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311. Aid Disaggregation, Endogenous Aid and the Public Sector in Aid-Recipient Economies: Evidence from Côte d'Ivoire

Author:
George Mavrotas and Bazoumana Ouattara
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The present paper examines the impact of different aid types, namely project aid, programme aid, technical assistance and food aid on the fiscal sector of the aid-recipient economy by using time-series data for Côte d'Ivoire over the period 1975–99. Empirical results obtained by estimating correctly the solution of the theoretical model show that when a single value (or aggregated) for aid is used, foreign aid is fully consumed in the case of Côte d'Ivoire. However, results obtained under the assumption of aid heterogeneity clearly suggest that the government responds differently according to the nature of the aid inflows. Our approach sheds plenty of light on how the aid-recipient government reacts to different categories of foreign aid inflows and the empirical findings clearly demonstrate the importance of the aid disaggregation approach for delving deeper into aid effectiveness issues.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
Africa

312. Financial Sector Development — Futile or Fruitful? An Examination of the Determinants of Savings in Sri Lanka

Author:
George Mavrotas and Roger Kelly
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper documents the financial and institutional developments of China during the past two decades, when China was successfully transformed from a rigid centralplanning economy to a dynamic market economy following its unique path. We empirically examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in China by employing a panel sample covering 31 Chinese provinces during the important transition period 1986-2002. Our evidence suggests that the development of financial markets, institutions, and instruments have been robustly associated with economic growth in China.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South Asia

313. Financial Sector Reforms and Savings Mobilization in Zambia

Author:
George Mavrotas and Samuel Manzele Maimbo
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper explores the relationship between financial sector reforms and savings mobilization in Zambia. Although there exists an extensive literature on financial sector development and savings levels in developing countries, there does not seem to exist satisfactory work on the above nexus for sub-Saharan African countries, particularly Zambia. Along these lines, the paper examines the linkages between the financial reforms of the early 1990s and savings mobilization. It considers the characteristics of banks and non-bank financial institutions, especially micro finance institutions, and savings levels and identifies problems associated with the relatively poor performance of savings in recent years and concludes with a set of policy guidelines for strengthening savings mobilization, highlighting the expected effect on povertyreducing growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and Nordic Nations

314. Savings and Financial Sector Development: Panel Cointegration Evidence from Africa

Author:
George Mavrotas and Roger Kelly
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper uses different measures of financial sector development for a dynamic heterogeneous panel of 17 African countries to examine the impact of financial sector development on private savings. An innovative econometric methodology is also employed related to a series of cointegration tests within a panel. This is an important contribution since traditional panel data analysis adopted in previous studies suffers from serious heterogeneity bias problems. The empirical results obtained vary considerably among countries in the panel, thus highlighting the importance of using different measures of financial sector development rather than a single indicator. The evidence is rather inconclusive, although in most of the countries in the sample a positive relationship between financial sector development and private savings seems to hold. The empirical analysis also suggests that a change in government savings is offset by an opposite change in private savings in most of the countries in the panel, thus confirming the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. Liquidity constraints do not seem to play a vital role in most of the African countries in the group, since the relevant coefficient is negative and significant in only a small group of countries
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

315. The Composition of Aid and the Fiscal Sector in an Aid-Recipient Economy: A Model

Author:
George Mavrotas and Bazoumana Ouattara
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Building on recent work in the fiscal response literature, the present paper develops a new fiscal response model, which, for the first time in the relevant literature, combines the ideas of both endogenous and disaggregated aid. We endogenized aid on the grounds that the recipient government has some influence over aid disbursements. Regarding aid disaggregation, it is argued that each of the main four categories of aid, namely project aid, programme aid, technical assistance and food aid may exert different effects on the recipient economy. Furthermore, in case the preferences of the aid-recipient government are higher for some of these types of aid, neglecting aid disaggregation would lead to aggregation bias in the results and conclusions. The model adds an important new dimension to the vast aid effectiveness literature and calls for further modelling as well as empirical work in this promising research area so that significant policy implications can be derived.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Non-Governmental Organization, and Poverty

316. A Holistic Perception of Foreign Financing of Developing Countries' Private Sectors: Analysis and Description of Structure and Trends

Author:
Matthew Odedokun
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The study seeks to identify donor-specific factors that cause donors to delay aid disbursement, and to apply a double standard in dealing with the non-compliance of a recipient with regard to aid conditionalities, a practice that promotes uncertainty in the receipt of aid. Annual panel data over 1970-2000 for the 22 members of OECD's DAC donor group are employed in the empirical study. Our findings suggest that the proportion of pledged aid being disbursed, which shows an increasing trend, is positively affected by the extent to which aid is procurement-tied and by the size of the donor government's expenditure in relation to GDP. On the other hand, the proportion of aid commitments being disbursed, which appears lower for the G7 countries, is negatively influenced by factors such as abundant donor generosity, the predominance of grants in total aid, the specific targeting of aid to lower-income recipients, high growth in donor economy, as well as high level of checks and balances, and polarization between the executive and legislative branches of government in the donor country.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Non-Governmental Organization

317. Empirical Investigations of Inflation Targeting

Author:
Yifan Hu
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
A growing number of countries have anchored their monetary policy to an explicit numerical rate or range of inflation since such an inflation targeting framework was first adopted by New Zealand in 1989. This paper empirically investigates issues associated with inflation targeting using a dataset of 66 countries for the 1980–2000 period.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
New Zealand

318. Convergence Club Empirics: Some Dynamics and Explanations of Unequal Growth of Unequal Growth across Indian States

Author:
Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper documents the convergence of incomes across Indian states over the period 1965 to 1998. It departs from traditional analyses of convergence by tracking the evolution of the entire income distribution, instead of standard regression and time series analyses. The findings reveal twin-peaks dynamics-the existence of two income convergence clubs, one at 50 per cent, another at 125 per cent of the national average income. Income disparities across states seem to have declined over the 1960s, only to increase over the subsequent three decades. The observed polarization is strongly explained by the disparate distribution of infrastructure, and that of education, and to an extent by a number of macroeconomic indicators; that of capital expenditure and fiscal deficits.
Topic:
Economics and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

319. Institutional Quality, Reforms and Integration in the Maghreb

Author:
Mina Baliamoune-Lutz and Tony Addison
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Using panel data this paper examines the effects of institutions on the success of reforms and integration in the Maghreb. Institutional quality measures are developed using fuzzy-set based transformations of civil liberties and political rights. We posit that these transformations are quite appropriate given the nature of freedom indicators. We show that using fuzzy-set transformed measures provides useful insights regarding the quality of institutions in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. Furthermore, our empirical results suggest that institutions play a significant role in the success or failure of economic reforms. This conclusion is in clear contrast to views that propose a sequencing in which civil liberties and political rights should come after economic reforms are already in place and fully operational.
Topic:
Economics and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Algeria, North Africa, Morocco, and Tunisia

320. Strengthening Financial Sector Governance in Emerging Markets

Author:
Robert Litan, Michael Pomerleano, and V. Sundararajan
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Policymakers and analysts are still sifting through the wreckage of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the subsequent crises in Russia, Turkey, and Argentina to discern key lessons so that similar crises will not recur. Some lessons are by now well understood. Pegged exchange rates can encourage excessive borrowing and expose countries to financial collapse when foreign exchange reserves run dry. Inadequate disclosures by both private companies and public bodies can lead to similar dangers. Although many factors undoubtedly contributed to these crises, it is now widely recognized that each suffered from a failure in “governance,” and in particular a failure in governance in their financial sectors. Accordingly, the World Bank Group, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Brookings Institution devoted their fourth annual Financial Markets and Development Conference, held in New York from April 17-19, 2002, to the subject of financial sector governance in emerging markets. This conference report summarizes some of the highlights of the conference, whose full proceedings will be published as a Brookings book in the fall of 2002.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, New York, Turkey, Asia, and Argentina