur arising from U.S. underlying assets are small relative to most scale variables, although initial total mark-to-market losses are estimated to be significantly larger. Among other reasons for this difference between ultimate and initial losses, we demonstrate that the securitization chain can amplify mark-to-market price declines in the presence of uncertainty or illiquidity. Finally, we show that, relative to the size of the market, foreigners’ holdings of U.S. mortgage-backed securities do not appear to be elevated compared with their holdings of other U.S. assets.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Financial Markets, and Mortgages
Political Geography:
United States and North America

607. The Asian Financial Crisis, Uphill Flow of Capital, and Global Imbalances: Evidence from A Micro Study

Author:
Brahima Coulibaly and Jonathan Millar
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This study assesses the role of the Asian Önancial crisis of the late 1990s in the emergence and persistence of the large current account surpluses across non-China emerging Asia, which have been a signiÖcant counterpart to the U.S. current account deÖcit. Using panel data encompassing nearly 3,750 Örms, we trace the current account surpluses to a marked and broad-based decline in corporate expenditures on Öxed investment in the aftermath of the crisis that cuts across a wide spectrum of countries, industries, and Örms. The lower corporate spending in turn depressed aggregate investment rates, widened the saving-investment gap, and allowed the region to turn into a net exporter of capital. We then consider the factors behind this reduction in postcrisis corporate investment. While weaker Örm-level fundamentals in the postcrisis period seem to explain part of the drop in investment rates, ongoing re-structuring owing to large debts accumulated and excess investment undertaken in the run-up to the crisis has been the main source of restraint postcrisis corporate investment. The results suggest that even after a decade, the e§ect of the Önancial crisis is still a§ecting corporate investment decisions in emerging Asia, and that as the restructuring completes its course, investment rates will likely rise to contribute to a gradual reduction in the regionís current account surpluses.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Economic Inequality, and Investment
Political Geography:
Asia

608. Fostering Economic Growth through a "European" Debt

Author:
Maria Teresa Salvemini
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
There is a general consensus that the long period of stagnation that has afflicted the European economy is a symptom of more profound structural problems that cannot be solved with expansionary macroeconomic demand policies, much less left up to market forces or financial rigour. The most important problem is the low productivity of European economies, which has now been recorded for many years. This low productivity can be explained in a number of ways, including inadequate public investment in both physical and human capital. Although the link between public investment and productivity and efficiency in the private sector is indirect, and therefore cannot always be precisely quantified, there can be no doubt that the effect of market failures are being felt in numerous sectors of the economy: advanced and applied research, training in information technologies, environmentally compatible infrastructure, low-yield and capital-intensive investments, to mention just a few. Thus, there is room for new development policies based on building the public capital – material and immaterial – which is needed to stimulate that growth of productivity in the private sector that economic theory and historical experience have found to be important.
Topic:
Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

609. How Regulatory Reforms in Sweden have boosted Productivity

Author:
Espen Erlandsen and Jens Lundsgaard
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The economic crisis in the early 1990s prompted action on reforming the Swedish welfare state and its institutions, including deregulation of a wide range of product markets. In that way, Sweden took early action compared to other OECD countries currently struggling with how to make public finances more robust in an ageing context. The reforms that were implemented during the 1990s are now paying off in terms of productivity and GDP growth. Empirical evidence suggests that deregulation has delivered a considerable “productivity dividend”. Although significant progress therefore has been made, renewed regulatory reform is needed to safeguard Sweden’s ambitious public policy goals. Efforts should focus on improving enterprise formation and labour utilisation, as well as on providing better value for money in the public sector by raising its efficiency and delivering high quality services.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Reform, Regulation, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Sweden, and Scandinavia

610. Stormy Days on an Open Field: Asymmetries in the Global Economy

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Openness is not necessarily good for the poor. Reducing trade protection has not brought growth to today's poorest countries, and open capital markets have not been good for the poorest households in emerging market economies. In this paper I present evidence on these two points. First, countries highly dependent on primary exports two decades ago, despite their substantial engagement in trade and a marked decline in their tariff rates in the 1990s, have failed to grow. Second, within high-debt emerging market economies the financial crises of the last decade, whether induced by domestic policy problems or global contagion, have been especially costly for the poor (in welfare terms if not in terms of absolute income losses). I discuss the asymmetries in the global economy that help explain why countries and people cannot always compete on equal terms on the “level playing field” of the global economy.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Financial Crisis