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1. Heat and Hate: Climate Security and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Africa

Author:
Ulrich J. Eberle, Dominic Rohner, and Mathias Thoenig
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the impact of climate shocks on violence between herders and farmers by using geolocalized data on conflict events for all African countries over the 1997-2014 period. We find that a +1℃ increase in temperature leads to a +54% increase in conflict probability in mixed areas populated by both farmers and herders, compared to +17% increase in non-mixed areas. This result is robust to controlling for the interaction between temperature and ethnic polarization, alternative estimation techniques, disaggregation levels, and coding options of the climatic/conflict/ethnic variables. When quantifying at the continental level the impact on conflict of projected climate change in 2040, we find that, in absence of mixed population areas, global warming is predicted to increase total annual conflicts by about a quarter in whole Africa; when factoring in the magnifying effect of mixed settlements, total annual conflicts are predicted to rise by as much as a third. We also provide two pieces of evidence that resource competition is a major driver of farmer-herder violence. Firstly, conflicts are much more prevalent at the fringe between rangeland and farmland - a geographic buffer of mixed usage that is suitable for both cattle herding and farming but is particularly vulnerable to climate shocks. Secondly, information on groups' mobility reveals that temperature spikes in the ethnic homeland of a nomadic group tend to diffuse its fighting operations outside its homeland, with a magnified spatial spread in the case of conflicts over resources. Finally, we show that violence is substantially reduced in the presence of policies that empower local communities, foster participatory democracy, enforce property rights and regulate land dispute resolution.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Conflict, Violence, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa

2. Revisiting the determinants of non-farm income in the Peruvian Andes in a context of intraseasonal climate variability and spatially widespread family networks

Author:
Carmen Ponce
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
Non-farm income sources are increasingly important in the developing world, representing up to 50 percent of average rural household income. Although there is a vast literature on the determinants of rural households’ strategies for income diversification, two factors associated with long-term transformations and common to many developing countries, have not yet been integrated into the analysis: (i) the role of intraseasonal climate variability (affected by climate change), and (ii) the role of family networks located in distant areas (increasingly important given population displacement due to the internal conflict and increasing connectivity via roads and communications). Whereas an increase in climate variability entails an increase in risk and vulnerability for farm activities, family networks located in distant regions(that do not share the local climate or market shocks) may become a key asset for managing risk and fostering income opportunities (as long as they convey information and opportunities that are not available through local networks). Given the market imperfections that are common in developing rural areas—especially those related to climate risk management—explicit consideration of both factors is key to understanding rural households’ diversification strategies. The study aims to contribute to this pending agenda, investigating the role of these two factors on a household’s income diversification into non-farm activities in the Peruvian Andes, a mountain region with large intraseasonal climate variability and limited but increasing spatial connectivity, where the rural population was severely affected by the internal conflict that took place in the country during the eighties and nineties.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, Rural, Industry, Ecology, and Farming
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

3. Adaptation to climate change in the tropical mountains? Effects of intraseasonal climate variability on crop diversification strategies in the Peruvian Andes

Author:
Carmen Ponce
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
Crop diversification, selection of tolerant crops, and intercropping are some of the strategies that Andean farmers, as well as farmers in other mountain regions, have historically used to cope with climate-related risks and take advantage of heterogeneous agricultural land (with plots located at different altitudes, facing different environmental conditions). This study analyzes the role of climate variability —during the growing season— in the use of these strategies, in a context of climate change in the Andean region. Using agrarian census data from 1994 and 2012 (district panel), the author finds that —controlling for other climate conditions and socio-economic factors—, an increase in intraseasonal climate variability leads farmers in colder areas (<11˚C during the growing season) to concentrate their crop portfolio into more tolerant crops and reduce intercropping (a practice potentially efficient at controlling pest and disease). This effect is especially strong in the Southern region. Given that Andean farmers received little to no help to adapt to climate change during the period under analysis, this study informs about farmers’ autonomous adaptation to climate changes and some specific issues that need to be part of the public intervention agenda.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Rural, Economic Development, Land, Ecology, and Farming
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

4. Preventing Cattle Raiding Violence in South Sudan: Local level peace building focusing on young people

Author:
Richard Chilvers
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Within and Without the State (WWS), a programme funded by the UK Department for International Development, has been working in South Sudan since 2012 to improve the relationship between citizen and state. This case study describes the efforts of Community Empowerment and Progress Organization, a WWS partner, to work with young people in cattle raiding camps and support local communities to find their own solutions for peace. In the midst of a renewed outbreak of violence just two days before the country’s fifth anniversary, supporting local level peace initiatives remains as vital as ever.
Topic:
Peace, Cattle, Farming, Ranching, and Raiding
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

5. Do Public Transfers Discourage Farmer Participation in Subsistence Crop Production? Empirical Evidence from Botswana

Author:
Tebogo Seleka and Khaufelo Lekobane
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
We analyze the impact of public food and cash transfers on farmer participation in Botswana’s subsistence arable agriculture. The results indicate that publicly provided social pensions and food packages (rations) reduce the probability of participation in subsistence crop farming. Engagement in paid off-farm employment, which is sometimes facilitated through a public works programme (PWP), also discourages farmer participation in the subsistence economy. Therefore, public food and cash transfers and the PWP yield work disincentive effects in Botswana’s subsistence agriculture. This is because transfers are usually consistent and regular in Botswana, impacting on household behaviour. The design of social protection policies should therefore consider such potential disincentive effects on the agricultural sector.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economic Development, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana