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1421. Assessing Vulnerabilities to the Effects of Global Change: An Eight-Step Approach

Author:
Colin Polsky, Dagmar Schröter, and Marybeth Long Martello
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
There is a growing call among researchers interested in studying global change and associated effects on society and ecosystems to examine vulnerabilities as well as impacts. Such a move would require a renewed emphasis on the factors that constrain and enable coupled human - environment systems to adapt to stress. Although a picture is emerging of what general factors global change vulnerability assessments should address, it is less clear what methods are needed for this endeavor. This paper presents results from a workshop held in October 2002 to explore the issue of methods and models for vulnerability assessments. The results include an objective for global change vulnerability assessments, a set of five information criteria that vulnerability assessments should satisfy for achieving this objective, and a set of eight steps designed to satisfy those criteria. The proposed objective for global change vulnerability assessments is to inform the decision - making of specific stakeholders about options for adapting to the effects of global change. The five criteria for achieving the objective are that vulnerability assessments should: engage a flexible knowledge base, be place - based, consider multiple and interacting stresses, examine differential adaptive capacity between and within populations, and be prospective as well as historical. The eight steps for satisfying the criteria are: define the study area in tandem with stakeholders, get to know places over time, hypothesize who is vulnerable to what, develop a causal model of vulnerability, find indicators for the components of vulnerability, weight and combine the indicators, project future vulnerability, and communicate vulnerability creatively. We expect most readers to identify some of the steps as self - evident and part of their well - established disciplinary practices. However, most readers should also identify one or more steps as uncommon to their research traditions. Thus taken together the eight steps presented here constitute a novel methodological framework.
Topic:
Security, Environment, Human Welfare, and Treaties and Agreements

1422. Africa's Discontent: Coping with Human and Natural Disasters

Author:
Robert I. Rotberg
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The inhabitants of tropical Africa in 2003 demand higher levels of performance from their governments than they could, or dared to do, in the 1970s and 1980s, a decade or two after independence from colonial rule. Nowadays they suffer despots reluctantly, as in Zimbabwe, deny them unconstitutional third terms, as in Malawi and Zambia (but not in Togo), gleefully vote for more promising rulers, as in Ghana and Kenya, or insist al- most everywhere on improved governing and government.
Topic:
Civil War, Environment, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Zambia, and Ghana

1423. Strengthening Linkages Between U.S. Trade Policy and Environmental Capacity Building

Author:
John Audley and Vanessa Ulmer
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
ATTENTION TO TRADE-RELATED TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE and capacity building (TCB) has surged as people from all walks of life explore how the global trade regime can be structured to better promote equitable, sustainable human development. TCB strengthens developing countries' human, physical, and institutional capacities to participate in trade negotiations, implement trade commitments, and benefit from integration into the global trading system. Given the Bush administration's goal to “ignite a new era of global economic growth through free markets and free trade,” capacity building has become an important component of U.S. bilateral, regional, and multilateral trade negotiations.
Topic:
Environment and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1424. Trade Preferences and Environmental Goods

Author:
Scott Vaughan
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
For the World Trade Organization (WTO), the most important development in a decade related to trade-environment linkages is the agreement to liberalize commerce in environmental goods and services. If properly executed, the agreement will increase the availability of “green” goods in global markets and break the North-South deadlock that has paralyzed discussions on the trade regime governing such goods.
Topic:
Environment, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

1425. Clean Air for Asia - China - India - Japan - United States Cooperation to Reduce Air Pollution in China and India

Author:
Richard L. Lawson, John R. Lyman, Donald L. Guertin, Tarun Das, Shinji Fukukawa, and Yang Jike
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For China and India, rapid economic growth is imperative to alleviate poverty, raise income levels and improve their citizens' quality of life. In 2000, China and India's combined populations of 2.3 billion represented over 38 percent of the world's population. With both countries determined to grow their economies rapidly, there will be an associated rapid rise in energy demand. One of the most significant problems facing the two countries is the existing and increasing level of air pollution that will accompany growing energy consumption. This report focuses on the challenge of developing economic, energy, and environmental policies that will complement existing policies designed to reconcile the drive for economic growth with the need for greater environmental protection of air quality.
Topic:
Economics and Environment
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, India, and Asia

1426. Canada as a Minor Ally: Operational Considerations for Relations with the United States

Author:
Christopher Sands
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Good morning. I want to thank the organizers of this year's Canadian Crude Oil Conference for bringing me out here to join you today. Albertan hospitality is hard to beat, and for a kid from Detroit, I am happy to say that I had the chance to live here as a temporary Albertan one summer. My Dad is a professor of geography and urban planning, and one summer our family relocate d to Alberta while he researched a book on the patterns of suburban development in four cities: Edmonton, Calgary, Phoenix, and Houston. It was a great adventure for me, especially camping and hiking in Banff and Jasper. You will get a sense of how long ago this was when I tell you that my souvenir from that summer was a t-shirt with Chewbacca, C3PO, and R2-D2 posing with a bear.
Topic:
Energy Policy and Environment
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, and North America

1427. U.S.-Mexico Binational Council Report: U.S-Mexico Transboundary Water Management: The Case of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo

Author:
Armand Peschard-Sverdrup and Meghan Bishop
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Although the highly publicized water dispute between the United States and Mexico has focused attention in both nations on the issue, the need to address comprehensively the problem of water scarcity and water quality is not one that is limited to the U.S.-Mexico border region. In fact, water scarcity is increasing around the world and approaching crisis conditions in many regions. It is a phenomenon that is impacting the lives of a growing number of the world's people. According to the United Nations, 31 countries in the world are currently facing water stress and scarcity. Over 1 billion people have no access to clean drinking water, and almost 3 billion people have no access to sanitation services. It is estimated that today 166 million people in 18 countries suffer from water scarcity, while another 270 million in 11 additional countries are considered "water stressed." By the year 2025, the world's population will have increased by more than 2.6 billion, but as many as two-thirds of those people will be living in conditions of serious water shortage, and one-third will be living with absolute water scarcity. By 2025, the affected populations will increase to about 3 billion people, or about 40 percent of the world's population, most of them in the poorest countries. As a result of this daunting diagnosis, there is now a consensus that the severity of the problem requires a strategic approach that emphasizes equitable and sustainable management of water resources.
Topic:
Environment
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and North America

1428. The Politics of the Environment

Author:
Karlyn H. Bowman
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Democrats lead Republicans by a substantial margin nationally as the party best able to handle environmental issues, as the first table in this collection shows. The second table looks at the power of the issue on Election Day. In 2000, for example, 9 percent of voters nationwide told exit pollsters from the Los Angeles Times that the environment was one of the top two issues for them in casting their vote. These voters pulled the lever for Gore over Bush, by 76 to 12 percent. As in elections past, other issues were more important to larger numbers of voters. In the 2000 Los Angeles Times exit poll, almost four times as many voters (35 percent) checked morals/ethical values as the top issue for them on the exit poll ballot.
Topic:
Environment, Government, Science and Technology, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Los Angeles

1429. 'Self-fulfilling geopolitics'? - or: the social production of foreign policy expertise in Europe

Author:
Stefano Guzzini
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper sketches the very first research hypotheses and methodological framework for exploring the puzzle why at the peaceful end of the Cold War, more militarist versions of realism and decidedly geopolitical thought have known a comeback in different European countries while not in others. It proposes a constructivism-inspired analysis which, in a sequence, explores geopolitics as an intellectual tradition, an expression of state interests, and of identity politics. It proposes to analyse the actual revival (and/or the lack of) via a sociological process-tracing inspired by already existing institutionalist approaches yet embedded in an application of Bourdieu's field theory to 'foreign policy'. Needless to say that the most important part needs still to be done, both on the methodological level (the concrete framework) and on the comparative empirical analysis which necessarily asks for a collaborative teamwork.
Topic:
Agriculture, Environment, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

1430. Living with a Climate in Transition: Pacific Communities Plan for Today and Tomorrow

Author:
Eileen Shea
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Earth's climate is in a state of flux. Whether in terms of relatively short-term shifts, called climate variability, or long-term climate change associated with greenhouse gases, consequences of changing climate conditions appear unprecedented. Losses due to weather-related disasters have soared recently—especially in the Pacific, where island environments, societies, and infrastructures are particularly vulnerable. For generations, human response to climate events has been just that: response after the fact to phenomena that neither residents nor scientists adequately understood. Now, a growing body of information about the causes of climate events is enabling Pacific Islanders and others to anticipate events and move past being victims to become informed planners. This new knowledge can only be successfully applied via dynamic partnerships between science and society. Particularly promising is the emerging field of climate risk management, in which disaster management and climate science communities unite, forming model partnerships to plan for the inevitabilities linked with the planet's variable and changing climate.
Topic:
Environment and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific