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1. Not yet Trump-proof: an evaluation of the European Commission’s emerging policy platform

Author:
Heather Grabbe and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The economic strategy being defined by the 2024-2029 European Commission seems to follow the prescriptions on innovation and single market reform, and the expansive approach to industrial policy, set out by Mario Draghi in his September 2024 report on European Union competitiveness, with two important differences. First, the Commission stops short of calling for World Trade Organisation-prohibited subsidies – this is welcome. Second, the Commission proposes a new state aid framework for national industrial policy rather than expansion of EU-level public investment funding. This runs the risk of weakening the single market and harming competition, with the unintended consequence of protecting incumbents and inhibiting structural change. In terms of specific policies, on defence, the Commission is right to face up to the challenge of defining an EU procurement mechanism that offers sufficient speed and cost advantages to justify large-scale funding. On economic security and international partnerships, the Commission is right to take a broader approach than a foreign economic policy focused only on supply chains. What is lacking is a much greater commitment to providing support for climate mitigation in developing countries. The second Trump presidency creates risks for the Commission strategy. President Trump has gone further than expected in threatening territorial expansion and with the speed, aggression and disregard for the rule of law with which he has started to implement his policies. These factors will complicate the EU-United States relationship. The best defence against both Trump and the competitive and security threats posed by China is to accelerate policies that address the EU’s structural weaknesses: raising productivity growth, defence capacity and economic security. Economic security, in turn, requires more resilient trade relationships, less financial dependence on the US and an improved standing with emerging market and developing economies. The EU should also seize the opportunity offered by the shift in US policy from subsidies to deregulation. While the EU should not race Trump to the bottom on environmental or financial deregulation, it should rapidly improve its own regulatory framework while building on its core strengths: human capital and the rule of law. Unlike tariff wars or discriminatory subsidies, a competition to provide a good business environment is not a zero-sum game.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Industrial Policy, Budget, European Union, Digital Economy, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, Sustainability, European Commission, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

2. Reinforcing EU merger control against the risks of acquisitions by big tech

Author:
Mario Mariniello
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Since 2000, online platforms that are now within the scope of the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), have bought nearly 700 small, promising companies worldwide. However, only 19 of their attempted acquisitions were notified to the European Commission, the authority exercising merger control over deals with a substantive EU connection. In the other cases, the acquired target’s turnover did not meet the conditions for merger notification. These acquisitions have happened in the context of digital markets becoming increasingly concentrated, leading to speculation that concentration levels might have been lower had some of those acquisitions not taken place. The harm that the concentration of market power in a handful of American digital companies may cause is magnified by the current position of the United States, which aims to shield platforms from regulatory enforcement. Acquisitions of small companies may have pro- or anti-competitive effects. Established market players may buy startups to become more competitive or to supply a higher quality product or service, ultimately benefitting final users. Mergers may also incentivise innovation and attract venture capital. However, incumbents might also acquire small companies with strategic, anti-competitive objectives. They might want to stop challengers to their market power from emerging in the future. Or they might acquire small companies to prevent competitors from relying on the target’s supply to complement their competing products. Moreover, competition authorities struggle to make accurate predictions about the evolution of competitive dynamics in new and complex markets, such as digital markets. Authorities thus may be unable to take the correct decision, even if the merger is notified. Responding to these issues hinges on amending the DMA. The European Commission should be empowered to scrutinise any acquisition performed by the large platforms within the DMA scope (currently, the DMA requires these platforms to inform the Commission of any intended concentration, but envisages no other action). Moreover, the burden of proving that the merger is not harmful should be shifted to the large platforms. This would leverage market players’ knowledge to help increase the accuracy of merger decisions in a highly dynamic and uncertain environment.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Microeconomics, Big Tech, European Commission, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

3. European and Tunisian Migration Policies: A Recipe for Failure and Suffering

Author:
Refugees International
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
After several months of significant increase in irregular migration from Tunisia to Europe, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, along with several other European Union leaders, have set their sights on what they seem to believe is the best way to produce immediate results: increasing the provision of cash, equipment and training to the Tunisian security forces (TSF) to diminish the country’s booming irregular migration industry. In the last two months, the European Commission announced it wants to agree to “new anti-smuggling operational partnerships” with Tunisia[1] that would significantly scale up border controls, police and judicial cooperation, as well as cooperation with EU agencies (for example, Frontex). An “International Conference on a global alliance to counter migrant smuggling” was also convened in Brussels on 28 November.[2] As one top EU official in Tunis put it to Refugees International, “There is a strong desire by some in Europe to get the maximum amount of resources possible to the Tunisian government and security forces as soon as possible to stop the boats, now and in the future”.[3] The EU intended strategy, however, appears destined for failure, falling short of its narrow objective of suppressing irregular migration and lacking in the broader – and more important – criteria of adherence to legal commitments, human rights principles and effective overall migration policy. This approach is riddled with four primary deficiencies.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Refugees, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, Tunisia, and Mediterranean

4. Overcome divisions and confront threats: Memo to the Presidents of the European Commission, Council and Parliament

Author:
Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
In the last five years, the European Union managed to find its way through a series of major shocks, including the pandemic and the 2022 surge in energy prices. The response was in many ways remarkable, including unprecedented EU borrowing to fund the NextGenerationEU economic recovery programme and a coordinated reduction in energy demand. However, these crises have left the EU in a bruised state. The pandemic recession and energy-support measures have squeezed fiscal space. Higher energy prices have persisted and EU industrial competitiveness has been eroded. The productivity and per-capita income gap with the United States has widened. Meanwhile, the world around the EU has become more threatening and fragmented. The military situation in Ukraine remains precarious. China has become both more authoritarian and more assertive. The US shift toward protectionism has become entrenched. There is less consensus for measures to combat climate change. In the face of all this, the challenges confronting you are substantial. In the next five years, you must continue to support Ukraine while implementing measures to reinvigorate EU growth, meet the 2030 climate targets and lay the ground for meeting the 2040 goals, and secure faster emissions reductions beyond the EU’s borders. Social cohesion needs to be restored to head off threats to the EU model. More needs to be done to improve EU external security. Promoting growth and enhancing cohesion will entail further deepening of the single market in areas with the highest growth impact, doing more to support innovation and defending competition, openness and multilateralism. Safeguarding the European Green Deal means boosting green industrialisation and fair burden-sharing, while scaling up international climate finance. Strengthening security requires continued support for Ukraine and the addressing of economic security risks. Underpinning all of this, a serious effort must be made to improve EU governance – and it must be done without creating further division.
Topic:
Security, European Union, European Parliament, European Commission, Energy, Regional Politics, Competition, European Council, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Europe

5. Demographic Jigsaw: Puzzling Out a Resilient EU

Author:
Maria Gargano
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In December 2019, for the first time, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen assigned a portfolio containing demography as a policy area to Vice-President Dubravka Suica. As the predictions for the European Union are currently looking at a continent whose population median age is rising increasingly fast, the mission letter tasked the Vice-President to lead the response to the challenges presented by the demographic shift. The modus operandi indicated was to be supporting all the groups concerned – especially the children, the old and those living in rural areas. However, this portfolio’s objectives were not supported by an EU-specific competence to act on demography, nor a dedicated budget or service in the Commission. Also at Member States level, this matter remains scattered around different national ministries dealing with health, territorial planning, regional, interior, among others. Nonetheless, the different areas and groups of the population impacted by demographic changes have presented in the past four years multiple entry-points for the European Commission to promote initiatives such as: the care strategy, the child guarantee and lastly the demography toolbox.
Topic:
Demographics, European Union, Resilience, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

6. AI Unleashed or Tamed? Decoding Europe’s Bold Leap with the AI Act

Author:
Arianna Jater
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
2023 saw a boom in generative Artificial Intelligence (AI). However, such a rapid expansion revealed the unpreparedness of governments to handle the unprecedented impact AI systems have on the core values of democratic societies. The European Commission’s AI Act has emerged as the first binding legislation of its kind. It is already clear, however, that simply ratifying the Act will not solve the next challenges. Among those, the immediate one is to ensure that the new AI rulebook is enforced on the national level and that Member States have the resources necessary. Then, the Act, and any future AI legislation, will need to constantly adapt to the ever-changing developments in technology, which now seem to move at a faster pace than ever before. Interdisciplinary approaches and new research disciplines will be needed to analyse the correctness and safety of AI systems, as well as to evaluate their impact on society. Last but not least, the private sector — already employing or only exploring the possibility of introducing AI systems — will need strong support to remain compliant. This brief outlines the state of the EU’s AI Act, discusses concerns within Europe, examines the position taken by the Estonian technology sector and government, and explores the future direction the regulation might take.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Regulation, Legislation, Artificial Intelligence, Private Sector, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe and Estonia

7. Eco-nomics: A green industrial policy for the next European Commission

Author:
Susi Dennison and Mats Engström
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The new European Commission will seek to improve Europe’s capacity to manufacture green technologies. Member states agree on this headline aim, but they are divided on how to achieve it and the level of priority to give it. Some member states want to double down on building an effective green industrial policy, others place greater priority on keeping down the costs of green technology and so believe that they need to continue to import some green technologies from outside Europe, at least for now. The EU can ill afford this diversity of approaches. To benefit from economies of scale, it needs to act as a bloc. To move the union beyond national approaches, the European Commission should spearhead a common strategic understanding of the challenge it faces, put in place a credible financial package for research and development for the next green technology wave, and prioritise a limited number of areas for innovation over the next decade.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, European Union, Green Technology, European Commission, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

8. A Win-Win: Migration Partnerships for an Aging EU Workforce

Author:
Helen Dempster, Pete Baker, and Samuel Huckstep
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
European Union (EU) member states have ambitious green transition targets and healthcare strategies in place, requiring the relevant sectors to expand. Yet these sectors are already suffering from large workforce shortages. Expanding skilled migration from third countries to the EU to meet these shortages risks stripping countries of origin of the talent they need for their own goals. Any skilled migration therefore needs to be pursued within partnerships which prioritise meaningful benefits to the country of origin to combat “brain drain”, a “win-win” policy solution. This can be done through the Global Skill Partnership model, wherein the country of destination pays for the training of workers within the country of origin, some of whom migrate. While migration is a member state competence, there is real opportunity for the incoming European Commission to make a global difference in three ways: (1) expand funding for pilot projects; (2) support the development of new partnerships; and (3) be a positive voice for the role of skilled migration.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Skilled Labor, European Commission, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. What to take away from the European law on artificial intelligence

Author:
Thaima Samman and Benjamin De Vanssay
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On top of all these initiatives and legislations, the European Commission has proposed two directives to the regulation on Artificial Intelligence (“Artificial Intelligence Act”, hereafter AI Act) is a landmark piece of EU legislation in the field of AI. One of its primary aims is to regulate the use of this technology in a number of areas based on a risk-based approach. In that respect, the AI Act sets gradual obligations for the different parties involved in the AI value chain depending on the level of risk that the use of AI raises in concrete use cases. The AI Act should therefore be viewed as a targeted intervention, and not a cross-cutting legislation like the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). The AI Act was adopted by EU co-legislators in May 2024 and will enter into force 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal of the European Union on July 12. It will apply from August 2, 2026. Meanwhile, the Commission has launched the AI Pact, a voluntary initiative inviting AI providers to comply with the key obligations of the AI Act in advance of its entry into force.
Topic:
Law, European Union, Artificial Intelligence, Value Chains, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

10. The von der Leyen Commission 2.0: Institutional Features, Portfolios and Mission Letters

Author:
Spyros Blavoukos and Dimitrios Kollias
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The policy brief outlines the strategic vision and structural reorganisation of the European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen’s second term. Emphasising “Security, Prosperity, and Democracy,” von der Leyen’s Commission 2.0 consolidates power through a streamlined, centralised structure with six Executive Vice-Presidents, aiming for a more responsive and efficient EU. Each Commissioner has been assigned specific, often overlapping, missions focusing on key areas such as the Green Deal, technological sovereignty, and European defence. This centralisation marks a shift toward a more presidential model, raising concerns about governance complexity and missed opportunities for deeper citizen engagement and clearer portfolio distinctions. At the same time, it constitutes the core strategic approach to addressing the EU’s complex priorities. Vision: President Ursula von der Leyen prioritises “Security, Prosperity, and Democracy,” aiming for a responsive, flexible, and efficient European Union. New Commission Structure: The von der Leyen Commission 2.0 introduces a centralised structure with six Executive Vice-Presidents, removing traditional Vice-Presidents to streamline leadership. Mission Letters: Each of the 26 Commissioners-designate received specific missions, with major focuses on the Green Deal, technological sovereignty, industrial sovereignty, and European defence. Presidentialisation: The Commission’s structure reflects increased centralisation, reinforcing von der Leyen’s authority and moving towards a presidential model. Challenges: Overlapping portfolios (e.g., environment, defence, and competitiveness) create complexity and redundancy across roles. Missed Opportunities: The new structure lacks a dedicated focus on EU governance reform and clearer citizen engagement pathways, which could enhance responsiveness to public concerns​. Strategic Approach: The persistent overlap of portfolios necessitates a centralised, streamlined structure to improve governance and address the EU’s complex priorities
Topic:
Institutions, European Commission, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe